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Started By
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Why did the predictions miss so badly?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:03 pm
With Trump taking Michigan, he goes up over 300 electoral votes and hands the democrats their worst Electoral College performance since 1988.
We were lead to believe that Hillary would win convincingly. This historic "glass ceiling" bullshite was going to be something special. Nearly all of the polling and prognosticators had Hillary winning and a day later we have the worst democratic showing in 28 years. What the hell happened?
Was it a deliberate misdirection from a media who were largely in the tank for Hillary and in cahoots with the DNC? Simply an oversight in polling that underestimated Trump's support? Polled voters who weren't vocal about being MAGA for fear of judgement? We just ended up so far off what was predicted to happen. How?
16
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:05 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The big factor was the undetected turnout for Trump and the flip back to Trump from poorly educated white women.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:06 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Pure propaganda.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:06 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The internal polling was correct. Media blatantly fudged the polls.
/thread.
/thread.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:06 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Two words: liberal bias
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:06 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Also, the national polls were really close. Hillary did get more actual votes but it was close.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:06 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Here are your reasons.
They modeled the electorate in this election wrong.
Beyond the makeup, the modeled the turnout wrong.
Despite assurances it didn't matter, they did not account for the enthusiasm gap and the obvious Bradley effect.
The media also has a penchant for looking at the absolute result of poll results that are within the margin of error.
When you introduce all of those errors into the methodology along with incorrectly predicting Republican voters who stayed at home, the so-called gender gap, and the Latino gap, you get it wrong. Many on this board refused to think this was so. They got shown.
They modeled the electorate in this election wrong.
Beyond the makeup, the modeled the turnout wrong.
Despite assurances it didn't matter, they did not account for the enthusiasm gap and the obvious Bradley effect.
The media also has a penchant for looking at the absolute result of poll results that are within the margin of error.
When you introduce all of those errors into the methodology along with incorrectly predicting Republican voters who stayed at home, the so-called gender gap, and the Latino gap, you get it wrong. Many on this board refused to think this was so. They got shown.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:07 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
The big factor was the undetected turnout for Trump
Oh, you mean that thing we were mocked for months for claiming existed? Those people?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:07 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
Also, the national polls were really close. Hillary did get more actual votes but it was close.
The electoral moral victory. If raw votes mattered, Trump would have ran a much different campaign and would have carried the popular vote. Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:08 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Because polls seek opinions from previous voters, which means new voters aren't accounted for.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:09 pm to Lsuhoohoo
People didn't want to admit that they were voting for Trump. Too much BS from your liberal friends when you admit you're a Trump supporter.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:09 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
The big factor was the undetected turnout for Trump and the flip back to Trump from poorly educated white women.
Keep tellin' yourself that, bitch.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:11 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Predictions from the Pundits-black people actually listened to what he himself said and not what the media said. Legal Hispanics understand he was talking about ILLEGALS.
Polls- idiocy that 2016 Hillary=2012 Obama and 2016 trump=Romney.
There was absolutely no way that modeling the polling electorate off of 2012 turnout was going to be accurate
Polls- idiocy that 2016 Hillary=2012 Obama and 2016 trump=Romney.
There was absolutely no way that modeling the polling electorate off of 2012 turnout was going to be accurate
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:12 pm to Lsuhoohoo
One guy was spot on with the election and he saw the results exactly for what they were months in advance: Michael Moore
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:14 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The media had an agenda and got busted (again) for lying.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:14 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The Left turned perfectly rational people into villains. They do it on a daily basis. Those people have decided to stop engaging. I spoke offline to a former poster around here who said the same thing.
Simple conversations with the left often go nowhere. Everything is bigotry and hatred. it's tiresome. So we keep opinions to ourselves, don't talk about it - because you know that's what they want - and just do our own thing. You're the ultimate independent when no one knows what you are going to do.
I don't think that was the whole story, I do think some polls were fabricated or altered on purpose, but I do think the unknown voter count was way higher than they expected.
Identity politics is a loss for everyone.
Simple conversations with the left often go nowhere. Everything is bigotry and hatred. it's tiresome. So we keep opinions to ourselves, don't talk about it - because you know that's what they want - and just do our own thing. You're the ultimate independent when no one knows what you are going to do.
I don't think that was the whole story, I do think some polls were fabricated or altered on purpose, but I do think the unknown voter count was way higher than they expected.
Identity politics is a loss for everyone.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:15 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Hillary put one too many suitcases on the luggage rack and people stopped overlooking it.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:16 pm to Walking the Earth
Media missed so bad because they refused to read the signs that were there all along...huge Trump voter enthusiasm.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:16 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
quote:
The big factor was the undetected turnout for Trump and the flip back to Trump from poorly educated white women.
You poor thing.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 3:21 pm to Lsuhoohoo
People like me who told everyone that I wasn't pulling either person for president.
People like my mother who absolutely HATE Trump, but still had to pull the lever that kept the Clinton Machine out of the white house.
People like my mother who absolutely HATE Trump, but still had to pull the lever that kept the Clinton Machine out of the white house.
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