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More important metric - Star rating or offer list?
Posted on 12/2/17 at 10:50 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 10:50 am
The value of the star ratings for a recruit is a circular debate on most recruiting boards. It’s not that complicated. Just like they have busts in the NFL first round, there will be star busts. Even so, on average a first round nfl player is more likely to be elite than a 7th round pick. The fact Marcus Colston was a great player picked in the 7th round and Jamarcus Russell a bust at number one doesn’t change the fact most first rounders will out perform later picks.
The same is true with star ratings. The fact Jacob Hester was a 2 or 3 star player who outplayed some 5 star players doesn’t mean Lanard Fournette and Leonard Fournette had the same chance of being good in college.
Star ratings are often done by football nerds who do recruiting sites, so in some sense they are not reliable. But the star ratings are also based on metrics, like size and speed, performance and how hard colleges pursue kids.
My assumption is that college scouts know more about talent than recruiting gurus, some so called gurus who do the evaluations never played high school ball.
In most cases, the offer list and star rating align. In some cases where you have kids that for economic or other reasons do not go to the sponsored camps for recruits, you will see kids flying under the radar of the recruiting sites.
That’s why for me when LSU picks up a recruit, I go straight to their offer list. Tae Provens and Damien Lewis are good examples of three star players with four star offer lists.
Neither star rating or offer list is a guarantee how a player will perform. But stars and offers do matter, we know that on average teams that have been recruiting 4 and 5 star players outperform teams that don’t.
That doesnt change the fact that some teams will evaluate talent better than others and find more gems in the rough. That’s why I think the offer list is maybe a more important metric, good scouts will find the under the radar kids.
The same is true with star ratings. The fact Jacob Hester was a 2 or 3 star player who outplayed some 5 star players doesn’t mean Lanard Fournette and Leonard Fournette had the same chance of being good in college.
Star ratings are often done by football nerds who do recruiting sites, so in some sense they are not reliable. But the star ratings are also based on metrics, like size and speed, performance and how hard colleges pursue kids.
My assumption is that college scouts know more about talent than recruiting gurus, some so called gurus who do the evaluations never played high school ball.
In most cases, the offer list and star rating align. In some cases where you have kids that for economic or other reasons do not go to the sponsored camps for recruits, you will see kids flying under the radar of the recruiting sites.
That’s why for me when LSU picks up a recruit, I go straight to their offer list. Tae Provens and Damien Lewis are good examples of three star players with four star offer lists.
Neither star rating or offer list is a guarantee how a player will perform. But stars and offers do matter, we know that on average teams that have been recruiting 4 and 5 star players outperform teams that don’t.
That doesnt change the fact that some teams will evaluate talent better than others and find more gems in the rough. That’s why I think the offer list is maybe a more important metric, good scouts will find the under the radar kids.
14
Posted on 12/2/17 at 11:04 am to paper tiger
The recruiting services simply do not have the resources to scout all players in a given year. Teams will also place higher value on a certain skill set versus a star rating. I enjoy follow recruiting, but it’s all about the fans. The coaches will recruit their needs, not based on the top 247.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 11:10 am to DCtiger1
Cameron Wire is an example of another kid whose star rating and offer list are not in accord.
Rivals has him a three star player, but he has offers galore from multiple quality teams.
He has already moved up with some services. I would think rivals would move him up soon.
It’s no matter to me, this is a good example of where I think his offer list tells us the true college scouts have him rated higher than recruiting gurus, and I would choiose his offer list as the more important metric.
Rivals has him a three star player, but he has offers galore from multiple quality teams.
He has already moved up with some services. I would think rivals would move him up soon.
It’s no matter to me, this is a good example of where I think his offer list tells us the true college scouts have him rated higher than recruiting gurus, and I would choiose his offer list as the more important metric.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 11:56 am to paper tiger
quote:I like to call them Starbursts.
star busts
Posted on 12/2/17 at 11:59 am to paper tiger
Whose opinion do you value more:
A professional or a journalist.
If you need an attorney do (a) call your local newspaper and ask your legal question or (b) meet with an attorney to discuss your legal issue?
The guys who are hired by ESPN (Luginbill), Rivals (Farrell) and 247 (Simmons) are not coaches and never will be coaches, they are journalist.
I value the professional over the amateur any day of the week.
A professional or a journalist.
If you need an attorney do (a) call your local newspaper and ask your legal question or (b) meet with an attorney to discuss your legal issue?
The guys who are hired by ESPN (Luginbill), Rivals (Farrell) and 247 (Simmons) are not coaches and never will be coaches, they are journalist.
I value the professional over the amateur any day of the week.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 12:02 pm to paper tiger
Look at offer lists...
