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re: 24-23 But Who Did He Beat?

Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:43 am to
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:43 am to
quote:

Les has then lost only three games when tied or leading going into the 4th Q because he is 102-26 at LSU,


The stat isn't going into the 4th quarter, it's trailing at any time in the 4th quarter.

Off the top of my head, games we've lost when tied or leading going into the fourth quarter, 2005 to present:

2013: Georgia? (don't remember score going into the 4th, think we were tied)
2012: Clemson
2012: Florida? (think their first TD was in the 4th)
2010: Auburn? (not sure if tied or trailing going into the 4th)
2009: Alabama? (think we led 15-10 or 15-13 going into the 4th, but may have trailed 10-9)
2008: Arkansas
2008: Alabama? (not sure if tied or trailing entering 4th)
2007: Arkansas? (pretty sure we were tied 21-21 entering 4th)
2007: Kentucky
2005: Tennessee

That's 4 for sure, and possibly 6 more, that we've lost when leading or tied going into the 4th quarter.

ETA: Forgot Ole Miss 2009. Pretty sure we led entering 4th quarter in that one, which would mean 5 at least, possibly 11
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 12:51 am
Posted by LSU Tigerhead
Metairie
Member since Nov 2007
5146 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 1:06 am to
quote:

LSU trailed in OT.
That could be it, but still never trailed in the 4th quarter, a key component of this stat. Depends on how they considered it I guess.

I looked at our losses to see how they compared, i.e. how many we lost after leading.

Losses since 2005 (Under Miles)
1st score is LSU-Opp at end of third quarter followed by the final score. If we lost the game at the end, time is included.

2005 (11-2)
#10 Tennessee @ #4 LSU, 24-7 => 24-24 (They tied at 2:02 remaining) => 24-27 OT.
#13 Georgia vs. #3 LSU, 7-24 => 14-34 (SEC Championship Game, Atlanta).

2006 (11-2)
@ #3 Auburn vs. #6 LSU, 3-7 => 3-7
@ #5 Florida vs. #9 LSU, Florida 7-23 => 10-23

2007 (12-2)
@ #17 Kentucky vs. #1 LSU, 27-21 => 27-27 (They tied at 4:21 remaining.) => 37-43 (3 OT).
UR Arkansas @ #1 LSU, 21-21 => 28-28 (We tied at 0:57 remaining.) => 48-50 (3 OT).

2008 (8-5)
@ #11 Florida vs. #4 LSU, 14-34 => 21-51
#9 Georgia @ #11 LSU, 17-38 => 38-52
#1 Alabama @ #15 LSU, 14-21 => 21-21 (We tied with 6:12 remaining.) => 21-27 OT
UR Ole Miss @ #18 LSU, 13-28 => 13-31
@ UR Arkansas vs. UR LSU, 30-20 => 30-31 (0:21)

2009 (9-4)
#1 Florida @ #4 LSU, 3-10 => 3-13
@ #3 Alabama vs. #9 LSU, 15-10 => 15-24
@ UR Ole Miss vs. #10 LSU, 17-15 => 23-25
#11 Penn State vs. #13 LSU, 10-16 => 19-17 (0:57) (Capitol One Bowl)

2010 (11-2)
@ #5 Auburn vs. #6 LSU, 10-17 => 17-24
@ #12 Arkansas vs. #6 LSU, 20-21 => 23-31

2011 (13-1)
#2 Alabama vs. #1 LSU, 0-15 => 0-21 (Nat'l championship game)

2012 (10-3)
@ #10 Florida vs. #4 LSU, 6-7 => 6-14
#1 Alabama @ #5 LSU, 10-14 => 17-21 (0:51)
#14 Clemson vs. #9 LSU, 24-13 => 24-25 (0:00) (Chick Fil-A Bowl)

2013 (10-3)
@ #9 Georgia vs. #6 LSU, 27-34 => 41-44
@ UR Ole Miss vs. #6 LSU, 14-24 => 24-27 (0:02)
@ #1 Alabama vs. #10 LSU, 17-24 => 17-38

2014 (7-2)
UR Miss. State @ #8 LSU, 10-31 => 29-34
@ #5 Auburn vs. #15 LSU, 7-34 => 7-41

26 losses under Les Miles, 2005-2014.
10 losses to top 5 opponents.
14 losses to top 10 opponents.

