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re: Mississippi River Flooding - Links & Pictures in 1st Post
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:03 pm to JudgeHolden
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:03 pm to JudgeHolden
Not sure who is familiar with this area, but with regards to Krotz Springs flooding...would the water be coming north from the Henderson swamp area? Or is there a potato levee somewhere in between?
1
Posted on 5/10/11 at 3:19 pm to When in Rome
quote:Krotz Springs is west of the AR and is not in the Morganza spillway. Water getting to Krotz would be coming from the north after breaching the fuse plug levee between Hamburg and Simmesport. I think, anyway
but with regards to Krotz Springs flooding...would the water be coming north from the Henderson swamp area? Or is there a potato levee somewhere in between?
Posted on 5/10/11 at 4:07 pm to JudgeHolden
Probably a stupid question, but as a former resident of the Northshore...will the water coming in from BC raise the water levels on the Northshore of the lake due to the bottlenecking at the other end?
Posted on 5/10/11 at 4:19 pm to GeauxGoose
quote:
does anyone know if any roads will be closed if they open up the morganza spillway? I was headed to alexandria this weekend, but i dont know if I10 or 190 would be affected. thanks
I can't believe some of the crap I've read in this thread.
Highway 10 will be closed, obviously. But no one drives on that gravel road through the spillway anyways.
Posted on 5/10/11 at 4:45 pm to The Boat
What do they think about False River/New Roads area?
Posted on 5/10/11 at 5:05 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Probably a stupid question, but as a former resident of the Northshore...will the water coming in from BC raise the water levels on the Northshore of the lake due to the bottlenecking at the other end?
raise the levels? yes, pose a danger? no
Posted on 5/10/11 at 5:55 pm to Lloyd Christmas
Looks like the Concordia, Tensas, Catahoula and Natchez are could be getting some rain starting Thursday night.
Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southwest wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southwest wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Posted on 5/10/11 at 8:55 pm to CatahoulaTigers
Just heard from a friend that they "opened the low sill structure a lot more today"... Anyone wanna share what that means??
Posted on 5/10/11 at 10:09 pm to chadg
I'd guess he means that the USACE increased the flow through the structure today to compensate for the increased flow in the river. (Low Sill is part of Old River Control Structure system)
Posted on 5/10/11 at 10:55 pm to White Roach
quote:
I'd guess he means that the USACE increased the flow through the structure today to compensate for the increased flow in the river. (Low Sill is part of Old River Control Structure system)
Knowing a little about how the CORPS operates the ORCS my guess would be that they are making discharge measurements in the morning and adjusting the flow according to the measurements. Looks like these adjustments are being made aroung noon every day.
You can kind of see from this graph:
LINK
And really see the pattern if you zoom in to a 3 day window:
LINK
Posted on 5/10/11 at 11:28 pm to ScottieP
quote:
Knowing a little about how the CORPS operates the ORCS my guess would be that they are making discharge measurements in the morning and adjusting the flow according to the measurements. Looks like these adjustments are being made aroung noon every day.
Bottom line...This worsening what will happen on the achafalaya?
Posted on 5/11/11 at 1:06 am to chadg
It's increasing the volume of Mississippi River water diverted into the Atchafalaya River.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 5:09 am to White Roach
This post will probably expose my ignorance on the ORCS but someone please help me out.
so ORCS will allow 30% of the Mississippi flow through. The anticipated max flow for the MR at RRL is 1.9 million cfs. So that would mean
1,900,000 X .30 = 570,000 cfs through ORCS
Morganza Spillway structure has a Max of 620,000 cfs and they plan to utilized 50% of the flow max so:
620,000 X .50 = 310,000 cfs.
For a total of 880,000 cfs diverted into the Achafalya basin for several weeks?? Does this sound correct?
so ORCS will allow 30% of the Mississippi flow through. The anticipated max flow for the MR at RRL is 1.9 million cfs. So that would mean
1,900,000 X .30 = 570,000 cfs through ORCS
Morganza Spillway structure has a Max of 620,000 cfs and they plan to utilized 50% of the flow max so:
620,000 X .50 = 310,000 cfs.
For a total of 880,000 cfs diverted into the Achafalya basin for several weeks?? Does this sound correct?
Posted on 5/11/11 at 6:16 am to LSU2001
For those that plan on driving up to Morganza. At this point, you can NOT stop on the roadway or the levees to look at what is going on. There are Army Humvees in the area along with cops that will ticket you big time. They installed a flashing sign that is telling you do not slow down or stop on the highway.
Oh my son-in-law was on top of the levee with his 4 wheeler. They gave him a very hard time till his granpaw showed up how happens to be a local cop. Funny thing is that his 4 wheeler weights in around 800lbs were as the Humvees weight in around 8,000 lbs and riding up and down the levee.