I don’t care how many stars a kid has if he has legit offers from Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, etc...
The problem is discerning who has a committable offer.
A lot of kids say they have standing offers that aren’t really there come signing day.
Look at Jacob Hester. A two star with offers from everyone in the country.
The other problem with offer lists is that some schools don’t bother pursuing a kid that is firmly committed early in the process.
I remember Glenn Dorsey only had a handful of offers on his offer list because he was solid to LSU and let other coaches know about it. And he was a top 50 player, 4 star type of guy
I don’t care how many stars a kid has if he has legit offers from Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, etc...
The problem is discerning who has a committable offer.
A lot of kids say they have standing offers that aren’t really there come signing day.
Look at Jacob Hester. A two star with offers from everyone in the country.
The other problem with offer lists is that some schools don’t bother pursuing a kid that is firmly committed early in the process.
I remember Glenn Dorsey only had a handful of offers on his offer list because he was solid to LSU and let other coaches know about it. And he was a top 50 player, 4 star type of guy
Posted on 12/2/17 at 12:03 pm to paper tiger
Offer sheet. Take the everyday and twice on Sunday’s. Those peoples jobs depend on their evaluation. Recruiting services depend on subscribers, and I believe most are Bama fans etc.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 12:06 pm to paper tiger
Offer sheet assuming they're legit. Sometimes you see recruits with ridiculous offer lists that are far from true. A legit offer list from many big schools is all you need to know on the caliber of the recruit. The big universities have far more resources than a place like 247 and when they're all agreeing 1 recruit deserves an offer to commit then you know you have a good recruit.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 12:06 pm to paper tiger
IMO, the two combine for a "clearer picture". One can cast doubts on the other, as in the above cited case of Wire. Neither can give an accurate picture stand-alone (because the first reply is correct- it's a lack of time/resources thing).
In the case of star ratings outpacing offers, it too is a flag that has to be put in the context of has the kid camped, late bloomer, etc. If there are a bunch of visits, camps, etc and a lack of offers I assume the ratings are invalid.
In the case of offers outpacing stars, you have multiple coaches evaluating and offering based on what they've seen. That counts for something. However, there are many cases of so-and-so offered so we should. There is the bias in that. Happens between teams in every conference. It's a valid recruiting strategy for those who aren't filling their ranks with top-300 talent at every position.
The wildcard is the employees of these sites. A kid that makes himself available for interviews or stays in contact with the reporters will likely have a higher rating just from sheer exposure. I see no way to account for this, it can go either way. At this point you are relying on those reporters to give their objective evaluation. On one hand if a kid sucks, the "exposure" will show through. But none of these kids outright suck, so that will never happen.
My personal preference is:
1. offers
2. watch "exposure"
3a. If kid camps, Sr season passes by, multiple visits AND stars stay flat- there's an issue with offers.
3b. If kid camps, Sr season passes by, multiple visits, etc. AND stars/ranking improves, offer list is confirmed.
3c. Little or no exposure (camps, etc.) and stars/ranking stays flat- I go with offer list.
So my default is offers, to be confirmed by exposure and resulting ranking. With lack of confirmation, I assume offer list (coaches evals) are valid.
In the case of star ratings outpacing offers, it too is a flag that has to be put in the context of has the kid camped, late bloomer, etc. If there are a bunch of visits, camps, etc and a lack of offers I assume the ratings are invalid.
In the case of offers outpacing stars, you have multiple coaches evaluating and offering based on what they've seen. That counts for something. However, there are many cases of so-and-so offered so we should. There is the bias in that. Happens between teams in every conference. It's a valid recruiting strategy for those who aren't filling their ranks with top-300 talent at every position.
The wildcard is the employees of these sites. A kid that makes himself available for interviews or stays in contact with the reporters will likely have a higher rating just from sheer exposure. I see no way to account for this, it can go either way. At this point you are relying on those reporters to give their objective evaluation. On one hand if a kid sucks, the "exposure" will show through. But none of these kids outright suck, so that will never happen.
My personal preference is:
1. offers
2. watch "exposure"
3a. If kid camps, Sr season passes by, multiple visits AND stars stay flat- there's an issue with offers.
3b. If kid camps, Sr season passes by, multiple visits, etc. AND stars/ranking improves, offer list is confirmed.
3c. Little or no exposure (camps, etc.) and stars/ranking stays flat- I go with offer list.
So my default is offers, to be confirmed by exposure and resulting ranking. With lack of confirmation, I assume offer list (coaches evals) are valid.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 12:26 pm to I20goon
It is important to note that star ratings and offer lists are not mutually exclusive. I do think the ratin services take into account the number and quality of offers a recruit gets.
What you see sometimes is a lag though, where the recruiting services are slow to react to the fact a player is suddenly getting more offers.
