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Does anyone believe Harris will outperform Biden’s final polling numbers from 2020?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:05 pm
Nevada:
Biden won by the exact final polling numbers in 2020. Trump leads by .6% in final polling. Trump by .6% minimum.
Wisconsin:
Biden won by 5% less than final poll average in 2020. Harris leads by .4% in final polling. Trump by 4.6% minimum.
Michigan:
Biden won by 1.4% less than final polling in 2020. Harris leads by .6% in final polling. Trump by .8% minimum.
Pennsylvania:
Biden won by the exact polling margin in 2020. Trump leads by .4% in final polling. Trump by 4% minimum.
Arizona:
Biden won by .6% less than final polling in 2020. Trump leads by 2.8% in final polling. Trump by 3.4% minimum.
Georgia:
Biden outperformed final polling by 1.3% in 2020. Trump had a 1% edge in final polling and Biden won by .3%. Trump’s lead in 2024 final polling is 1.3% so if those numbers hold it’s a dead heat if those outperforming numbers hold true. Statistical tie.
Do we think Harris outperforms any of Biden’s final polling numbers in 2024? She’s less liked than Hillary Clinton and a complete moron.
Crunching those electoral numbers has Trump winning 296-242 if Georgia goes blue again and 312-226 if it goes back Red.
New Hampshire is within the MOE based on 2020 polling and final results, too. Not that this means much, but the Dixville Notch polling finished 3-3 today after Biden swept 5-0 in 2020 and Hillary went 4-2 over Trump (with two other votes to Johnson and Romney).
Virginia is close to the MOE based on the same final results and final polling of 2020.
Biden won by the exact final polling numbers in 2020. Trump leads by .6% in final polling. Trump by .6% minimum.
Wisconsin:
Biden won by 5% less than final poll average in 2020. Harris leads by .4% in final polling. Trump by 4.6% minimum.
Michigan:
Biden won by 1.4% less than final polling in 2020. Harris leads by .6% in final polling. Trump by .8% minimum.
Pennsylvania:
Biden won by the exact polling margin in 2020. Trump leads by .4% in final polling. Trump by 4% minimum.
Arizona:
Biden won by .6% less than final polling in 2020. Trump leads by 2.8% in final polling. Trump by 3.4% minimum.
Georgia:
Biden outperformed final polling by 1.3% in 2020. Trump had a 1% edge in final polling and Biden won by .3%. Trump’s lead in 2024 final polling is 1.3% so if those numbers hold it’s a dead heat if those outperforming numbers hold true. Statistical tie.
Do we think Harris outperforms any of Biden’s final polling numbers in 2024? She’s less liked than Hillary Clinton and a complete moron.
Crunching those electoral numbers has Trump winning 296-242 if Georgia goes blue again and 312-226 if it goes back Red.
New Hampshire is within the MOE based on 2020 polling and final results, too. Not that this means much, but the Dixville Notch polling finished 3-3 today after Biden swept 5-0 in 2020 and Hillary went 4-2 over Trump (with two other votes to Johnson and Romney).
Virginia is close to the MOE based on the same final results and final polling of 2020.
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 2:01 pm
10
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:08 pm to Blutarsky
2020 was a COVID induced anomaly on the heels of a summer of rioting. They shot their load on that one …. I hope we never see anything like it again.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:08 pm to Blutarsky
Biden only "won" because of cheating.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:09 pm to Blutarsky
No
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:09 pm to Blutarsky
quote:This is the best argument for why Trump wins.
Nevada:
Biden won by the exact final polling numbers in 2020. Trump leads by .6% in final polling
Wisconsin:
Biden won by 5% less than final poll average in 2020. Harris leads by .4% in final polling.
Michigan:
Biden won by 1.4% less than final polling in 2020. Harris leads by .6% in final polling.
Pennsylvania:
Biden won by the exact polling margin in 2020. Trump leads by .4% in final polling.
Arizona:
Biden won by .6% less than final polling in 2020. Trump leads by 2.8% in final polling.
Georgia:
Biden outperformed final polling by 1.3% in 2020. Trump had a 1% edge in final polling and Biden won by .3%. Trump’s lead in 2024 final polling is 1.3% so if those numbers hold it’s a dead heat if those outperforming numbers hold true.
This is why the 55-45 odds in Trump's favor are probably about right.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:09 pm to Blutarsky
Does she get over/under 70 million votes?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:10 pm to Seldom Seen
The straight Blue Line going straight UP has been proven to be a statistical impossibility to anything but cheating.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:11 pm to Blutarsky
Same polling error existed in 2016.
This is what I’ve been focused on. Polls have always heavily favored the Dem but the actual margins was much more tight.
With Trump either leading or only 0.5% behind, that makes me feel very confident. But people aren’t afraid to speak up anymore with support for Trump so that might be part of the polls being tighter now.
This is what I’ve been focused on. Polls have always heavily favored the Dem but the actual margins was much more tight.
With Trump either leading or only 0.5% behind, that makes me feel very confident. But people aren’t afraid to speak up anymore with support for Trump so that might be part of the polls being tighter now.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:12 pm to FightinTigersDammit
quote:
Does she get over/under 70 million votes?
She has to get, or they need to manufacture votes to get her to at least 73-75 million. Or else it really makes 2020 look even more suspicious than we already think it is.
You can't justify more than a 10 million vote drop-off.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 12:13 pm to RolltidePA
75 minimum - electorate is larger but turnout down.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:57 pm to Canada_Baw
This is what happens when you don’t allow your electorate choose your nominee. The enthusiasm for her is in the toilet.
Harris had a terrible approval rating and magically became well liked after the was selected (without a single vote) to be the nominee? We all know that her sudden likability was a complete fabrication by the MSM to try and boost her chances of defeating Trump.
I, for one, feel that the first female POTUS should be someone of sound character and intelligence, not someone who fricked her way up the ladder.
Harris had a terrible approval rating and magically became well liked after the was selected (without a single vote) to be the nominee? We all know that her sudden likability was a complete fabrication by the MSM to try and boost her chances of defeating Trump.
I, for one, feel that the first female POTUS should be someone of sound character and intelligence, not someone who fricked her way up the ladder.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:59 pm to Blutarsky
No, I do not believe they can fabricate enough votes and maintain civility. They know it too
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:13 pm to BCreed1
Not this year.
Trumps GOTV plan crushed Harris before Election Day this year.
Trumps GOTV plan crushed Harris before Election Day this year.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:19 pm to Blutarsky
You are dismissing the cheat…
132+million “votes” for Kamala…
132+million “votes” for Kamala…
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:28 pm to Seldom Seen
and if harris wins then we know they cheated again.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:29 pm to Blutarsky
Depends on how many they steal. Biden got smashed in 2020 before the night time additions.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 12:13 am to 2024GoTigas
Bumping my earlier 312-226 number based on how Trump performed based on final polling in 2020 compared to final polling in 2024.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 6:11 am to Blutarsky
For those who doubted my thoughts on the underpolling of Trump again.
312-226 incoming!
54-46 Senate!
House being held? Still a great possibility!
312-226 incoming!
54-46 Senate!
House being held? Still a great possibility!
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