Fantasy Statistics "quiz" - Championship game and your up by 15

Start Simian because he basically covers anything DT88 does.

This type thinking is how fantasy football championships are lost

I play Brady and wax my opponent by 35 points and enjoy my winnings and bragging rights.

#nomercy

(Roughly) same odds that Brady gets knocked out of the game as Siemian. So that part is irrelevant

I'm just saying brady most likely ourscores semian every week. Now if it was between semian and someone like Palmer or Eli than I can see your point.

PPR? Because Simien can have a shite game but DT88 can go for like 12/150 without a TD

This is actually a pretty unique and interesting situation where you don't need to maximize your points in order to give yourself the best chance at winning. You want to maximize the number of scenarios in which you win. At the beginning of a week, you want to start who will give you the most points. With the information you have going into Monday night, that is no longer true.

The injury concerns are irrelevant for this hypothetical. Let's assume they have an equal chance to get injured, because that's the spirit of the discussion. If you don't believe they have an equal chance of injury, replace them with people who do for the purpose of this train of thought.

I think you start the QB on the same team as the receiver. You need a point differential of 15.1 to lose, which is insanely hard to do. I would love for someone to see how often a receiver out scores their quarterback by 15. Would need to be an absolutely fricking monster game, with some added frickery of like a WR pass or reverse.

Basically, odds of receiver outscoring his own quarterback by 15 are significantly less than the odds of a receiver outscoring the other teams quarterback by 15 IMO. This is accessible data as well, so there is a statistically backed answer and I would be fricking shocked if starting the opposing quarterback is the right call.

The really interesting piece of information that someone with a lot of time or some solid data access/computing ability (likely both) could scrounge up would be the point differential where this is a 50/50 call.

Not surprised that everyone fell for this trap though. Conventional wisdom is a bitch.

It changes the answer but my gut feeling is that a 15 point buffer means you'd still start the QB on the same team, even in PPR. The number of buffer points you'd need in PPR would definitely be greater than in standard, but that number still exists and is likely less than 15.

DT. 15 catches 170 yards 1 TD =39 points

Siemian 23-30 250 yards 1td and 1int = 12 points

You lose by 12 points by starting siemian