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Started By
Message
re: Update From Kirk... We need to step it up
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:26 pm to RolltidePA
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:26 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
My cousin is an ex-state rep in PA and still has connects to the R party. Texted him and he's saying that they're not looking as good as they'd hope. It's early but some of their early internal exit results have indy's breaking for Harris at about 60% which will get her over the hump.
He reiterated again, it's EARLY, we still don't know, but early data isn't what they were hoping to see out of the gate. Said as of now, they're thinking she'll take PA by a point if the pattern holds.
OMG SHuT tHe frick uP pUsSy DoOmEr!!!1!11!!!
1
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:27 pm to sledgehammer
quote:
Okay, that makes me nervous
What’s he supposed to say? He’s not gonna be like “hey guys we’re killing them we got this”
We need to pretend like the scoreboard says 100-0 Democrats. This has to be a pummeling
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:27 pm to BCreed1
The vibe from the right is nerves. The vibe from the left is calm. Not good.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:28 pm to slackster
quote:
All you’ve done is weep in here for the past 24+ hours. Log off and take a Xanax man.
Ok, big guy.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:29 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
My cousin is an ex-state rep in PA and still has connects to the R party. Texted him and he's saying that they're not looking as good as they'd hope. It's early but some of their early internal exit results have indy's breaking for Harris at about 60% which will get her over the hump.
He reiterated again, it's EARLY, we still don't know, but early data isn't what they were hoping to see out of the gate. Said as of now, they're thinking she'll take PA by a point if the pattern holds.
In the final AtlasIntel PA poll Independents were for Harris by 12%, but AtlasIntel had Trump up by 1% overall b/c they weighted Republican turnout slightly higher than Dem turnout. Based on the last two elections where Dem turnout exceeded GOP turnout, I wasn’t comfortable with that weighting. This is why I projected Harris to win PA by 1.5% yesterday ( LINK). I hope I’m wrong.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:30 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
OMG SHuT tHe frick uP pUsSy DoOmEr!!!1!11!!!
Still being a pussy I see
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:31 pm to BCreed1
quote:
We need to step it up
This is the only message we should be broadcasting to Trump Voters nationwide
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:32 pm to BCreed1
Reverse psychology
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:33 pm to BCreed1
Uh oh. Looks like somebody's sobering up.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:36 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
It's early but some of their early internal exit results have indy's breaking for Harris at about 60% which will get her over the hump.
That will kill Trump if it held true in other swing states. He has to win them by that rate you’ve got above.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:37 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
In the final AtlasIntel PA poll Independents were for Harris by 12%, but AtlasIntel had Trump up by 1% overall b/c they weighted Republican turnout slightly higher than Dem turnout. Based on the last two elections where Dem turnout exceeded GOP turnout, I wasn’t comfortable with that weighting. This is why I projected Harris to win PA by 1.5% yesterday ( LINK). I hope I’m wrong.
There are a couple wildcards in PA that you can't really project. First is the silliness in Philly, Delaware and Allegheny county and the Amish. If the Amish actually show up to vote, which is very unusual, it can cause a noticeable swing. We won't know about anything about either two until starting at about 4:00.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:42 pm to cajuntiger1010
quote:
he’s just trying to GOTV
This, relax guys. He’s trying to avoid a complacent base. Too much cheerleading right now with conservative social media. We still have to show up and show up BIGLY.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:42 pm to Figgy
quote:
That will kill Trump if it held true in other swing states. He has to win them by that rate you’ve got above.
As my cousin said "It's EARLY". The morning indy vote isn't the same as the afternoon vote. There will be a significant shift. The morning indy vote (in his area) is the liberal suburban white women. The afternoon, is when it counts. They were hoping for a few points better, but still feel good because they are ahead of 2020.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:48 pm to A1A
quote:
Pre work hours and post working hours are their time to shine.
I think this too, but do you know of any election day votes per hour data?
Posted on 11/6/24 at 6:37 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
Oh look, cannabalization rearing its head.
There was cannabalization just not the why you’ll were expecting .
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