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re: Which state result caused your jaw to drop the most?

Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:58 am to
Posted by joshnorris14
Florida
Member since Jan 2009
45213 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:58 am to
Trump losing New Hampshire. I missed badly on that one
Posted by DupontsCircle
Dupont Circle
Member since Jun 2016
5823 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:01 am to
quote:

Honestly VA being that close shocked me. I knew it was over when she only won by 1-2%




Thanks for all the shite you gave me
Posted by PowerTool
The dark side of the road
Member since Dec 2009
21144 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:32 am to
Your username reminds me of a trip more than a decade ago when I had a hotel room with a window facing Dupont Circle. The drum circle and incoherent electric guitar noodling kept me awake most of the night. I can only imagine what kind of soulful wailing might have gone on there tonight.
Posted by Radiojones
The Twilight Zone
Member since Feb 2007
10728 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 3:51 am to
The absolute blow out in Ohio still has me stunned. Second is just winning PA know that 5 to 10 percent of the vote there is fraudulent.
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 6:27 am
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8064 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:00 am to
quote:

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan?

I have a friend in Philadelphia who told me it was absolutely flooded at 9:30am.

I figured the Philly vote was too strong. It wasn't until later on at night, when the NYTimes prediction reached 50%+ for Trump that I started to think he had an actual chance to win.
Posted by SquirrelyBama
Member since Nov 2011
6389 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:05 am to
quote:

Honestly VA being that close shocked me. I knew it was over when she only won by 1-2%


This
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:22 am to
Trump lost Virginia by 5%. Romney lost it by less than 4%. Both times northern Virginia votes came in late.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123887 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:48 am to
quote:

Which state result caused your jaw to drop the most?
Given the outcome? Nevada and NH

In my mind those were MUST haves if Trump was going to win. Had someone given me 1000:1 odds Tuesday morning that Trump would win, but would lose NV/NH, I'd have turned the bet down.

KAC noted their internal poll modeling was different though.

For example, I'd said for months the fact polls showed HRC up in NC by 4, 5 , or 6 points gave me real hope there was an unsampled Trump group. Common sense held HRC should be nowhere near those numbers here. How could HRC have increased Obama's best margin of victory 10-fold in a state where she held no innate popularity?

KAC saw what she believed to be the same trend elsewhere in states like PA. E.g., One NC-like question was how can Iowa/Ohio be so supposedly different from MI/WI/PA? It didn't seem to make sense. Apparently it was at her insistence Trump went so hard after PA from Day1. What a stroke of genius that turned out to be.

So
Posted by stelly1025
Lafayette
Member since May 2012
8509 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 4:51 am to
Wisconsin has to be it and I was honestly surprised about VA. To come within 60k votes in VA I don't think anyone saw that it would be that close...
Posted by beaverfever
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
32673 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 5:19 am to
Wisconsin and Minnesota. Minn has been among the bluest states in the country for decades. Trump lost by one percent.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89511 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:14 am to
Pennsylvania.

Republican fool's gold - but it wasn't this time.
Posted by Turbeauxdog
Member since Aug 2004
23175 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:26 am to
Virginia
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68178 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:36 am to
PA. Never thought he'd get it.
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22282 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:43 am to
I agree - sort of. But not a surprise if you harken back to Scott Walker vs. The Unions. I underestimated the lingering strength of the Walker effect. Damn that guy has a pair and I think Trump, at least in some way, benefited from Walker going up against the Union thugs - and winning. To me, what he did with the teachers union was a watershed moment for the entire nation.
Posted by PairofDucks
Member since Jul 2016
4992 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:47 am to
Wisconsin.

I expected Michigan. The jobs have dried up, and the dems have offered nothing useful for decades.
Posted by Prowler888
Raleigh, NC
Member since Jan 2006
153 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:51 am to
Pennsylvania and Minnesota were the shockers. Wisconsin and Michigan have been trending red over the past 6 years in state elections. It was just a matter of time for a Republican presidential candidate, with the right jobs message, to get them to flip.
Posted by tiderider
Member since Nov 2012
7703 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:59 am to
quote:

Minnesota. That state voted for Mondale, and still took hours to call.


i agree with this ... if minnesota's thinking about voting R, then the rest of the country is, also ...
Posted by ChineseBandit58
Pearland, TX
Member since Aug 2005
42574 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 6:59 am to
Wisconsin for sure. Because it was the one that was called while the issue was still in doubt and the narrow and twisted pathway was still all ahead of us.

Wisconsin opened up a whole new super-highway around all the traffic jams and I felt a wind at my back.

I was jazzed when they announced Wisconsin - that was the moment when I first felt = "this is going to happen."

Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 7:00 am to
Wisconsin. Never in a million years did I think they would go Trump.
Posted by ChineseBandit58
Pearland, TX
Member since Aug 2005
42574 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 7:01 am to
quote:

I underestimated the lingering strength of the Walker effect. Damn that guy has a pair and I think Trump, at least in some way, benefited from Walker going up against the Union thugs - and winning. To me, what he did with the teachers union was a watershed moment for the entire nation.

Precisely why Scott Walker was my very first pick for POTUS - I was quite disappointed when he dropped out so early.
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