4 losses in OT (2 of those in triple OT).
5 losses were in last two minutes of the game.
5 losses when leading at the end of three quarters.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 2:45 am
Posted by DamnStrong1860
The Second City
Member since Oct 2012
3049 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:00 am to
quote:

20 of 25 you listed LSU was ranked higher than the opponent, suggesting we shouldn't have been trailing in the fourth quarter to begin with.


So in your mind, if LSU is ranked ahead of another ranked SEC opponent, there's no reason we should ever trail in the fourth quarter? That 20 of 25 you mentioned would include the 2011 Bama game. Are you actually saying we had no business ever trailing that team?
Posted by Mulat
Avalon Bch, FL
Member since Sep 2010
17517 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:02 am to


Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88187 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:07 am to
quote:

Too much data. Overload. Try again.




Not enough info actually. What he failed to do was break down every game and WHY we were in those situations of being down late to start with. Plenty of those games should have never been that close. Not all but some. It goes back to the performance arguments and the ugly wins and how possibly his coaching put us in those situations to begin with. Not all games but quite a few.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88187 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:09 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 8:10 am
Posted by LSU Tigerhead
Metairie
Member since Nov 2007
5146 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:27 am to
quote:

Not all but some. It goes back to the performance arguments and the ugly wins and how possibly his coaching put us in those situations to begin with. Not all games but quite a few.


How about you do a comparative analysis to other coaches and see how Les Miles stacks up?
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88187 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:10 am to
quote:

How about you do a comparative analysis to other coaches and see how Les Miles stacks up?



championships wise? based on years at all schools? with talent on hand? you don't wanna go there. Performance wise? you don't want that either. As a matter of fact we went through all the games last year he shoulda won. google the thread. I'm not going through it for the lazy like you again.

EDIT: I'm referring throughout his tenure....games he should have won. the thread was done last year.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 10:59 am
Posted by Hester Carries
Member since Sep 2012
25010 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:18 am to
This actually fuels the "he shouldnt have been down" argument. Of those 25 wins when trailing, 3 of the came when being ranked lower than the opposostion. Thats kind of the point. But, Im glad he wins them.
Posted by DamnStrong1860
The Second City
Member since Oct 2012
3049 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:37 am to
quote:

This actually fuels the "he shouldnt have been down" argument. Of those 25 wins when trailing, 3 of the came when being ranked lower than the opposostion. Thats kind of the point. But, Im glad he wins them.


I disagree. 5 times LSU was ranked lower than or equal to the opponent they beat. Four times they came back on a team who was ranked within 3 places of them; we're talking 1 vs 2, 13 vs. 14, 12 v. 14 etc. Twice, they had to come back on fellow top ten opponents who were ranked below them; we're talking 6 v 10 and 1 v 9. You really think we had no business being down to fellow top ten teams or teams ranked within 3 spots of us?
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:17 am to
quote:

So in your mind, if LSU is ranked ahead of another ranked SEC opponent, there's no reason we should ever trail in the fourth quarter? That 20 of 25 you mentioned would include the 2011 Bama game. Are you actually saying we had no business ever trailing that team?


Of course it's not an absolute that a team should NEVER trail in the fourth quarter to a lower-ranked opponent. The simple point is that a comeback requires you to trail in the first place, so having a lot of comebacks is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is you don't panic and give up when you're behind. The bad news is you're behind a lot.
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:25 am to
quote:

5 losses when leading at the end of three quarters.


