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re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by jimithing11 on 11/8/17 at 11:37 am to Upperdecker
My man
Since you keep claiming #numbers and #facts...
Since taking over for an injured Cairo Santos, Harrison Butker is averaging 13.3 points per game. He has more 20-point games than Zuerlin.
Butker has been just as good, so your argument is fundamentally flawed that GZ is above and beyond the only difference-maker at the position
Since you keep claiming #numbers and #facts...
Since taking over for an injured Cairo Santos, Harrison Butker is averaging 13.3 points per game. He has more 20-point games than Zuerlin.
Butker has been just as good, so your argument is fundamentally flawed that GZ is above and beyond the only difference-maker at the position
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 11:39 am to Tigereye10005
quote:
This brings back to the argument about position scarcity. Because, I bet most teams in most leagues start a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, and top 10 K most weeks. Why? because you only start one of those and people don't generally hold on to ones that drop far outside that range - this isn't true for RB/WR.
Fine, let’s assume you start Evans in place of WR30. The point differential is still 12.2 - 9.7 = 2.5 ppg. That’s only 60% of the difference between Zuerlien and the avg starting kicker in 10 team league. My point still stands
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by jimithing11 on 11/8/17 at 11:41 am to Upperdecker
quote:
I said that after I cited statistics showing Zuerlien’s value. Read the thread man. The majority of posts in the thread are about season averages
o rly
quote:
And he has a 0 burger in half a game with Fitz last week
Stop cherry picking
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 11:43 am to jimithing11
Majority. Did you read that? Go count posts if you need to
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 11:46 am to jimithing11
quote:
Since taking over for an injured Cairo Santos, Harrison Butker is averaging 13.3 points per game. He has more 20-point games than Zuerlin.
Santos made all his kicks before that, and he had games of 6,9,6. Include that in the average for KC kickers. It drops down to 11.2 ppg. Better than the average, but not in the same league as Greg
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Tigereye10005 on 11/8/17 at 11:50 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Fine, let’s assume you start Evans in place of WR30. The point differential is still 12.2 - 9.7 = 2.5 ppg. That’s only 60% of the difference between Zuerlien and the avg starting kicker in 10 team league. My point still stands
This thread is amazing fwiw.
Alright so you're talking about trading a K who, using your numbers is a 3.2 ppg advantage, for a guy who is 2.5ppg advantage (again using your numbers)
So that's a difference of 0.7ppg
But you're also spouting off weekly averages and not factoring in at all things like Evans being able to fill for byes, or now getting to choose between multiple good options at FLEX and playing matchups, protecting injuries, etc. Not to mention the much likelier possibility that a WR or RB will go off and win you a week (not saying it can't happen with a K but it's much less likely).
So basically you're saying that because of the theoretical 0.7ppg you're losing, don't trade a guy at a position where you can find a fine replacement in free agency every week.
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by jimithing11 on 11/8/17 at 12:00 pm to Tigereye10005
quote:
This thread is amazing fwiw.
Yeah. I keep responding because I'm genuinely entertained
FWIW, I picked up a "replacement-level" kicker with Gostowski on bye this past week and got 12 points....so
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by noonan on 11/8/17 at 12:00 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Fine, let’s assume you start Evans in place of WR30.
But your typical team is not going to have a WR30 in their flex. The couple of teams at the top might have this, but not your typical team.
For example, my opponent this week in one league is starting the 80th ranked player in their flex. That's 80th at their position based on season stats.
Btw, his kicker just happens to be GZ.
This post was edited on 11/8 at 12:03 pm
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 12:03 pm to noonan
quote:
example, my opponent this week in one league is starting the 80th ranked player in their flex. That's 80th at their position based on season stats.
Who? That’s kinda ridiculous
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by noonan on 11/8/17 at 12:06 pm to Upperdecker
He's starting The Drake.
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re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 12:08 pm to Tigereye10005
quote:
basically you're saying that because of the theoretical 0.7ppg you're losing, don't trade a guy at a position where you can find a fine replacement in free agency every week
This is the last set of bye weeks. That’s not a real factor now. Injuries possibly, but loading up you bench only helps if you predict matchups correctly or the injuries happen. FWIW, the 0.7 is based on comparing GZ to Forbath (#3 rank). The average for the top 10 is more reasonable comparison, and it’s 4 PPG difference
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 12:09 pm to noonan
quote:
He's starting The Drake.
