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Started By
Message
Nate Bronze model ran 80k simulations overnight
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:51 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:51 am
Harris won 40,012.
15
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:52 am to Tiger985
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:52 am to Tiger985
So he ran simulations until he got a preferred outcome. Got it
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:52 am to Tiger985
And she'll lose the only simulation that matters in a landslide
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:52 am to Tiger985
Means it took him 80,000 tries before he finally got Kamala to win more times
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:53 am to Tiger985
Gay Nate the hair stylist in North Campus is the only gay Nate we care about
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:53 am to Tiger985
Strange way of coping but whatever works for him I guess.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:54 am to Jakesonaplane
Damn he had to do that over and over again until he came up with a desired result that gave her 50.01% chance of winning eh? 
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:56 am to The Boat
I’d love to know what the parameters for his simulation are.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:57 am to Tiger985
I'd love to know what inputs have changed so much in a few days to facilitate a 5% change in the model.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:57 am to Tiger985
so it is 50-50???
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:57 am to Tiger985
So it's a dead heat and he has no better insight than I do
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:58 am to Tiger985
Stats are funny. Despite the slight edge by Harries overall, the most likely outcome from the model was a 312-226 Trump win. This means that Harris got the overall edge by picking up individual model wins via some highly unlikely outcomes.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:00 am to Tiger985
Simulation based on his recommended voter turnout….
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:00 am to Harry Ballz 2024
quote:
I’d love to know what the parameters for his simulation are.
A primary flaw in his model for this election, IMO, is that it heavily favors the incumbent, and he didn't correct for that. So, Harris is getting an incumbent advantage without actually being the incumbent.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:06 am to Tiger985
Each one being tweaked to get his desired outcome.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:07 am to Tiger985
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:08 am to GeauxLSUGeaux
Thought of Dr Strange immediately, lol
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:09 am to Tiger985
Just need one.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:10 am to Tiger985
And with all that modeling know how, he's still not being been able to win the 1mm offered by USA today for picking all the games of March Madness
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