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Message
2011 vs. 2019
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:18 pm
Throughout this year, I've found myself thinking back to the 2011 season. At the time, our 12-0 run was widely discussed as potentially the "best college football regular season of all time". This year felt pretty similar so I thought it would be interesting to look at the two seasons side by side (I'm clearly not accomplishing shite at work today..):
I'm just looking at the regular season since we don't really know how the postseason will shake out beyond the SECCG. I listed two AP rankings. The first is the ranking at the time the game was played. The second is either the final regular season rankings (for 2011) or the current regular season rankings (for 2019).
A few of things struck me here. The first thing that jumps out is that I forgot badly we were mauling teams in 2011. Even with our dysfunctional offense and quarterback controversy, we only had ONE game (Alabama) decided by less than 13 points. We won 9 games by 24+ points. That's without counting the absolute pounding we gave UGA in the SEC Championship.
The second thing that jumps out at me is.. man, that was a legit schedule. I thought this year's schedule compared, but it really doesn't. If Texas had turned out to be as good as we thought they were, then maybe it would be close.
When you look at the final rankings from 2011 - after the BCS championship game - our schedule looks even more legit. During that season, we beat the teams that finished #1, #4, #5, #17, and #19 in the final AP rankings. That said, winning out this year would mean we tacked on a few more top 5 wins between the SECCG and CFP.
The third thing that struck me is that during the 2011 season, I always felt like we were scraping by to win tough-fought games. But the scores don't reflect that. This year it's the exact opposite - I feel like we have pretty much dominated in every game we've played, but the scores show that games have been much closer than they were in 2011.
The last thing I wanted to look at were some of the offensive/defensive stats from the two seasons:
As pretty much everyone would expect, the 2011 defense was elite, while the 2019 offense has been elite. The thing that surprised me the most is that our scoring efficiency in points per play was so high in 2011. My suspicion is that this is mostly due to defensive and special teams scores. I didn't go through each game to manually split out offensive points, and I know we had multiple defensive touchdowns in 2011.
Regardless, I thought this was worth sharing for anyone else trying to figure out where this season stands in the history of LSU football - overall, it's been almost equal to our best regular season ever, and if we win out we will certainly be in the conversation of best overall seasons ever.
I'm just looking at the regular season since we don't really know how the postseason will shake out beyond the SECCG. I listed two AP rankings. The first is the ranking at the time the game was played. The second is either the final regular season rankings (for 2011) or the current regular season rankings (for 2019).
A few of things struck me here. The first thing that jumps out is that I forgot badly we were mauling teams in 2011. Even with our dysfunctional offense and quarterback controversy, we only had ONE game (Alabama) decided by less than 13 points. We won 9 games by 24+ points. That's without counting the absolute pounding we gave UGA in the SEC Championship.
The second thing that jumps out at me is.. man, that was a legit schedule. I thought this year's schedule compared, but it really doesn't. If Texas had turned out to be as good as we thought they were, then maybe it would be close.
When you look at the final rankings from 2011 - after the BCS championship game - our schedule looks even more legit. During that season, we beat the teams that finished #1, #4, #5, #17, and #19 in the final AP rankings. That said, winning out this year would mean we tacked on a few more top 5 wins between the SECCG and CFP.
The third thing that struck me is that during the 2011 season, I always felt like we were scraping by to win tough-fought games. But the scores don't reflect that. This year it's the exact opposite - I feel like we have pretty much dominated in every game we've played, but the scores show that games have been much closer than they were in 2011.
The last thing I wanted to look at were some of the offensive/defensive stats from the two seasons:
As pretty much everyone would expect, the 2011 defense was elite, while the 2019 offense has been elite. The thing that surprised me the most is that our scoring efficiency in points per play was so high in 2011. My suspicion is that this is mostly due to defensive and special teams scores. I didn't go through each game to manually split out offensive points, and I know we had multiple defensive touchdowns in 2011.
Regardless, I thought this was worth sharing for anyone else trying to figure out where this season stands in the history of LSU football - overall, it's been almost equal to our best regular season ever, and if we win out we will certainly be in the conversation of best overall seasons ever.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:21 pm to lostinbr
quote:
The thing that surprised me the most is that our scoring efficiency in points per play was so high in 2011.
Lots of points in 2011 were scored on defense, special teams, and short fields. Not so much this year. Lots of 75+ yard fields scoring TDs.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:25 pm to lostinbr
Good work( ) and analysis.
Like me you ARE accomplishing shite at work today, just not stuff that makes the company any money.
Like me you ARE accomplishing shite at work today, just not stuff that makes the company any money.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:26 pm to lostinbr
Which is why it was and is so shortsighted and downright stupid for most fans to downgrade that season over one game. One of, if not THE greatest season of all time. Should be enjoyed.
Same for this year. Win or lose an SEC championship. win or lose a national championship it will go down as one of, if not THE greatest of all time.
We should all pinch ourselves we got to experience 03, 07, 11, 19.
Same for this year. Win or lose an SEC championship. win or lose a national championship it will go down as one of, if not THE greatest of all time.
We should all pinch ourselves we got to experience 03, 07, 11, 19.
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:27 pm to rpg37
From a quick glance, looks like we had 9 defensive/special teams TD's.
3 Fumble Recoveries
3 Pick 6's
2 Punt Returns
1 Kickoff Return
Compared to 2 punt return TD's in 2019
3 Fumble Recoveries
3 Pick 6's
2 Punt Returns
1 Kickoff Return
Compared to 2 punt return TD's in 2019
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:28 pm to rpg37
quote:
Lots of points in 2011 were scored on defense, special teams, and short fields.
I think the short fields are a huge part of it. We had more INTs in 2011, but it also seems like more of them happened in opponent territory where we had to go 20-30 yards to score. Also thinking of TM7’s huge FR against Oregon..