Ok. So a guy who barely saw the field until a trade. But would you rank Drake in the top 30 RBs for this week? I would
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 12:10 pm to jimithing11
quote:
FWIW, I picked up a "replacement-level" kicker with Gostowski on bye this past week and got 12 points....so
Fantastic comparison. A single, random event vs averages across a season
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by jimithing11 on 11/8/17 at 12:15 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Fantastic comparison. A single, random event vs averages across a season
You specifically mentioned Evans' "0 burger" ( a half of football, mind you) as cause for concern moving forward
Pretty sure that qualifies as a "single, random event"
But, yes, carry on
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Tigereye10005 on 11/8/17 at 12:28 pm to Upperdecker
Ok but here's the thing. And I'm going to preface this with saying that I didn't go back and fact check this, but I'm fairly confident that what I'm saying is accurate...
MOST of the time, the K that you start will end up at or near the top 10, let's say top 15, each week. So basically, unless there's some crazy fluke or you mess up real bad, you're getting near top 10 production from the K that you start every week.
That is not true at all from WRs or RBs. You could have the #1WR in the league, but he probably finishes outside the top 10 a lot based on the week. Hell, he probably finishes outside the top 30 in multiple weeks. And maybe on the season, the difference between a top 10 WR and the #30 WR isn't huge, but I bet the difference between the #10 and #30WR in a week is massive.
So, I get rid of my #1K and oh well, now I'm probably getting like an average of #8-10 value from my K EVERY WEEK consistently.
I get rid of my WR1 and replace him with a FLEX level (even assuming that's #30) and I can't count on consistency there. I have to play the right matchup, maybe pick up and drop guys to waivers a bunch to pick the right guy. If I had my WR1 (Evans) I can play him with confidence every week and feel good about my chances of him being that top 10 guy and giving me a huge advantage over if I started a guy projected to be the #30 guy. I take that upside every time no questions asked.
I hope I explained that well...might have rambled a bit lol
MOST of the time, the K that you start will end up at or near the top 10, let's say top 15, each week. So basically, unless there's some crazy fluke or you mess up real bad, you're getting near top 10 production from the K that you start every week.
That is not true at all from WRs or RBs. You could have the #1WR in the league, but he probably finishes outside the top 10 a lot based on the week. Hell, he probably finishes outside the top 30 in multiple weeks. And maybe on the season, the difference between a top 10 WR and the #30 WR isn't huge, but I bet the difference between the #10 and #30WR in a week is massive.
So, I get rid of my #1K and oh well, now I'm probably getting like an average of #8-10 value from my K EVERY WEEK consistently.
I get rid of my WR1 and replace him with a FLEX level (even assuming that's #30) and I can't count on consistency there. I have to play the right matchup, maybe pick up and drop guys to waivers a bunch to pick the right guy. If I had my WR1 (Evans) I can play him with confidence every week and feel good about my chances of him being that top 10 guy and giving me a huge advantage over if I started a guy projected to be the #30 guy. I take that upside every time no questions asked.
I hope I explained that well...might have rambled a bit lol
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by noonan on 11/8/17 at 1:06 pm to Upperdecker
Just based on projections by espn he would be 34th. But the difference between drake and the average top 10 RB is 10 points.
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Upperdecker on 11/8/17 at 1:09 pm to jimithing11
quote:
You specifically mentioned Evans' "0 burger" ( a half of football, mind you) as cause for concern moving forward Pretty sure that qualifies as a "single, random event" But, yes, carry on
Did I say that was any indication of a season average?
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by AUjim on 11/8/17 at 1:14 pm to Upperdecker
I wouldn't do it. Its a wash for me, but it depends on your team.
In our league, Evans is averaging 12 ppg. He would replace my lowest value W/R/T, which would be a guy @ 7ppg. I'll net 5 on that end.
I have Z, averaging 14 ppg. The best kicker I could pick up in free agency is averaging 9 ppg. Nets me -5.
In our league, Evans is averaging 12 ppg. He would replace my lowest value W/R/T, which would be a guy @ 7ppg. I'll net 5 on that end.
I have Z, averaging 14 ppg. The best kicker I could pick up in free agency is averaging 9 ppg. Nets me -5.
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by Byron Bojangles III on 11/8/17 at 1:20 pm to AUjim
Evans ceiling>>>Gregs ceiling
re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?Posted by BigVoodoo on 11/8/17 at 2:06 pm to knowingabyss
Trade Analyzer Fairly even trade
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