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re: Assume LSU wins out and Aggy loses to Texas
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:59 pm to VeryReauxna_ish
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:59 pm to VeryReauxna_ish
People downvoted you but every scenario I ran had LSU in the SECCG if they win out
1
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:07 pm to VeryReauxna_ish
quote:
If LSU wins out they’ll 100% be in Atlanta.
I don't think that's true. I think if LSU, A&M and UGA win out, we end up in a 3 way tie at 7-1 in conference. Then the first tiebreaker is head to head competition amongst the tied teams. Our loss to A&M puts us out and UGA and A&M in the SECCG.
So yes, an Aggy loss to anyone is needed in addition.
Still, we need to win out. If so we should be in the playoffs with a good chance at the SECCG. Would be awfully entertaining to hear the Longhorn fans outrage when we get into the SECCG in front of them.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:09 pm to TheWalrus
LSU Tenn and Aggies win out
Lsu is 3rd
Lsu is 3rd
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:23 pm to Nodust
Says LSU is 2nd when I try that, based on record vs common opponents
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:28 pm to TheWalrus
I was just playing with different scenarios
. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
2. Tennessee (7 - 1)
Below Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
3. LSU (6 - 2)
Above Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
4. Georgia (6 - 2)
Below LSU based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
5. Alabama (5 - 3)
With S Carolina, above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469).
Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).
6. S Carolina (5 - 3)
With Alabama, above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469).
Below Alabama based on head-to-head record (0-1).
7. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
With Missouri, below Alabama and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219).
Above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
8. Missouri (5 - 3)
With Ole Miss, below Alabama and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
Below Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
9. Texas (4 - 4)
. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
2. Tennessee (7 - 1)
Below Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
3. LSU (6 - 2)
Above Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
4. Georgia (6 - 2)
Below LSU based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
5. Alabama (5 - 3)
With S Carolina, above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469).
Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).
6. S Carolina (5 - 3)
With Alabama, above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469).
Below Alabama based on head-to-head record (0-1).
7. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
With Missouri, below Alabama and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219).
Above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
8. Missouri (5 - 3)
With Ole Miss, below Alabama and S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4063).
Below Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
9. Texas (4 - 4)
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:29 pm to MrWalkingMan
If LSU wins out, they are in... Why is this so hard to grasp?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:31 pm to Nodust
Maybe I had lsu with another loss. Idk. Toi many variables.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:34 pm to Raging Tiger
[embed]Imo we do not want this. If OM wins out then they’ll get a bye and a playoff spot.[/embed]
I generally agree, third place is the way to go.
Unfortunately if LSU loses to Alabama but wins the others, they are *probably* going to finish 5th in the conference (barring some unexpected upsets)...and 5th probably means we miss the playoffs. Even 4th isn't a sure-in (though I agree the SEC will *usually* get 4 bids).
There just aren't many scenarios where LSU ends up 3rd. Most end up 1st, 2nd, or 5th.
Of course, if we beat Alabama but then lose to Vandy, Florida or OU, then maybe it ends up better. I didn't run those scenarios.
I generally agree, third place is the way to go.
Unfortunately if LSU loses to Alabama but wins the others, they are *probably* going to finish 5th in the conference (barring some unexpected upsets)...and 5th probably means we miss the playoffs. Even 4th isn't a sure-in (though I agree the SEC will *usually* get 4 bids).
There just aren't many scenarios where LSU ends up 3rd. Most end up 1st, 2nd, or 5th.
Of course, if we beat Alabama but then lose to Vandy, Florida or OU, then maybe it ends up better. I didn't run those scenarios.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:36 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:Because it isn't true. The first tiebreaker is the record of all the tied teams against each other. If A&M is part of the tie, that loss knocks us out.
If LSU wins out, they are in... Why is this so hard to grasp?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:48 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
if LSU, A&M and UGA win out, we end up in a 3 way tie at 7-1 in conference. Then the first tiebreaker is head to head competition amongst the tied teams. Our loss to A&M puts us out and UGA and A&M in the SECCG.
That’s incorrect. LSU losing to A&M does not put UGA ahead of LSU.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:07 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
Because it isn't true. The first tiebreaker is the record of all the tied teams against each other. If A&M is part of the tie, that loss knocks us out.
That isn't how it works if there is 3 or more teams tied. I really don't feel like explaining this again. If LSU wins out, they are in. Doesn't matter what Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, or Aggys do. It also doesn't matter what happens about the conference opponent win %. I made a post in SEC Rant last week giving two 4 way tie scenarios. 3 way works a similar way.
4 way tie scenarios
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:18 pm to LSUbasketballfan
H2d won’t count in 3 or 4 way tie cause LSU and Texas A&M didn’t play Georgia so common games tiebreak then opponents winning percentage
Only Common opponent:
Florida 4-0
Next opponents winning percentage:
LSU: 23 - 20
Georgia: 17 - 25
* Texas A&M: 15 - 20
* Texas : 19 - 25
* = Texas / Texas A&M winner
If season ended today LSU would play in the conference championship game
If Texas A&M: they will be the home team based on H2H
If Texas: LSU will be the home team based on opponents winning percentage
If Georgia: LSU will be the home team based on opponents winning percentage
Only Common opponent:
Florida 4-0
Next opponents winning percentage:
LSU: 23 - 20
Georgia: 17 - 25
* Texas A&M: 15 - 20
* Texas : 19 - 25
* = Texas / Texas A&M winner
If season ended today LSU would play in the conference championship game
If Texas A&M: they will be the home team based on H2H
If Texas: LSU will be the home team based on opponents winning percentage
If Georgia: LSU will be the home team based on opponents winning percentage
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:31 pm to DocBugbear
We get the nod over Georgia since we beat Bama In this scenario
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:13 am to MrWalkingMan
Pretty sure if LSU, Texas, and Georgia all win out then it would be a Texas-Georgia rematch in Atlanta? In that scenario we "Should" get in the playoffs?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:53 am to WhiteMandingo
quote:
LSU is going to Atlanta if they win out. They have the tie breaker in all scenarios to my knowledge even if Texas am wins or loses.
We prefer a win the we get Am again w/ an automatic 1st round bye
wait.... if LSU wins out and TAMU wins out, they will meet again in Atlanta for the SEC title game and a first round playoff bye???? how could you not want this as a LSU fan... LSU would destroy TAMU if they were to play them again... especially on a neutral field...
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:20 pm to LSUTigresFan
quote:I know this is how it used to work (i.e. in a 3 team tie if all didn't play each other, you move on), but everything I've seen in the press states otherwise (namely that the records amongst only the tied teams are used). I hope you are right, but we might need clarification.
That isn't how it works if there is 3 or more teams tied. I really don't feel like explaining this again.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:37 pm to MrWalkingMan
quote:
Neither make Atlanta. Aggy has the H2H but LSU’s resume is better. Who gets the playoff nod?
Fuk here we go again every damn day
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:49 pm to Raging Tiger
quote:
If OM wins out then they’ll get a bye and a playoff spot.
OM is not beating GA.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 1:26 pm to LSU4Life2021
And even if ole piss wins out, they won’t go to the sec championship unless LSU loses. The only teams that get byes are the top 4 conference champs.
Just win and it all works out.
Just win and it all works out.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 1:49 pm to JeffSpartan85
Winning out, then loosing in the SECCG and missing the playoffs would absolutely suck.
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