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Started By
Message
3
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:38 am to schwartzy
quote:
22.13 is too close
And falling
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:40 am to schwartzy
I want it higher too but >20 is an absolute blowout. It doesn’t mean it’s over if it falls below 20
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:42 am to im4LSU
just want to make sure you guys know you're looking at the "election day ONLY" numbers that does not count early/mail-in votes.
The actual advantage is currently 10.19%
The actual advantage is currently 10.19%
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:42 am to pankReb
quote:
The actual advantage is currently 10.19%
What's considered good?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:44 am to GeneralLee
I just added +1 for the good guys
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:44 am to GeneralLee
But but but, The Villages!!!!!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:45 am to Mushroom1968
It's almost a million vote advantage currently. I would consider that to be pretty good. Also considering the panhandle is heavy red and an hour behind the rest of the state.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:45 am to pankReb
quote:
just want to make sure you guys know you're looking at the "election day ONLY" numbers that does not count early/mail-in votes.
The actual advantage is currently 10.19%
Right. I think they're trying to gauge election day enthusiasm.
Here's the BIGGEST thing to look at IMO in Florida.
Breakdown
Democrat
2,875,197 (32.50%)
63.82% of 2016 Clinton votes
78.95% of 2016 Democrat votes
Republican
3,834,031 (43.33%)
83.03% of 2016 Trump votes
103.52% of 2016 Republican votes
Republicans are already at 103% of the Republican votes in 2016. We still have 9 hours to go.
Democrats are at 78% of the 2016 numbers.
Those are the numbers to watch. I understand Florida has changed significantly over the past 8 years, but 78% vs 103% shows who's turning out.
At least in Florida.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:46 am to gatorrocks
quote:
Right. I think they're trying to gauge election day enthusiasm.
For sure. I just wanted to make sure that's what posters are looking at and not thinking those are actual voting numbers.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:47 am to pankReb
quote:
just want to make sure you guys know you're looking at the "election day ONLY" numbers that does not count early/mail-in votes.
Yes but the point this guy is making is to judge how big the Republican election day wave will be.. Florida being one of the only states who report updates almost immediately, it's the easiest to try and gage ED turnout.
Edit: derp- sorry
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 8:48 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:49 am to Mushroom1968
quote:
What's considered good?
If Harris can get it down to 5% or so that would be good for her. 3% very good.
Trump at or above above 7-8% is good for him
Silver Bulletin average has trump up 6.5% in polls.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:49 am to pankReb
quote:
My instincts say that a comfortable win would be in sight would be if the Advantage Trump - when the "Election Day votes only" option is toggled - is around 20% (screenshot from 2020 attached). On the other hand, if it's closer to 15%, a victory might be possible but iffy. If it is below the current posted advantage of 9.45%, then Republicans are in trouble.
So to summarize:
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
* Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
* Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble
This metric will be volatile for the first hour or so but we should start having a good idea of where it's heading at 8 AM ET. So very early!
This is the statement the nerd who made the site put out. And I have put my entire trust in her
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:50 am to pankReb
quote:
The actual advantage is currently 10.19%
And Now 11%
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:51 am to pankReb
quote:
just want to make sure you guys know you're looking at the "election day ONLY" numbers
Yes we know. Those are the parameters we need to look at if extrapolating Election Day turnout
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:51 am to BCreed1
Shows 10.23% for me after refreshing. It's been rising for a while though.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:52 am to pankReb
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:53 am to GeneralLee
Unaffiliateds are currently split 65-35 Trump. I think Republican voters are more likely to not actually register with a party than Dem voters are, so I wonder what the actual split is among true "independents"?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 8:53 am to schwartzy
No it's not. republicans were already up 840K in the early votes.
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