re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?

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The easy response is guys like Butker, Prater and Forbath of late have all been extremely value in terms of 15-20 point outbursts So guess that means i should go trade AJ Green for Forbath because AJ is “underperforming”

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That’s not my argument at all. Almost any receiver or running back or any other position player is worth more than an average starting kicker. Even kickers 2-5. Because kickers generally are tough to predict and score close to the same amounts over a season. But Greg is having a historic season and is in a completely different category in points above replacement. It’s like Dustin Hopkins vs AJ Green. Go look at their points per game differentials. It’s massive. Greg is the only kicker worth anything though

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You're also basing your value on 10 team leagues and arbitrarily assigning a flex value range. This can be spun in many different directions, like someone said, it doesnt exist in a vacuum. There are so many moving parts and factors that simply cannot be accounted for

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Yes I did assume a 10 team league, since that’s the standard. Many leagues are larger, but I’m going with the standard here. And the flex value range is pretty standard. In a 10 team league, your average flex is a RB or WR ranked in the top 25 of their position. Assuming every team has a standard spread of players in their skill positions. That’s an assumption yes, but we know nothing about this guy’s team, and he could be WR rich or WR poor or average

The main point I’m making with this is Greg has some value and this isn’t as laughable a trade as it sounds when you don’t know anything about their stats. It’s not “lol this guy wants to trade me a WR1 for a random kicker”

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You are still talking about a kicker that averages 2 to 3 points more than others of that position vs a top 10 WR.

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4 points more. But go look at the difference in points per game between an avg WR1 and a flex WR. It’s less than 4. I’ve already shown all of that. It doesn’t matter where you get your points, this guy is giving you 4 more than the other team’s kicker. Evans in your flex is only giving you 2.5 on avg more than your opponent’s flex (in a 10 team league)

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yes

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Ok, then you throw that out. Unless your team has championships in week 17 (pretty sure 16 is standard last week now though), in which case Evans gets shut down by Lattimore again

You're right, I glossed over the "at their position" part.

This is gonna go down as a legendary Fantasy board thread.

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That’s not my argument at all. Almost any receiver or running back or any other position player is worth more than an average starting kicker. Even kickers 2-5. Because kickers generally are tough to predict and score close to the same amounts over a season. But Greg is having a historic season and is in a completely different category in points above replacement. It’s like Dustin Hopkins vs AJ Green. Go look at their points per game differentials. It’s massive. Greg is the only kicker worth anything though

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Since you are hung up with recency bias with Mike Evans, lets look at GZ's last 4 games

3
11
17
17

By comparison, Kai Forbath over the past 4 weeks

8
13
24
16

If my math is OK, that's 61-48 advantage.

I can keep going all day if you'd like

That's what I was getting at. Your flex is not typically going to be a top 30 player at their position. In some cases sure. But unless there are never injuries and nobody misses on their draft this is not going to be typical.

This might be the case for the top teams in a league and they probably have a couple top 30 players on their bench. But the average team only wishes this was the case.

You keep changing your narrative

Don't get defensive when someone calls you out for your own words

You came in here trying to play defense lawyer, citing Evans' poor play of late and the fact that he is suspended and has an injured quarterback

You are taking into account what he's done lately, thus recency bias

All I did was take that same recent POV and apply it to your kicker argument.

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But it definitely is an average, assuming your league isnt leaving startable players on the waiver wire. Some teams will be rich or poor, but in a 10 team league it’s going to average out to the spread I said when everyone gives an effort

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But no, no it's not going to work out that way. I mean I guess if you're in that league from this thread where like the whole league is tied at 5-4 it might .

But in most leagues, it's not going to work out where most of the teams average out that way. Some teams will be good and others will suck. Again, you're welcome to go do the calculations. But I'll bet that in most leagues, a team that has it's positions average out to have 2 TOP 10 players, 2 TOP 20 players, and another TOP 25 player all at the RB/WR position is going to be one of the best teams in the league.

This brings back to the argument about position scarcity. Because, I bet most teams in most leagues start a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, and top 10 K most weeks. Why? because you only start one of those and people don't generally hold on to ones that drop far outside that range - this isn't true for RB/WR.