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Started By
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Whats wrong w/Mahomes? Defenses changed.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 11/26/21 at 1:52 pm
The Wall Street Journal dug into the weeds and said one reason why quarterbacks such as Mahomes are having down years this year is because well, the defenses adapted.
quote:
Allen ran into a problem: a popular defensive scheme teams are reviving specifically to contain quarterbacks like him and Patrick Mahomes, the types of players who can torch defenses with a single flick of their wrists.
Defenses are using “two-high” schemes more and more to limit the big-time plays that have taken the NFL by storm in recent years. There are various varieties of two-high concepts, but the general idea is that it involves two safeties who camp out deep down the field to guard against big gains.
Against the Jaguars, when the Bills saw their high-powered offense get unplugged in a 9-6 loss, Allen saw these defensive looks 57% of the time—more than he had in any regular season game over the last three seasons, according to Sports Info Solutions. Allen saw a lot of it again on Sunday in the Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts....
The scheme eventually fell out of vogue and evolved—the Tampa-2 defense isn’t suddenly re-emerging to reconquer professional football. But the general philosophies behind it are increasingly prevalent. While Cover-2 accounts for only around 10%-12% of snaps these days, the number of two-high snaps—which include other variations featuring four deep defenders, like “quarters”—is up to about 36%. That’s a jump from 29% just a few years ago, according to SIS.
The fundamental idea driving all of these types of schemes is the same. With defenders focused on closing off areas farther down the field, the space closer to the line of scrimmage is more open. In effect, it dares offenses to beat them by running the ball or throwing short passes—and getting down the field through a collection of small gains in lieu of a few big ones....
It’s a trade-off defenses are willing to make because they have accepted a reality: offenses are better and more explosive than ever. In 2020, offenses averaged 24.8 points per game—more than a point higher than at any point in NFL history. Modern offenses throw the ball more than ever, march down the field easier than ever, and defenses are increasingly incentivized to concede smaller gains because they suddenly had so much trouble preventing the bigger ones.
The Chiefs are the ultimate example of a team that vertically attacks the field with a quarterback in Mahomes who led the NFL in 2020 in passing plays that went for at least 15 yards. But in 2021, he’s running into an inordinate number of these two-high looks in response: Entering Sunday’s action, he had seen them 55.8% of the time—or about 55% more often than the league average.
That has been part of a steady increase. In 2019, when Mahomes won the Super Bowl, he saw two-high 31.1% of the time. In 2020, he saw it 49.2% of the time.
In the season when Mahomes is seeing it even more than that, he has gone through the worst struggles of his career. He has thrown 11 interceptions, or as many as he tossed over the previous two years combined. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt entering this year, and that’s down to 7.1 in 2021. Even Kansas City’s offensive output in Sunday’s 19-9 win against the Dallas Cowboys was paltry compared with the Chiefs’ norms over the past few years.
The problem for offenses like the Chiefs and Bills is they thrive on going deep and aren’t as accustomed to nickeling and diming their way down the field. On early downs, excluding situations when the game is out of hand, Kansas City has passed 62.3% of the time—the second most often in the league entering Sunday’s games, according to rbsdm.com.
The team that’s far and away first in that early-down passing metric: the Bills, at 68.7%. ...
Posted on 11/26/21 at 1:58 pm to prplhze2000
Duh. Defensive coaches are smart too, they don't just hand their counterparts the chalk and take a coffee break.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 2:09 pm to prplhze2000
Good defenses always catch up to good offenses or QBs
Posted on 11/26/21 at 2:10 pm to Dawgwithnoname
It's nothing new. Defenses did the same thing to Peyton in the earlier part of his career and dared him to be patient.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 2:27 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
nickeling and diming their way down the field
This should be an easy counter adjustment for Andy Reid, being a disciple of the West Coast Offense
Posted on 11/26/21 at 4:08 pm to prplhze2000
All of that to say bend but don't break reduces scoring. Thanks WSJ
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:11 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
This should be an easy counter adjustment for Andy Reid, being a disciple of the West Coast Offense
All you have to do is commit to the running game and you can really hurt 2 high.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
All you have to do is commit to the running game and you can really hurt 2 high
Exactly. Mahomes isn’t making awful reads. He’s having to take what defenses give him which is short yardage. This year the majority of interceptions have all been coverage picks. Half of not more been deflections off receivers. I’d be concerned if he was just not seeing the defenders but he doesn’t get fooled much at all which is why he is so special at this young. If the Chiefs and Bills commit more to the run they would draw those safeties up. Regardless they still move the ball up the field with ease. The Chiefs have 18 turnovers in the redzone! Earlier they were averaging 30 ppg with 3/4 turnovers a game. Just imagine if they can hold on to the ball…which is what they did against the Raiders 41-14 type game. Sooner or later the offense will figure a way to kill it consistently. One great RB or OL dominance with possibly a stud 3rd WR option would slaughter anything trying to stop it. (At least theoretical it should)
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:36 pm to prplhze2000
This is evident in college football too - defenses are begging you to run all the time now.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:42 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
This is evident in college football too - defenses are begging you to run all the time now.
And all these flashy young coaches REFUSE to do it because it isn't cool. Fans would rather lose passing than win running. See Georgia Tech.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Chiefs don’t have a solid RB to rely on.
All you have to do is commit to the running game and you can really hurt 2 high.
That’s too shiny.
Posted on 11/26/21 at 5:49 pm to prplhze2000
Yahoo Sports posted this a month ago. I think KC is taking what the defense gives them now and just going heavy to Kelce, plus CEH back helps.
LINK
quote:
Patrick Mahomes thrives in chaos. He has ever since NFL cyborgs started chasing him. He has beaten them with his brain, his legs and his otherworldly arm. He has dissected and sidestepped blitzes. He has deflated defenses with off-balance bombs. It’s why he won an MVP, then a Super Bowl. It’s why he reached a second title game, and entered the 2021 season favored to win again.
Seven weeks into that season, though, his Chiefs are reeling. They’re 3-4, more likely to miss than make the playoffs. And their offense has regressed, in part because opponents have adopted a counterintuitive strategy to make Mahomes mortal.
They’ve increasingly opted against chaos.
They have, almost entirely in recent weeks, stopped blitzing.
LINK
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