Not a big deal, but I count six from your list:

2005 Tennessee
2007 Kentucky
2008 Arkansas
2009 Alabama
2009 Ole Miss
2012 Clemson
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:31 am to
quote:

championships wise? based on years at all schools? with talent on hand? you don't wanna go there
why not? miles is better than anyone other than saban in the only regard that matters - winning.

quote:

Performance wise? you don't want that either
performance? as in winning?

quote:

As a matter of fact we went through all the games last year he shoulda won
this will never end.

read here
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:33 am to
quote:

suggesting we shouldn't have been trailing in the fourth quarter to begin with
many of the teams on the list were ranked, even ranked highly. if you ask why was miles behind to begin with, why not ask the converse - why the opponent couldn't maintain their lead?
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88187 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:59 am to
post edited for clarity.

quote:
How about you do a comparative analysis to other coaches and see how Les Miles stacks up?



championships wise? based on years at all schools? with talent on hand? you don't wanna go there. Performance wise? you don't want that either. As a matter of fact we went through all the games last year he shoulda won. google the thread. I'm not going through it for the lazy like you again.

EDIT: I'm referring throughout his tenure....games he should have won. the thread was done last year.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:28 am to
quote:

post edited for clarity
still not clear how anyone could substantiate that lsu "should have" won more despite miles' blunders. again, to make this claim diminishes the difficulty of the conference.
Posted by dallastigers
Member since Dec 2003
9397 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:32 am to
Which of those 6 losses when leading after 3 quarters counts towards 23 losses?

Of 26 losses 19 were trailing after 3 quarters, 1 tied after 3 quarters (Ark 2007), and 6 were leading after 3 quarters.


Tenn and Clemson won on last play giving LSU no chance at comeback, so they should not count.

The tie in 2007 obviously counts towards the 23 as Ark took lead in 4th and then back and forth in OTs.

Out of the remaining 4 losses when leading after 3 quarters:

Bama and Ole Miss took lead fairly early in 4th quarter, so I am sure they count towards 23.

If Bama in 2005 counts as one of the 24 wins then Kentucky in 2007 should be in the 23 losses (since LSU trailed after Kentucky's first possession of OT just like Bama in 2005)

Ark in 2008 may be close as Ark took lead with under 30 seconds to play, but LSU had ball at Ark 46 with 21 seconds left (using LSU game stats as I don't remember exactly) and just trailed by one point. I think had LSU picked up some yards and made a tough FG (or made freakishly long one it did try) it would have counted as a win when trailing in 4th, so not picking up yards and then missing long field goal should still count towards the 23 losses.

If Kentucky 07 and Ark 08 both count that is 24 losses, so one must not be.

Was there possibly another win being included instead of Bama 2005 which would then make sense if Kentucky 2007 was not included in losses?
Posted by EvrybodysAllAmerican
Member since Apr 2013
12588 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:39 am to
quote:

UR Troy #19LSU





Just kidding. Pretty impressive list.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
88576 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:42 am to
quote:

Not enough info actually. What he failed to do was break down every game and WHY we were in those situations of being down late to start with. Plenty of those games should have never been that close. Not all but some. It goes back to the performance arguments and the ugly wins and how possibly his coaching put us in those situations to begin with. Not all games but quite a few.


All you can do is laugh at miserable "fans" that think this way.
Posted by ballscaster
Member since Jun 2013
26861 posts
Posted on 10/27/14 at 11:45 am to
quote:

I'm not going through it for the lazy like you again.
Please God, let this be true.

You must be beside yourself this morning.

ETA: I take that back. I hope you never stop. You were far and away the greatest Neg last year, but you disappeared after the A&M win, and I can't blame you since it must have been devastating for you.

I do have some bad news for you, though: you're no longer #1. One neg actually offered to fly me down to IAH and give me an opportunity to say to his face what I thought of him. You've been bested. I can't wait to see how you stack up to this challenge.

Geaux Tigers.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 11:50 am
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