re: Isaac Downgraded to Tropical Depression

Tornado warning in SLidell

quote:

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It has begun..

2 Men Arrested in Slidell for Looting

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is that looting or is it just theft? what the hell is the difference?

Daily Weather Newsletter
August 28, 2012

Good Morning,

I woke up this morning and what do I see...this poor tropical storm trying to live up to the massive hype from the media. Poor Isaac is going to be a disappointment to lots of people unless it can get organized, pop the winds to Category 2 strength, bring over 20 inches of rain and justify the outrageous build-up for this storm...and do this within 18 hours. Not going to happen!


NWS Surface Analysis

Yesterday was a pretty nice day for the Southeast, except for the Florida peninsula. It's going to be a great weather day for the entire Southeast, with the exception of the Gulf Coast.

It's going to be hot in Texas and the 100 degree temperatures will extend all the way to Montana. The skies will be partly cloudy for most of the Southeast due to the large cloud shield from TS Isaac and the stationary front that runs from New York, down through the Southeast and into Texas. This front will be the avenue of escape for Isaac after landfall.

The forecasts for the entire Southeast, Midwest and East Coast for the next few days were predicated on the "conclusion" that Isaac would grow up and become a large, slow storm that would affect these areas over the next several days.

Isaac will still be a force to reckon with, but how this storm reacts after it makes landfall will not be as much of a disaster as originally thought.


NHC Advisory 08-28-2012 4:00AM CDT

The track of Isaac hasn't changed overnight, but after looking at satellite data and reading the NHC discussion, Isaac has been a general disappointment. The storm still has a lot of dry air surrounding it; thereby keeping a lid on any strengthening. This was mentioned for 2 days in previous newsletters and has been a problem for Isaac since its' beginning while moving through the Florida Straits.

A quick look at the latest satellite image, using Google Maps shows the entire situation for Isaac.

TS Isaac 08-28-2012 5:00AM CDT

It appears the northern portion of the storm's diameter has disappeared. Yes, there are faint feeder bands across Mississippi and Louisiana, but these feeder bands are bringing in dry air to the center of Isaac.

Dry air moving into Isaac has been a problem from the beginning and the feeder bands over the land have been keeping Isaac from becoming bigger than expected.

I have a map that I analyzed on the next page. The Green line represents air that is considered "moist" by meteorological standards. As you can see, all the moist air is over the eastern coast of Florida. This is from the massive feeder band that moved up the Florida coast yesterday, setting off severe weather.

The Brown line depicts "dry" air, as defined by meteorological standards. The entire flow around Isaac, coming from a northerly direction is pumping in dry air, resulting in Isaac gasping for some moisture.


Wind pattern at 18,000 feet and moisture levels

All the models kept trying to get a firm hold on what Isaac would do, but none of the models seemed to recognize the dry air being pumped into Isaac. It doesn't surprise me that the models were way off on this storm.

First, it was impossible to get a fix on the storm's center and we saw model results that stretched from Miami to Galveston. Secondly, the models are only mathematical equations that focus on the movement of the atmosphere on a large scale. Sure, there are some models that are specific to tropical situations and centered on specific parts of the country, but these models are only as good as the "reasoning" that went into their development.

Though the models are continually "tweaked" for better results, it seems the folks developing these algorithms aren't aware that we are now working on "new normal" standards...not the "old normal".

For several days, we saw large areas of dry air going into Isaac, yet none of the models picked up on this. The models kept trying to develop Isaac into a Category 3 hurricane, but overlooked the effects of land interaction with the feeder bands.

I listed my expectations of maximum sustained winds between 90 to 95 miles per hour. I also stated these were the "maximum" winds, but for the majority of time, wind speeds would be lower.

Now, my expectations have decreased quite a bit. The New Orleans area, and 25 miles on either side of the storm center, will see a maximum of 70 miles per hour and gusts near 90 miles per hour. Remember, this is the "maximum", not what will occur the majority of time.

The map below depicts the areas of probable hurricane force winds through Saturday. You can see the area of expected hurricane force winds is very small.



There will be lots of rain at, near and within 80 miles of the storm, once it makes landfall. I do not see 20 inches of rain, but there will definitely be enough rain to cause flooding and other problems.

Places like the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi will have cloudy skies, gusty winds and a chance of rain as the sun comes up, heats the ground and initiates thunderstorms.


Forecast track of Isaac

Some thunderstorms may be severe because though there isn't a lot of moisture in the upper atmosphere, the heating from the sun and the instability associated with the feeder bands could easily set off severe weather, including isolated tornadoes..so be careful.

Once Isaac moves inland, it will latch on to the tail end of the stationary front through the Southeast, bringing rain from New Orleans through Arkansas, and the Midwest.

Yes, there will be a lot of rain, but as I said last night...there won't be 20 inches of rain.
Think of it this way...there are people all along the Gulf Coast that have lots of additional supplies such as water, milk, meats, bread, batteries, snacks, etc. that won't have a need to go to the grocery store for awhile.

I'm seeing some really stupid remarks on Facebook about how the NHC handled this storm. All I say to them is...try doing the job of the NHC. When anyone has the responsibility of protecting the lives of millions and associated property, should they err on the side of caution or just dismiss everything as small potatoes?
Though Isaac is a small storm and won't be the "monster" as once thought, there were still tornadoes in Florida, severe weather and flooding from West Palm Beach to Tampa and all types of small scale damages...and we still do not know what damages will result as Isaac makes landfall. Again, it's so easy to criticize without knowing the full story. Stupidity such as this, angers me all the time.

Looking ahead to the weekend...I'm thinking mostly cloudy skies for the Southeast and rain from the Gulf coast, northward to Missouri due to the remains of Isaac. We will see the return of southerly winds for the Southeast and that means hot and muggy for the weekend.

For Labor Day weekend, the weather will be generally good for the Southeast. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's (except in Texas, where it will still be over 100 degrees) and the occasional thunderstorm...typical summer time weather for our region.

I'm still concerned about the tropics...the atmosphere is still active and we have to keep an eye on what is trying to sneak up on us.

I won't issue a supplemental newsletter until this evening. Remember, please go to:

dailyweathernewsletter.blogspot.com

Rocco

He always does

I know. You are supposed to say

Baaaatooon Roouge is Fuuuuccckkkeeeeeddd.

Let's get serious here.

If this thing doesn't kick off a bunch of mini-swirls (tornados associated with hurricanes) BR will be fine.

I know right!?!

Bunch of pussies in this thread.

Back in my day, I once ran a weadeater naked during a CAT 7 hurricane in 190mph winds on the coast of Louisiana straight uphill the whole way.

'Murica is soft today.

:PoundsChest:

Water over causeway in Mobile. Take the bayway.

quote:

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quote: 2 Men Arrested in Slidell for Looting

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Just thinking, is it better to wear long pants or shorts when you loot?