I was there yesterday. My daughters' house is right at the base of the levee. We walk across the levee to get a look at how high the water is and what everybody is saying how high it will get. Well, in Morganza if they don't open the spillway, the water level will get to within 2.5' from the top of said levee.
Oh my son-in-law was on top of the levee with his 4 wheeler. They gave him a very hard time till his granpaw showed up how happens to be a local cop. Funny thing is that his 4 wheeler weights in around 800lbs were as the Humvees weight in around 8,000 lbs and riding up and down the levee.
I was there yesterday. My daughters' house is right at the base of the levee. We walk across the levee to get a look at how high the water is and what everybody is saying how high it will get. Well, in Morganza if they don't open the spillway, the water level will get to within 2.5' from the top of said levee.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 6:22 am to The Boat
They wrote I-10, not hwy 10
Posted on 5/11/11 at 6:24 am to LSU2001
quote:
Does this sound correct?
Sounds close. Morganza is 600k cfs. (orcs is 620k cfs).
I just learned that a couple pages back.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 6:38 am to LSU2001
quote:
so ORCS will allow 30% of the Mississippi flow through.
It's just a 70/30 split between the MR and AR. They can send more than 30% down the AR if needed, but they will balance the numbers out later from what I understand.
quote:
Morganza Spillway structure has a Max of 620,000 cfs
I believe the ORCS will handle 620kcfs and the Morganza will take 600kcfs.
quote:
For a total of 880,000 cfs diverted into the Achafalya basin for several weeks?? Does this sound correct?
If the 1,900,000 cfs is accurate, then that is about as good an estimate as you can get.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 7:39 am to BruslyTiger
I know here in Terrebonne Parish, officials have said they were told by the Corps that about 300,000 CFS would be let through Morganza.
What concerns me about the media reporting and officials talking is if you only talk about the water going through Morganza, you aren't telling people about the flow through ORCS. I wish they would clarify and talk about the total volume being put into the Atchafalaya Basin, not just through the Morganza structure.
Over a 30 year study, the Mississippi River average flow rate was 450,000 CFS. So the way I keep trying to equate this, is if they put 1500KCFS past BR, you have three average Rivers worth of flow going by. Plus at least another River's average or two going down into the Atchafalaya Basin.
That's a ton of water.
For the engineers, is that type of thinking correct or flawed? Please let me know.
What concerns me about the media reporting and officials talking is if you only talk about the water going through Morganza, you aren't telling people about the flow through ORCS. I wish they would clarify and talk about the total volume being put into the Atchafalaya Basin, not just through the Morganza structure.
Over a 30 year study, the Mississippi River average flow rate was 450,000 CFS. So the way I keep trying to equate this, is if they put 1500KCFS past BR, you have three average Rivers worth of flow going by. Plus at least another River's average or two going down into the Atchafalaya Basin.
That's a ton of water.
For the engineers, is that type of thinking correct or flawed? Please let me know.
Posted on 5/11/11 at 7:55 am to Bowe Knows
The amount of water coming down the river is mind boggling. 1 cubic foot = 7.48 gallons. So at 1,900,000 cfs that equates to 14,212,000 gallons per second flowing down the MS river 
This post was edited on 5/11/11 at 7:56 am
Posted on 5/11/11 at 8:10 am to Geauxtiga
The latest prediction I have seen on this board is 2,345,000 CFS at Vicksburg. Not sure if any of that water is lost by the time it gets to ORCS, but assuming it isn't:
If ORCS is operated to 30%, or 620k cfs, whichever is lower, then that puts ORCS at capacity (.3x2345K=703.5K). That leaves 1,725,000 cfs which needs to get below 1,500,000 cfs before it gets to BR. To do so, Morganza will be opened to take on at least 225k cfs, but probably a little more to give the Corps a bit of wiggle room around BR.
Everyone is worried about the 70/30 split at ORCS, but they seem to fail to realize that going over 30% at ORCS is only possible up to capacity, and if capacity is 620K cfs, then any flow rates over 2,066,666 cfs will actually cause the ORCS to be operated BELOW 30%. At 2,345,000, it would be operated at 26.4%/73.6% Atchafalaya to Mississippi.
I think that is right...
If ORCS is operated to 30%, or 620k cfs, whichever is lower, then that puts ORCS at capacity (.3x2345K=703.5K). That leaves 1,725,000 cfs which needs to get below 1,500,000 cfs before it gets to BR. To do so, Morganza will be opened to take on at least 225k cfs, but probably a little more to give the Corps a bit of wiggle room around BR.
Everyone is worried about the 70/30 split at ORCS, but they seem to fail to realize that going over 30% at ORCS is only possible up to capacity, and if capacity is 620K cfs, then any flow rates over 2,066,666 cfs will actually cause the ORCS to be operated BELOW 30%. At 2,345,000, it would be operated at 26.4%/73.6% Atchafalaya to Mississippi.
I think that is right...
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