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re: 4th & 2 with 15s Left in the Half
Posted on 9/3/25 at 7:58 am to Salamander_Wilson
Posted on 9/3/25 at 7:58 am to Salamander_Wilson
You always take the three on the road.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:02 am to Shiftyplus1
quote:this isn’t a Kelly or LSU thing. Analytics, for good or bad, think the play for 7 is the right call. I’m sure macro data supports that, but I wanted the three too
He's made that kind of call several times while at LSU. He's too greedy for 6
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:03 am to Salamander_Wilson
Do the analytics factor in that you just wasted your last timeout to “think about it”.
Hated the decision, but it blows my mind even more that college football coaches have to call timeouts to think about what play they want to call on a 4th and short. How do you not already have a set of plays that you like for this exact situation and you just pick one you like given the flow of the game. I did that for fricking middle school football yet we see the “think about it” timeout in college football nearly every game.
Hated the decision, but it blows my mind even more that college football coaches have to call timeouts to think about what play they want to call on a 4th and short. How do you not already have a set of plays that you like for this exact situation and you just pick one you like given the flow of the game. I did that for fricking middle school football yet we see the “think about it” timeout in college football nearly every game.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:04 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Analytics can lead you astray. Play the flow of the game instead.
Especially when not taking points has bitten you in the arse multiple years in a row.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:09 am to Salamander_Wilson
I mentioned in the game thread, he was thinking at the time that he has got last years Defense and I will need to out score them in a shootout, like majority of LSU games last 2 years. But his defense is light years better then that squad and now he will feel comfortable taking the points, and less 4th down going for it.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:14 am to Salamander_Wilson
no clue why this post is getting so many down votes. Had we completed the pass and gotten a first down there would have been maybe 7-8 seconds left on the clock. The most likely thing would be spike the ball and then have 1 play for a TD and then decide on FG or go for it again. After the last 3 years of leaving points on the field in first halves of openers you should just take the FG and go into half with some momentum. I haven't talked to one LSU fan that thought it was a good call.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:14 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
Is anyone else a bit concerned that our 10 million dollar coach didn’t understand that in the moment?
That was brutal. At least he admitted it today. Even if we get the first we are scrambling to spike the ball then maybe have time for a FG.
Common fricking sense.. throw the analytics in the trash and use your brain, Brian
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:15 am to Honkus
Also I was at the game and missed the coin toss.
Did we win and take the ball or did Dabo defer?
Did we win and take the ball or did Dabo defer?
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 8:21 am
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:20 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
it was the wrong call due to not having much time even if you convert.
Before the time out I can defend it. Once you burn the time out, you have to kick.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:22 am to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
Given the RESULTS and hindsight, kicking was the correct call no matter how it may or may not have worked out.
however, and i'm not saying it was the right call, but if he doesn't fumble. spike the ball. PI on green in the endzone. run it from the 1. i think anyone would be happy with that. we have a coach trying to maximize his players in the opportunities given to them\him. sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
i support BK for the most part, but i think he had no problem admitting fault since we won. had we lost, he may have dug in on the decision at the time to capture some momentum.
its a feel, its a trust, and in BK's case, sometimes its an arrogance to show his players he's got their back. luckily this one didn't bite us.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:24 am to Salamander_Wilson
There's analytics then there is in game feel of situations. Can't always go by "data".
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:24 am to Salamander_Wilson
This may not be relevant but there is a distinct generational difference in my house regarding this type of thing. I believe that you almost always take the points in the first half. You don’t know how valuable those free 3 points could be later in the game.
My young adult son believes that if you have 4th down and short in the red zone, you always go for it. He loved the call (even with the result), while I was ranting how stupid it was to pass up 3 points in a close, defensive type game.
My young adult son believes that if you have 4th down and short in the red zone, you always go for it. He loved the call (even with the result), while I was ranting how stupid it was to pass up 3 points in a close, defensive type game.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:26 am to Salamander_Wilson
I think that was a bit of CYA yesterday for what he knows was a bad decision. I three straight openers LSU has gone for it on 4th down deep in the opponent's territory and came up empty. They also lost all three games. At some point you have to change course. Given LSU won by only one score it would have been nice to have those additional 3 points. Just like it would have in 2022 and 2024.
I don't think BK, individually, had a good game. The great defense covered up several questionable decisions.
I don't think BK, individually, had a good game. The great defense covered up several questionable decisions.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:26 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
I was screaming that at the TV in real time.
Im sure you were the only one smart enough to figure it out in real time
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:30 am to Salamander_Wilson
I really don’t care about “analytics”. Too close of a game to waste easy points. If this happens again in the future I hope LSU takes the points if it’s a close game.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:46 am to BugAC
quote:
I don't mind him going for it. What i do mind is throwing a backwards pass in that situation. That was just shitty playcalling. Slants, outs, roll out to the right, do something other than throw it behind you when you need 2 yards in front of you at the goal line.
One of the film studies guessed this might have been an audible at the line by Nuss because of the defensive setup pre-snap. He was definitely making some changes before the play. They loaded the box and we had already had some success on screens, so it’s plausible.
If this is the case, the biggest issue wasn’t the call, but who it was to. Nuss needs to know that Hilton just isn’t that guy. If that ball goes to Anderson or Thomas it’s a first down at worst and possible a TD. Hilton slipped before a defender got to him and never regained his balance. The play was over before it started because of him not being able to work in tight space as well as others.
The FG was absolutely the right call, but if you are going to be aggressive and give Nuss the keys to the offense, he needs to understand matchups there. He likely made the call to go to a bad one. Better to throw to the end zone and quickly throw it out the back to preserve the FG if Clemson had it covered.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:55 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
Kelly said yesterday that the analytics sheet told him to go for it, but in hindsight it was the wrong call due to not having much time even if you convert.
I was screaming that at the TV in real time.
Is anyone else a bit concerned that our 10 million dollar coach didn’t understand that in the moment?
Someone (Moscona I think) actually aske a good follow up question about it later. It was along the lines of now that you have seen your defense play do you go against the analytics and he said "Yes." And then gave an example of later in the game when we punted the analytics said go for it. But since he knew how well our defense was playing the better decision was to kick and not follow the analytics.
If you listen to what he is actually saying across the entire press conference you can tell that at the half he basically followed the analytics because he was still feeling the team out. But as the game wore on he overrode the analytics based on the flow of the game. .
Posted on 9/3/25 at 9:07 am to FireGoodell
quote:
The good thing is that it happened game 1, so he’ll know what to do when we get in similar situations going forward
------- doubtful
Posted on 9/3/25 at 9:08 am to Salamander_Wilson
I like the decision, I didnt like the play call.
Posted on 9/3/25 at 9:27 am to Salamander_Wilson
[quote]Is anyone else a bit concerned that our 10 million dollar coach didn’t understand that in the moment?[/quot
Very concerned. Because its was such a no-brainer to take the points and its not the first time he's butchered similar situations. Its eerily similar to Miles' constant inability to manage late game/half clock management. People ignored it because we would end up winning the game despite the incompetence. Its going to eventually cost us a game. Though arguably it may already have done that with the USC game last year.
Very concerned. Because its was such a no-brainer to take the points and its not the first time he's butchered similar situations. Its eerily similar to Miles' constant inability to manage late game/half clock management. People ignored it because we would end up winning the game despite the incompetence. Its going to eventually cost us a game. Though arguably it may already have done that with the USC game last year.
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