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Started By
Message
re: OT Zalance Heard...Anyone have the scoop on this kid?
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:25 am to JackHuntQB
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:25 am to JackHuntQB
quote:
ESPN top 300
Didn't even know this still existed.
0
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:40 am to JackHuntQB
As things stand right now if Zalance commits soon LSU will moved into the number two spot on 247. We currently have an average of 92.14. Zalance would bump us up to 92.39.
However it would be difficult to hold on to that two spot because Ohio State and UGA currently have higher point averages than 92.39 unless the next commits for Ohio State and UGA are low four star or three star players which would bring down their averages.
The way CBK is recruiting LSU has a legit shot at finishing 2. I did not think that was possible prior to today. I thought a 6ish finish was likely. Now I'm leaning 2 possible, 3 or 4 likely.
However it would be difficult to hold on to that two spot because Ohio State and UGA currently have higher point averages than 92.39 unless the next commits for Ohio State and UGA are low four star or three star players which would bring down their averages.
The way CBK is recruiting LSU has a legit shot at finishing 2. I did not think that was possible prior to today. I thought a 6ish finish was likely. Now I'm leaning 2 possible, 3 or 4 likely.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:49 am to JackHuntQB
quote:
Anyone have the scoop on this kid?
I would say he's going to look good in purple and gold
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:52 am to GumboPot
quote:
As things stand right now if Zalance commits soon LSU will moved into the number two spot on 247.
We would move from 6 to 5. Adding Heard puts LSU at 284.07, OSU would be at 284.22 and Notre Dame at 284.62, Texas 286 and Bama at 295
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:56 am to luismlg
quote:
We would move from 6 to 5. Adding Heard puts LSU at 284.07, OSU would be at 284.22 and Notre Dame at 284.62, Texas 286 and Bama at 295
Okay, you are right. But what I don't understand is the math.
Texas is currently number two with an average player rating of 92.20 with 22 commits.
LSU is currently number 6 with an average player rating of 92.14 and 21 commits.
Zlance currently has a player rating of 0.9756. If you add Zlance to the LSU commitment list then the average is bumped up to 92.39 with 22 commits. That's better than Texas who is currently number 2.
Here's the math: 92.14(21/22) + 97.56(1/22) = 92.39 (which is currently greater than Texas average rating with 22 commits).
Obviously the math is not linear like I'm assuming because if it were we would be bumped up to number 2 when Zlance commits.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 12:22 pm to JackHuntQB
247 has him 100% predicted to LSU including Wilfong.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 1:51 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Texas is currently number two with an average player rating of 92.20 with 22 commits.
Texas has 2 or 3 five stars, my guess is those carry more weight
Posted on 8/18/22 at 2:26 pm to JackHuntQB
HE WILL BE A LSU TIGER !!!! That’s as plain and as simple as I can make it.
This post was edited on 8/18/22 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 8/19/22 at 12:29 pm to JackHuntQB
Posted on 8/20/22 at 1:10 pm to MrJimBeam
Go back to sleep
Posted on 8/20/22 at 1:15 pm to luismlg
quote:
Texas has 2 or 3 five stars, my guess is those carry more weight
That’s exactly right. Go look at the class calculator for Texas and LSU. Plain and clear how 247’s algo works.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 1:57 pm to GeauxVU
Watched him last night at scrimmage.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 2:05 pm to JackHuntQB
Zalence Heard - Note the check mark in the Offer Column
The 247 website link above shows he was offered by LSU on March 30, 2022.
The 247 website link above shows he was offered by LSU on March 30, 2022.
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 8/20/22 at 2:10 pm to GumboPot
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 8/20/22 at 4:55 pm to GumboPot
quote:
But what I don't understand is the math.
They give every player some value, and the amount of that player's value that's given to your class depends on their rank within your class fit to a gaussian distribution with some parameters I can't remember off the top of my head. The end result is that the top end of your class matters the most and the bottom third barely affects anything. Just use their calculator if you want to know how things would change. It's not really possible to reverse engineer it because the player rating isn't readily available outside of their calculator.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 5:37 pm to TigerDawg1212
This is good insight to the mechanics of the calc, but I can’t help but think of “Trouble with the Curve” - quants and their algorithm vs. what people see with their eyes.
Posted on 8/22/22 at 9:19 am to JackHuntQB
Switch to On3 they do a great job
Posted on 8/22/22 at 1:49 pm to LsuTool
Agreed, Heard will probably go even a little higher in 1st round the next year, this kid may not start as freshman, but watch out when his body is finished developing with his long arse arms and quickest feet for his size...Lord, we gonna have some serious competion on our o/line for next ten years if BK fulfills his contract. But after 3_4 National Titles he may only stay 9 years...
Geaux Tigahs
Geaux Tigahs
Posted on 8/22/22 at 5:48 pm to JackHuntQB
quote:
Anyone have the scoop on this kid? ESPN top 300 doesn’t have a LSU offer listed. Rivals predicts 100% LSU.
What year is it? Lol rivals and ESPN
Posted on 8/22/22 at 6:27 pm to GeauxVU
quote:
This is good insight to the mechanics of the calc, but I can’t help but think of “Trouble with the Curve” - quants and their algorithm vs. what people see with their eyes.
We can quibble about the exact details of the implementation, but it makes a lot of sense and empirically does pretty well. The top of the class matters the most because they're your starters. The middle of the class matters but not as much as your starters because they're your depth. The bottom of the class can have a few gems, but you're not really expecting them to play so it doesn't make much sense to count them towards your class.
The only big failure that immediately comes to mind is that they severely underestimate Iowa for whatever reason. Iowa recruits much, much better than their rank implies. They're second in the Big 10 for players in the NFL last I checked, and their rankings are...not that.
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