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Posted on 5/9/11 at 8:53 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Would someone with a helluva lot more knowledge than me regarding this tell me why those numbers aren't true.
I don't think the rises are linear. Also, the Morganza will open long before the crest reaches Baton Rouge.
Look here.
The curve flattens as you approach the crest. LINK []=144108&pt[]=141463&pt[]=141839&pt[]=143934&pt[]=141618&pt[]=146423&pt[]=143366&pt[]=142172&pt[]=141493&pt[]=142940&pt[]=144619&pt[]=144798&pt[]=144609&pt[]=141308&pt[]=144449&pt[]=143828&pt[]=142711&allpoints=143846,142736,143816,143998,145144,142659,142234,145887,144081,142375,143866,141506,142962,143885,143323,144201,144542,142873,143260,143099,142560,144186,143177,142054,143945,144055,141370,143630,141931,142812,141676,142534,144568,143535,144589,143030,144031,143079,144282,141445,141722,141383,143445,143646,143787,143574,143545,142773,141629,144517,142500,143196,142105,142509,142418,144108,141463,141839,143934,141618,146423,143366,142172,141493,142940,144619,144798,144609,141308,144449,143828,142711&data[]=hydrograph&submit=Make+my+River+Page!" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noreferrer">LINK
Posted on 5/9/11 at 8:53 am to AlxTgr
quote:
Rate being constant over time, for example.
It's risen over a foot per day for the last three days.
Now, while I'm not saying that it definitely will continue at that rate, I just want to know why it wouldn't. Is Morganza really supposed to help that much? Would the flow rate subside on its own? Not doubting you - just wondering because I don't know.
I ask a lot of questions...sorry.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 8:54 am to RummelTiger
I am just hoping that the Corps prediction of a possible 5' rise in Terrebonne parish is a gross overestimate.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 8:55 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
The curve flattens as you approach the crest.
Thanks for the link.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:00 am to vl100butch
Butch
I went up to Missouri in 93 to repair levee breaches after the flood up there. The people still could not believe they had been flooded. It was always how could this happen? Most never went back. I do not understand this mindset. when you live on a floodplain these are the chances that you take. You hope for the best, but its always in the back of your mind
I went up to Missouri in 93 to repair levee breaches after the flood up there. The people still could not believe they had been flooded. It was always how could this happen? Most never went back. I do not understand this mindset. when you live on a floodplain these are the chances that you take. You hope for the best, but its always in the back of your mind
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:04 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Is Morganza really supposed to help that much?
The Morganza will pull off 600k cubic feet per second. That is a hell of a lot of water. I have read here that it translates to a one foot drop in Baton Rouge but don't know whether that is true or not. Also, as many have remarked, you can still open up the Old River Control Structure more to let off some more water into the Atchafalaya.
If it is really going to be that high, I suspect it would blow through Old River before it got to Baton Rouge. The Atchafalaya would become the Mississippi River West, and the present Mississippi River would become a bayou. That would mean that Baton Rouge would not flood, but it would also drop the Mississippi River so low that Baton Rouge would be permanently damaged from a commercial standpoint.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:06 am to bencoleman
quote:
Butch
I went up to Missouri in 93 to repair levee breaches after the flood up there. The people still could not believe they had been flooded. It was always how could this happen? Most never went back. I do not understand this mindset. when you live on a floodplain these are the chances that you take. You hope for the best, but its always in the back of your mind
+1000000....
those farmers up in Missouri knew they were in a floodway....seems to me if there are towns in that area, they've had a LONG time to prepare for the eventuality...i guess growing up in Louisiana, i take either building off the ground or having levees for granted....
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:11 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
That would mean that Baton Rouge would not flood, but it would also drop the Mississippi River so low that Baton Rouge would be permanently damaged from a commercial standpoint.
Yep and NOLA would no longer be a super port. Whatever would be left to Morgan City would become the new port
I often wonder how long man can hold back the MS river from doing what it wants to do.Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:12 am to bencoleman
quote:
when you live on a floodplain these are the chances that you take. You hope for the best, but its always in the back of your mind
"There ain't nothin you can do about it
Just hope for the best, and mop up the rest."
Get Down River, by the Bottle Rockets.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:14 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
the Bottle Rockets
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:14 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
The Morganza will pull off 600k cubic feet per second
Isn't that if it is fully opened?
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:15 am to vl100butch
Pretty cool picture of Bonne Carre from the 2008 opening.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1798
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1798
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:15 am to bayoudude
quote:
Whatever would be left to Morgan City would become the new port
I think it would become the "Lost City of Atchafalantis."
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:17 am to glassman
quote:
Isn't that if it is fully opened?
I had always understood that the Corps would fully open the Morganza but would continue to keep ORCS at the standard 70/30 split. It could very well be that my assumption was wrong, but, given current conditions, I would think they would open it up completely.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:19 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
but, given current conditions, I would think they would open it up completely.
I agree. If you have the capacity to divert that much water it should be done.
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:19 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
but would continue to keep ORCS at the standard 70/30 split.
With all of the information on here - I remember someone saying that ORCS was set at a 30% government MAX.
Seemed odd to me, but...
Has the forebay been filled in yet at Morganza?
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:21 am to glassman
quote:
but, given current conditions, I would think they would open it up completely.
I agree. If you have the capacity to divert that much water it should be done.
i read a post several pages back saying they were opening like 97 of the 120 gates this week or next
and yes, the forebay is flooding/flooded
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:23 am to Beachtiger
They are opening the bays now on Bonnet Carre...
Thanks for the Live LINK
Thanks for the Live LINK
This post was edited on 5/9/11 at 9:24 am
Posted on 5/9/11 at 9:24 am to glassman
quote:
quote:
but, given current conditions, I would think they would open it up completely.
I agree. If you have the capacity to divert that much water it should be done.
Well according to this poster, they are only going to open 87 locks
LINK
quote:
OK people, this is the word I got today. Sorry I can't give out the names of were my info is coming from. The Morganza spillway will be open next Wensday or Thursday. The word will be passed out tomorrow some time. They will pull 87 locks open. Highway La 1 will be close till all gates are open and to make sure the bridge will not wash away. As I write this, there are all kinds of men working at the locks. I'm talking a shite load of them. Also the levee on the east side of the Morganza spillway is getting eating away from the Mississippi River. The Corp has install a shite load of sandbags(those very big ones by trucks and choppers) and the river has washed many of them away at this time. Not looking good!
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