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All three 2018 teams with an 18-12 sec record got a regional
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:34 pm
Something to ponder before tomorrow’s game.
This post was edited on 5/18/19 at 12:20 am
8
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:35 pm to da prophet
I hope we can shed some losses then.
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:39 pm to da prophet
Every year is different, as it also depends on who else is doing what around the country. 18-12 is a very good number. The overall record, coupled with the poor record on the road, won't sit well with the committee if LSU goes one and done in the SEC tournament. If we win tomorrow and Tuesday, I think we should have a regional, and if we win tomorrow and two in the tourney, it should be a lock, imo.
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:41 pm to da prophet
Pretty sure Moscona said only once did a team go 18-12 and not host. LSU, as bad as some of the games are, has a high sos and high rpi wins.
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:43 pm to da prophet
Might wanna edit that thread title...
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:47 pm to Metaloctopus
quote:
Every year is different, as it also depends on who else is doing what around the country. 18-12 is a very good number. The overall record, coupled with the poor record on the road, won't sit well with the committee if LSU goes one and done in the SEC tournament. If we win tomorrow and Tuesday, I think we should have a regional, and if we win tomorrow and two in the tourney, it should be a lock, imo.
Our RPI is in a good spot at 20 and we now have 19 wins against top 50 RPI teams, more than anyone we’re competing with for the last regional host.
A win tomorrow all but gaurantees a regional host imo. Especially with Ole Miss losing at least 2 of 3 to Tennessee.
We win tomorrow and we play our regional in Baton Rouge.
We lose and we probably need to at least win Tuesday
Posted on 5/17/19 at 9:57 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
Our RPI is in a good spot at 20 and we now have 19 wins against top 50 RPI teams, more than anyone we’re competing with for the last regional host.
A win tomorrow all but gaurantees a regional host imo. Especially with Ole Miss losing at least 2 of 3 to Tennessee.
We win tomorrow and we play our regional in Baton Rouge.
We lose and we probably need to at least win Tuesday
It's probably 50/50 that either of us are right.
I'm aware of where the RPI is, and the top 50 wins, but more goes into it than that. They will look at road record, and some of the top 50 wins look a little less impressive as teams in our conference have been on a slide. So while a win tomorrow COULD be enough, I don't think it's close to a lock.
LSU had an RPI somewhere around the mid 30's in 2011, and missed the tournament completely. You just never know how much the RPI matters from year to year to the committee. That's why I think we need at least two more wins after tonight to lock it in.
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:01 pm to CottonWasKing
Yep. Win one of the next two, and we are guaranteed a regional host
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:04 pm to Metaloctopus
Please name any the teams that could host over lsu if lsu wins tomorrow. Ill wait. I have a feeling you dont know how weak the hosting field is
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:15 pm to josh336
quote:
have a feeling you dont know how weak the hosting field is
Exactly.
I mean we’re competing with teams like Santa Barbara who have not PLAYED AGAINST a SINGLE top 50 RPI team all season.
We have 19 wins against against top 50 teams (which is top 3 in the country) and we’re competing against them, Creighton (5-1 top 50), Miami (11-12), North Carolina (9-8).
We’re in a very good spot already. If we win tomorrow that’s 20 wins against the top 50. That’s a solid fricking resume
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:27 pm to josh336
quote:
Please name any the teams that could host over lsu if lsu wins tomorrow. Ill wait. I have a feeling you dont know how weak the hosting field is
Right now there are about 20 to 21 teams in the mix for a host site. Probably 10 or 12 are a lock. If LSU falters and a handful of teams like Texas Tech, Baylor, NC State, and Florida State all make runs in their tournaments, then LSU could fall behind them. I'm not saying they SHOULD fall behind them, I just know the history of the baseball committee. It is a highly subjective process, and depending on how they view LSU, and their inconsistent play, don't just assume that pure numbers will win out.
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:28 pm to Metaloctopus
When its close i get that logic, right now its not close. Go ahead and post the hypothetical resumes of all those teams, youll see that lsu is ahead of all of them
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:32 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
Exactly.
I mean we’re competing with teams like Santa Barbara who have not PLAYED AGAINST a SINGLE top 50 RPI team all season.
We have 19 wins against against top 50 teams (which is top 3 in the country) and we’re competing against them, Creighton (5-1 top 50), Miami (11-12), North Carolina (9-8).
We’re in a very good spot already. If we win tomorrow that’s 20 wins against the top 50. That’s a solid fricking resume
The resume IS solid. But do you really have confidence that the committee will value that as much as they should over the amount of losses we have? And again, that's just right now. I'm saying two more wins. IF LSU loses two in a row, you're looking at 34-23. There isn't much precedent for a host team having that kind of record. I think we need to improve the optics with just a couple of more wins, and then I'll be confident.
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:33 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
We win tomorrow and we play our regional in Baton Rouge. We lose and we probably need to at least win Tuesday
Hester and his crew have been saying this for the last three days on his show.
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:38 pm to josh336
quote:
When its close i get that logic, right now its not close. Go ahead and post the hypothetical resumes of all those teams, youll see that lsu is ahead of all of them
They have a better resume, but significantly more losses. Obviously, common sense says that if those other teams played better competition, they'd have more losses. But the committee cannot be relied on to always see it that way. Especially if those teams make runs in their tournaments, and LSU goes 1 and done. It's possible we host anyway, but I'm not confident. Not with this committee.
Y'all are poo pooing UC Santa Barbara, because they don't play anyone, but neither did teams like Coastal Carolina and ULL who have gotten not just host sites in the past, but national seeds, with similar resume's. LSU is not jumping a team like that, whether we agree with the committee or not.
This post was edited on 5/17/19 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:43 pm to Metaloctopus
quote:
Y'all are poo pooing UC Santa Barbara, because they don't play anyone, but neither did teams like Coastal Carolina and ULL who have gotten not just host sites in the past, but national seeds, with similar resume's. LSU is not jumping a team like that, whether we agree with the committee or not.
Those teams weren’t competitive against teams with Top 3 strength of schedule with 20 top 50 wins, I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I would almost gaurantee it.
The remaining field is weak and LSU is by far the strongest team left and we also have the draw of a regional in Baton Rouge. Let’s be honest, every year except 2011 the committee has been favorable towards a regional in Louisiana.
Am I 100% certain we get a regional if we win tomorrow? No of course not we could get fricked but we most likely won’t.
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:45 pm to Metaloctopus
That coastal team and that ull team played multiple top 50 rpi teams, this ucsb team has played zero top 50 teams, and even if they have....lsu still hosts. It would require like 4 teams to go on. Large winning streaks and win their conference tourneys, and then, it would still be close
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:47 pm to CottonWasKing
If lsu wins tomorrow, id put my posting privledges on the line of them hosting
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:48 pm to da prophet
18-12 is guaranteed host. I’ll bet my house on it.
Posted on 5/17/19 at 10:56 pm to josh336
quote:
That coastal team and that ull team played multiple top 50 rpi teams, this ucsb team has played zero top 50 teams, and even if they have....lsu still hosts. It would require like 4 teams to go on. Large winning streaks and win their conference tourneys, and then, it would still be close
By multiple, do you mean a handful of midweek games against in state teams? And I mentioned those teams because not only did they host, they got national seeds.
I'm just reminding you guys of how the committee falls in love with the little guys, and gaudier records. I can dig up al of the resume's and present a case for LSU to host that would seem impenetrable. But then, the committee doesn't rely on all raw numbers.
We all agree that LSU is at the very least close to a lock. I am simply of the opinion, that more is needed to declare it a lock.
At any rate, let's keep winning and
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