Some people oomplian that recruits get upgraded just because of offers from schools like Bama. To a certain extent, I would tend to rate a recruit higher if offered by a Bama or Ohio State.
Recruiting sites are driven by profit and there always is that bias toward their audience. Even so, for the most part offer lists and star ratings are in accord such that star ratings, however flawed, are still relevant and give some idea of the strength of a recruiting class.
What you see sometimes is a lag though, where the recruiting services are slow to react to the fact a player is suddenly getting more offers.
Some people oomplian that recruits get upgraded just because of offers from schools like Bama. To a certain extent, I would tend to rate a recruit higher if offered by a Bama or Ohio State.
Recruiting sites are driven by profit and there always is that bias toward their audience. Even so, for the most part offer lists and star ratings are in accord such that star ratings, however flawed, are still relevant and give some idea of the strength of a recruiting class.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 2:32 pm to paper tiger
Offer sheets easy.
Most importantly its the eyes of our coaches. Comes down to do I trust the staffs evals and overall I do.
As for recruitniks, watch any film of the kids you can get eyes on and eval them yourself to form your own opinion. This stuff is just a hobby and fun to us(supposed to be) so eval kids yourself, while also factoring in opinions of some you trust with evals, and decide for yourself how you feel about the kids in our class.
Most importantly its the eyes of our coaches. Comes down to do I trust the staffs evals and overall I do.
As for recruitniks, watch any film of the kids you can get eyes on and eval them yourself to form your own opinion. This stuff is just a hobby and fun to us(supposed to be) so eval kids yourself, while also factoring in opinions of some you trust with evals, and decide for yourself how you feel about the kids in our class.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 2:41 pm to paper tiger
They both have an incestuous, self-fulfilling relationship.
Offers are a major factor in rankings.
Offers are a major factor in rankings.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 6:27 pm to paper tiger
I think Provens is a future star here at LSU. He has Elite quickness, vision, and cutting ability which plays perfectly in Canada's system. It's what LSU is missing is these smart football players, guys who are tough and just know the game of football. He looks smooth out there, like he doesn't need to try hard.
There's some others that if they don't sign early probably won't be in this class. That TE and DE from GA. Idk if I wouldn't let a few players in this class go if they don't sign early. Especially if we have some good alternatives.
There's some others that if they don't sign early probably won't be in this class. That TE and DE from GA. Idk if I wouldn't let a few players in this class go if they don't sign early. Especially if we have some good alternatives.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 7:05 pm to paper tiger
quote:
More important metric - Star rating or offer list?
Camp performance against elite competition and measurables.
This post was edited on 12/2/17 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 12/3/17 at 1:18 am to Tigers4life
I agree that camps give the coaches the best chance of evaluation, hence the higher star rating from the media. Joe below goes to FXU camp, shows out, he gets talked about, rating goes up.
Then the kids that don't camp are left to send in game highlights and word of mouth, therefore no mention to the media, unless, several eyes are opened by the highlights.
In the end, generally the cream rises to the top.
Then the kids that don't camp are left to send in game highlights and word of mouth, therefore no mention to the media, unless, several eyes are opened by the highlights.
In the end, generally the cream rises to the top.
Posted on 12/3/17 at 10:58 am to paper tiger
All the rankings are for fans. Regrettably there are tons of kids good enough to be 3 or 4 star that never get noticed.
A 16 year old kid at a crappy football school with the History teacher coaching is not going to be developed like the kid at West Monroe. That is just how the cookie crumbles.
But of the players ranked, I think the high rankings are fairly accurate and the percentages that continue to excel are much greater.
When you are looking at a 3 star that starts getting a bunch of offers from big time programs, you can bet your arse they are going to be a good player.
A 16 year old kid at a crappy football school with the History teacher coaching is not going to be developed like the kid at West Monroe. That is just how the cookie crumbles.
But of the players ranked, I think the high rankings are fairly accurate and the percentages that continue to excel are much greater.
When you are looking at a 3 star that starts getting a bunch of offers from big time programs, you can bet your arse they are going to be a good player.
Posted on 12/3/17 at 11:00 am to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:And unfortunately rankings influence offers for some programs.
Offers are a major factor in rankings.
Look at Tenn, keeping the fanbase happy has become almost impossible. Damn if you plant your flag on a 3 star QB if you any other options.
Posted on 12/3/17 at 12:12 pm to paper tiger
Offer list by far.
Posted on 12/3/17 at 12:59 pm to paper tiger
Offer list - are we competing for recruits against AL, GA and AU or La Tech and TU
Posted on 12/3/17 at 1:11 pm to PUB
In order of importance!
My opinion, offer list, stars!
My opinion, offer list, stars!
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