This year it feels like our turnovers have prevented scores but haven’t given us a short field very often.. not that we need it.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:32 pm to John cocktoasten
quote:
Which is why it was and is so shortsighted and downright stupid for most fans to downgrade that season over one game. One of, if not THE greatest season of all time. Should be enjoyed.
I agree. Up until the 1/9 fiasco, those guys were absolute world beaters.
It’s crazy in hindsight how much the Lee/JJ controversy really poisoned the well for a lot our fans, myself included.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:34 pm to John cocktoasten
quote:
One of, if not THE greatest season of all time. Should be enjoyed.
Same for this year. Win or lose an SEC championship. win or lose a national championship it will go down as one of, if not THE greatest of all time.
Agreed.
While it would obviously be disappointing if this season ended with anything other than the NC trophy coming to BR, this season has been incredible and will always be one of the best in school history.
Of course if it closes out like we hope it will be THE best bar none.
Even a loss in the SECCG or CFP would probably still put it at the top considering we’re going to have a damn Heisman QB to live on forever.
Just an incredible season
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:37 pm to lostinbr
quote:
third thing that struck me is that during the 2011 season, I always felt like we were scraping by to win tough-fought games. But the scores don't reflect that. This year it's the exact opposite - I feel like we have pretty much dominated in every game we've played, but the scores show that games have been much closer than they were in 2011.
I feel the same way
Feels like we have pounded teams this year and yet you look at the score and be like “hm ok”. Case in point the Arkansas game this year compared to 2011. I felt like we were literally playing a high school team but the core isn’t that outlandish.
Everyone wants to blame the defense for giving up garbage points. I mean other than that last TD we allowed Bama and our failure to scheme for Plummer appropriately I am not calling for Arandas head. I honestly think this is just how football is now. If you want to win you have to put up a lot of points. Some teams have figured out unstoppable offenses and if you don’t have that system implemented you aren’t sniffing the CFP. Look at LSU 2012-2016. And having an offense like that I honestly believe changes how defensive players on that team react to their job they have to do. In some way. I can’t say it’s acceptable but I think the game is just changing.
Also —- one take away.... I forgot Oregon was #3 when we played them. What were we ranked??? And ARKANSAS was ranked #3 when we played them???? That can’t be right. What.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:38 pm to lostinbr
quote:
The third thing that struck me is that during the 2011 season, I always felt like we were scraping by to win tough-fought games. But the scores don't reflect that.
That's because of the recency bias from the NC game vs. Bama and the fact that LSU's offense was so much explosive as it was methodical. Several games were close at HT or even into the 3rd quarter before LSU just wore down their opponent and pulled away for a big win.
The downward trend started in the Bama game and continued to the NC game...it was just masked by some big special teams plays.
LSU couldn't move the ball with any consistency vs. Bama. A week later with JJ fully taking the reins at QB, it was 14-7 at the half vs. WKU. After destroying a OM team who was about the equivalent of Ark this year, LSU got off to another sluggish start vs. Arkansas in the finale (going down 14-0) before a TD and Mathieu's return sparked the scoring. A week later they couldn't generate a single 1st down vs. UGA. If not for a few mistakes by UGA, great plays by the defense and the Mathieu return, LSU would have been down big at the half.
This year the offense has been almost unstoppable. But, because of the defensive issues LSU has had to sweat out 3 onsides kicks to preserve what seemingly should have been easy victories.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:38 pm to lostinbr
quote:
It’s crazy in hindsight how much the Lee/JJ controversy really poisoned the well for a lot our fans, myself included.
+1
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:40 pm to lostinbr
Excellent work. Please update this once this season is over and we can compare.
I'd also like to look at how high each opponent got ranked throughout the season.
At one point, Ms. St. and TAM were ranked, I think Utah State may have crept into 25th or 24th at some point too.
I'd also like to look at how high each opponent got ranked throughout the season.
At one point, Ms. St. and TAM were ranked, I think Utah State may have crept into 25th or 24th at some point too.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:42 pm to Delacroix22
quote:
Also —- one take away.... I forgot Oregon was #3 when we played them. What were we ranked??? And ARKANSAS was ranked #3 when we played them???? That can’t be right. What.
We were preseason #4 when we played Oregon.
Arky finished that season 11-2, ranked #5 in the final AP poll. And their roster wasn't exactly stacked with NFL talent either. Petrino did a hell of a job with that team and then got fired the next summer.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:49 pm to lostinbr
In 2011 we were still running all over people and we had like 5-6 Defense/STs TDS
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:49 pm to Alt26
quote:
The downward trend started in the Bama game and continued to the NC game...it was just masked by some big special teams plays.
Arkansas was the best and most complete game we played against elite competition all season.
So what if a Mathieu return “sparked” the team? That return tied the game at 14 and we went on to a 41-17 win with 500 yards of offense on the #3 team in the country with the West, SEC, and BCS on the line.
It is one of the top 5 wins in LSU history imo, closing out the first undefeated regular season in school history since 58.
This post was edited on 11/26/19 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 11/26/19 at 1:55 pm to lostinbr
Great post.
I have one question - did you take all the adderall?
I have one question - did you take all the adderall?
Posted on 11/26/19 at 2:12 pm to lostinbr
Saints and 49ers were also balling out in 2011 and we know what happened. This year the football gods make it all right.
Posted on 11/26/19 at 2:13 pm to Alt26
quote:Actually, the stretch of games between 11-5 to SECG was highest offensive output of the season, then LSU played the #5 and #1 CFB ranked defenses, which is the part tRant remembers best.
The downward trend started in the Bama game and continued to the NC game...it was just masked by some big special teams plays.
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