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re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?

Posted on 11/8/17 at 8:47 am to
Posted by monkeybutt
Member since Oct 2015
4583 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 8:47 am to
quote:

the math says I would have lost at least 3 games this year replacing greg’s production with evans’.


Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30580 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:01 am to
quote:

You’re comparing a position that starts 1 guy (K) to a position that can be started in 3-4 spots in some leagues (WR) If you could start Zuerlein at WR you may be on to something

It’s a fair point that he’ll replace his flex WR with his WR2 in this case. So if I add that, with the flex avg being WRs 20-25, the difference between the WR2 avg (11.3) and the flex avg (10.0). That’s an extra 1.3. 1.8 ppg total by adding Evans. Unless he has some miserable flex players, he’s still not making up the 4 points above replacement that Zuerlien provides

None of that includes Evans being suspended though. Losing that added point differential for one week of 1.8 pts with only 7 weeks remaining means the person getting Evans loses out on 1/7th of the point differential that they traded for. If you do a total point differential based on remaining weeks, that means the person loses out on even more than the 2.2 ppg that I’ve already shown. It’s becomes 2.5 ppg difference
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30580 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:04 am to
quote:

This x1000. Not only are you getting a top 10 type WR, you're getting another player in the event of injury, for bye weeks, etc. You're allowing yourself flexibility when other people have bad matchups. It's called position scarcity and it's the reason WRs and RBs are so much more valuable than Ks and (usually) QBs.

None of that matters when Evans is worth only 1.8 ppg more than an avg WR ranked between 20-25
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72029 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:22 am to
quote:


It’s a fair point that he’ll replace his flex WR with his WR2 in this case. So if I add that, with the flex avg being WRs 20-25, the difference between the WR2 avg (11.3) and the flex avg (10.0). That’s an extra 1.3. 1.8 ppg total by adding Evans. Unless he has some miserable flex players, he’s still not making up the 4 points above replacement that Zuerlien provides



Your exercise still does not quantify the true value of WR over a K

You're also basing your value on 10 team leagues and arbitrarily assigning a flex value range. This can be spun in many different directions, like someone said, it doesnt exist in a vacuum. There are so many moving parts and factors that simply cannot be accounted for

The only knock on Evans going forward is the suspension in a good matchup. The QB thing doesnt fly, he's got an 18.5 burger in Fitz only start thus far.
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
54100 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:29 am to
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills in the fact that you have to explain the value of a WR over a K.

Has Greg really been that good this season? Is he having one of the greatest seasons of all time for a K?

Only way I can see this thread being remotely sane
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31081 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:36 am to
Take Evans and run. This is absurd.
Posted by Byron Bojangles III
Member since Nov 2012
51680 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:37 am to
Yeah my first post was sarcasm
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
54100 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:39 am to
quote:

This is absurd.

Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31081 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:40 am to
That was easy to tell. The first few posts were obvious sarcasm. It got scary later on
Posted by Sampson
Chicago
Member since Mar 2012
24563 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:43 am to
Regardless of all the points y’all have made I’m keeping Greg every time. EVERY TIME.


#teamgreg
Posted by Byron Bojangles III
Member since Nov 2012
51680 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:43 am to
OBJ rookie year I really did that trade though
Posted by Tigereye10005
New York, NY
Member since Sep 2016
1592 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:43 am to
I don't know why I'm continuing to respond to this insanity lol, but I just want to point out that, according to your statement that Evans would be replacing either a WR2 (11-20) or Flex WR (20-25), you're assuming that the team also has a WR1 (1-10)

In this scenario, the team would already have 3 TOP 25 WRs, including at least 1 that's inside the TOP 10.

So if a team already has that then that team is stacked as is.

and even if that were the case, I still do this trade every time.

I could own the #1QB; #1 and #2 RB, and the #1 #2 and #3 WR and I would still make this trade every time lol.
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25418 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:52 am to
He's comparing Mike Evans to an unreasonable assumption for the replacement value in order to tank his relative value.
Posted by lsuhunt555
Teakwood Village Breh
Member since Nov 2008
38410 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 9:54 am to
I got offered Doug Martin for Greg the Leg this morning.
Posted by jimithing11
Dillon, Texas
Member since Mar 2011
22473 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:09 am to
The easy response is guys like Butker, Prater and Forbath of late have all been extremely value in terms of 15-20 point outbursts

So guess that means i should go trade AJ Green for Forbath because AJ is “underperforming”
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30580 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:16 am to
quote:

The QB thing doesnt fly, he's got an 18.5 burger in Fitz only start thus far.

And he has a 0 burger in half a game with Fitz last week
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72029 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:21 am to
Marshon Lattimore's historic season is well documented, check it out
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30580 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:23 am to
quote:

could own the #1QB; #1 and #2 RB, and the #1 #2 and #3 WR and I would still make this trade every time lol.

And you would lose out on 4 points every game. Yea your bench would be stacked, but that only matters is your 4th WR was garbage and you have an injury or a bye week
Posted by gjackx
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2007
16523 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:37 am to
quote:

I honestly didn't even know that Greg Zuerlin was the top K in fantasy this year until this thread

That, is why you fail.


For real though, I have Greg in as many leagues as I was able to grab him in.

I would probably do this trade though, but it's not as sure of a thing as it normally would be.
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
54100 posts
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:39 am to
quote:

And he has a 0 burger in half a game with Fitz last week



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