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1
Posted on 5/13/11 at 9:46 am to cpeter9
New to this forum and have found it more informative than local/national news outlets. Seems to have a higher ratio of Fact:Garbage than other sources of info ?
Do any of the more knowledgeable members here believe that the crest pulse flowing down the river might be spreading (with respect to time) and being reduced in amplitude as small amounts of the flow are stored in the low lying flood zones? Will this possibly allow the ORCS to handle excess and keep BR on NO below the trigger point without opening the Morganza?
Looking at the graphs for Red River Landing and downstream (ignore Natchez and northward) is seems that projections don’t look as bad as a few days ago. Stressing levees between RRL and Reserve (Bonnet Carre seems to be working south of that) may be a risk but if the COE believes the mainline levees will hold is it possible that the AR will be able to keep up with most basin flow staying within the AR levees?
I think holding off opening the Morganza to not intentionally flood the upper basin (outside the AR levees) any deeper than absolutely necessary may be the gamble the COE is playing by delaying Morganza, possibly reducing the final numbers of gates opened if absolutely necessary.
Do any of the more knowledgeable members here believe that the crest pulse flowing down the river might be spreading (with respect to time) and being reduced in amplitude as small amounts of the flow are stored in the low lying flood zones? Will this possibly allow the ORCS to handle excess and keep BR on NO below the trigger point without opening the Morganza?
Looking at the graphs for Red River Landing and downstream (ignore Natchez and northward) is seems that projections don’t look as bad as a few days ago. Stressing levees between RRL and Reserve (Bonnet Carre seems to be working south of that) may be a risk but if the COE believes the mainline levees will hold is it possible that the AR will be able to keep up with most basin flow staying within the AR levees?
I think holding off opening the Morganza to not intentionally flood the upper basin (outside the AR levees) any deeper than absolutely necessary may be the gamble the COE is playing by delaying Morganza, possibly reducing the final numbers of gates opened if absolutely necessary.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 9:52 am to Rocketvapor
quote:
this forum
quote:
Seems to have a higher ratio of Fact:Garbage than other sources of info
say what?
Posted on 5/13/11 at 9:57 am to The Mick
Friday night.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:04 am to udtiger
"How big are his balls gonna look when a levee fails?"
Levees designed, constructed, and maintained by the Corps NEVER fail!
... except in Louisiana.
Levees designed, constructed, and maintained by the Corps NEVER fail!
... except in Louisiana.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:06 am to Rocketvapor
quote:
crest pulse flowing down the river might be spreading (with respect to time) and being reduced in amplitude as small amounts of the flow are stored in the low lying flood zones?
Possibly. I don't know exactly how much info the Corps has input in the models, but it's possible that they stay on the conservative side and don't account for all of the back-channel storage areas. Just a guess though - I'm only knowledgable in a general hydrology/hydraulics sense.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:08 am to Cool Hand Luke
quote:
I have never seen such a bunch of know- it - all assholes as they have on this board. Y'all need to go back to the OT
I thought we belonged on the Rant?
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:11 am to cpeter9
Don't kill the messenger here. I heard this today, but I have no idea how true it is.
I heard one of the reasons they are waiting until Saturday is so they can get a barge or two down by Morgan City to use it/them as a dam. Like I said, just passing on info I've heard.
I heard one of the reasons they are waiting until Saturday is so they can get a barge or two down by Morgan City to use it/them as a dam. Like I said, just passing on info I've heard.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:11 am to gliterein
There is no doubt that the "crest pulse" as you call it is reduced with stream length. This is a huge, heavily researched part of hydraulic engineering. There are many people at the USACE headquarters in Vicksburg who have studied and calibrated relentlessly the numerical models for the LMRV. Ive been there. Thats all they do 24/7 is look at historical gage data and calibrate a model to be able to predict the river's performance for scenarios just like this. They'll provide the best info possible, however then it goes to the politicians for decision making and all bets are off...
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:21 am to aldawg2323
As of 9:00 am CDT on 13 May, the flow past Red River Landing is 1.48 million cubic feet per second and the water level has reached 61.33 feet.
Mississippi River at Red River Landing
Mississippi River at Red River Landing
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:22 am to udtiger
quote:
How big are his balls gonna look when a levee fails?
He will just plug the leak with his giant balls. ;)
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:26 am to Bard
I would think it takes a set like this to make those decisions. 
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:27 am to bayoudude
quote:
I would think it takes a set like this to make those decisions.
Classy.
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:29 am to aldawg2323
quote:
Thats all they do 24/7 is look at historical gage data and calibrate a model to be able to predict the river's performance for scenarios just like this. They'll provide the best info possible, however then it goes to the politicians for decision making and all bets are off...
funny how that always works out...
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:32 am to F machine
quote:
so they can get a barge or two down by Morgan City to use it/them as a dam
the barges have been secured since monday...that's is not the reason why they are waiting
Posted on 5/13/11 at 10:34 am to aldawg2323
quote:
however then it goes to the politicians for decision making and all bets are off...
The decision to open the spillways are not made by politicians...it's made by the Corps whether or not to open the spillways
This post was edited on 5/13/11 at 10:34 am
Posted on 5/13/11 at 11:08 am to tgrbaitn08
So....what exact cities and towns will be effected by the opening of the Morganza?
Posted on 5/13/11 at 11:09 am to tgrbaitn08
He becomes one when he makes that call. if you dont think its not at least partially a political decision then your ignorant IMO
Posted on 5/13/11 at 11:15 am to BomBayTiger
Everyone South of morganza anywhere near the basin
Posted on 5/13/11 at 11:16 am to cpeter9
quote:
So why don't they open Morganza already?!
Opening it now with accomplish nothing but adding extra water to the AR area. The current level of the river is not a high risk threat untill we reach 1.5CFS at RRL.
Think of the river right now as a large "slug" of high volume water moving down the river. Until that "slug" of water gets here there is no reason to open up the diversion ways until its time to drain off part of the "slug"
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