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New Orleans Restaurants Surviving This Mess?
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:33 pm
Was having a healthy debate with tgrbaitn08 on the OT and thought it would be a good topic for here.
I'm thinking we are in for a world of hurt. The restaurant industry seemed like it was kind of at a busting point before this started due to so many openings and crazy high rents/leases.
Now they have lost their most profitable season of the year and we are about to head into the dreaded summer. No festivals/concerts, etc this fall and probably not much convention and business travel either.
Let's use the number of restaurants open pre-covid as 1,000. How many do you think will be out of business by September?
I'm thinking 75 or so.
I'm thinking we are in for a world of hurt. The restaurant industry seemed like it was kind of at a busting point before this started due to so many openings and crazy high rents/leases.
Now they have lost their most profitable season of the year and we are about to head into the dreaded summer. No festivals/concerts, etc this fall and probably not much convention and business travel either.
Let's use the number of restaurants open pre-covid as 1,000. How many do you think will be out of business by September?
I'm thinking 75 or so.
9
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:35 pm to notiger1997
Some restaurants will hold on due to take out.
The bars will take a bigger hit.
The bars will take a bigger hit.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:45 pm to Saskwatch
Yeah bars can be included in this discussion as well.
I rode my bike all through the French Quarter and the CBD on Saturday and it just hit me at how many restaurants/bars we have.
I rode my bike all through the French Quarter and the CBD on Saturday and it just hit me at how many restaurants/bars we have.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:49 pm to notiger1997
How many would normally close?
There are probably 50+ restaurants that close every year.
Or are you asking what iconic places will close?
There are probably 50+ restaurants that close every year.
Or are you asking what iconic places will close?
This post was edited on 4/27/20 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:51 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Let's use the number of restaurants open pre-covid as 1,000. How many do you think will be out of business by September?
I'm thinking 75 or so.
More than 75/1000 restaurants close every year without a virus outbreak
Posted on 4/27/20 at 2:56 pm to Ed Osteen
True, but I was thinking of the May 1st through the end of August time frame alone.
Also usually something else jumps back into the closed places spot pretty quickly. I just don't see this happening.
I think we will recover by 2021.
Also usually something else jumps back into the closed places spot pretty quickly. I just don't see this happening.
I think we will recover by 2021.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 3:21 pm to notiger1997
200
If you include all the small mom/pop dives. Those people are having to start to look for other means to live already. There is a group that just won’t want to start back up. I’ve seen heard some numbers. It’s not good.
If you include all the small mom/pop dives. Those people are having to start to look for other means to live already. There is a group that just won’t want to start back up. I’ve seen heard some numbers. It’s not good.
This post was edited on 4/27/20 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 4/27/20 at 3:25 pm to notiger1997
I think they will have major issues. It's going to be tough to find help to work in a place that might be allowed to sit 50% of its capacity. I don't see staff coming back when they can sit at home and make $847.00 a week.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 3:34 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
quote:
It's going to be tough to find help to work in a place that might be allowed to sit 50% of its capacity. I don't see staff coming back when they can sit at home and make $847.00 a week
Everyone is chattering about the “help” bro g scarce due to unemployment wages. If they’re only using 50% of tables, they won’t need full staffing anyway. The more serious question is whether a business can afford to open and be profitable doing only 50% of its usual volume.
Lots of places will remain closed, simply because they’re losing money more slowly with the doors closed than if they reopened at half capacity. Of course, those who quickly pivoted to takeout or delivery will be the quickest to recover, as they can keep operating in a hybrid fashion if desired.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 3:55 pm to hungryone
quote:
those who quickly pivoted to takeout or delivery will be the quickest to recover, as they can keep operating in a hybrid fashion if desired.
My wife's cousin has an upscale Italian place in Metairie that is doing fairly well with take out but the work load killing him because he cant find help.
This post was edited on 4/27/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 4/27/20 at 4:03 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
This is true for many takeout delivery places. They are not finding workers.
Posted on 4/27/20 at 4:23 pm to notiger1997
A lot of places probably were struggling to turn a profit before this stiff even hit. High rent, limited labor force, reluctant diners.. it’s not going to be pretty
Take out and limited seating will not keep these places open
Take out and limited seating will not keep these places open
Posted on 4/27/20 at 6:03 pm to notiger1997
Friend,
350 or higher. New Orleans vibrant mid to high end restaurant scene lives on tourism and conventions. The tourists and conventioners are a driving force behind NOLA's high number of good $20+ per entree restaurants per capita. I'm very bearish on New Orleans' restaurants future because it will be at least months before these people return, and when they return, they will return in small numbers at first. That's not to mention how locals also will eat out at a far less pace than before due to fear and the imprint of social distancing.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
350 or higher. New Orleans vibrant mid to high end restaurant scene lives on tourism and conventions. The tourists and conventioners are a driving force behind NOLA's high number of good $20+ per entree restaurants per capita. I'm very bearish on New Orleans' restaurants future because it will be at least months before these people return, and when they return, they will return in small numbers at first. That's not to mention how locals also will eat out at a far less pace than before due to fear and the imprint of social distancing.
Yours,
TulaneLSU
Posted on 4/28/20 at 12:23 am to notiger1997
I know a few that are already telling employees that they won't be reopening. It's going to be ugly.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:03 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
quote:
My wife's cousin has an upscale Italian place in Metairie that is doing fairly well with take out but the work load killing him because he cant find help.
Gotta be Filipo’s, right?
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:31 pm to hungryone
quote:
The more serious question is whether a business can afford to open and be profitable doing only 50% of its usual volume.
Just because they can only use 50% of their available seating doesn't mean they're missing out on 50% of their revenue. How many restaurants are at capacity all day every day?
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:18 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:I was under the impression most restaurants stayed alive from the 2-3 days a week they are slammed
Just because they can only use 50% of their available seating doesn't mean they're missing out on 50% of their revenue. How many restaurants are at capacity all day every day?
So with that never happening, I dont see how this is going to work. Hope it does though
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:41 pm to notiger1997
Using the 1400 number of places before Corona... I can see 25% of them failing within the next 12 months. Some of them are currently open, or may re-open, but since they aren't able to put money away during the spring season, they won't make it through the summer. They are running on fumes now.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 2:01 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
quote:
My wife's cousin has an upscale Italian place in Metairie that is doing fairly well with take out but the work load killing him because he cant find help.
Damn. Not a bad little side cash gig for those people still employed, if they have the free time.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 2:10 pm to LouisianaLady
Or for high school or college kids who aren’t eligible for unemployment.
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