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Started By
Message
chinese market dropped over 2% overnight and renminbi dropped as well
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:14 am
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:14 am
For those keeping score, the market is off its year high by almost 24%, the renminbi is down almost 10%.
Last month indicators, consumer spending, investment, production are all down versus forecast and YAG.
Some economic advisors openly criticizing Xi, which is unheard of. Fears that they have FINALLY awoken a sleeping giant dormant for decades.
The 200 billion of additional tariffs could hit in September, but nothing concrete, nor anything other than "proposed" goods. China promises equal measure response, but thats wishful thinking, they can only match another 70 billion, we dont export anymore than that.
I think he will do it, and I think he should do it if we dont have concrete changes in behavior, which being communist, they could implement in real time.
Now chime in IB, and those cucks who want cheap halloween decorations....even if it means their children wont have jobs....unless they speak mandarin.
Critics say Trump has given china no path to negotiate. What part of "stop the theft and take down the barriers" is difficult to grasp???
Last month indicators, consumer spending, investment, production are all down versus forecast and YAG.
Some economic advisors openly criticizing Xi, which is unheard of. Fears that they have FINALLY awoken a sleeping giant dormant for decades.
The 200 billion of additional tariffs could hit in September, but nothing concrete, nor anything other than "proposed" goods. China promises equal measure response, but thats wishful thinking, they can only match another 70 billion, we dont export anymore than that.
I think he will do it, and I think he should do it if we dont have concrete changes in behavior, which being communist, they could implement in real time.
Now chime in IB, and those cucks who want cheap halloween decorations....even if it means their children wont have jobs....unless they speak mandarin.
Critics say Trump has given china no path to negotiate. What part of "stop the theft and take down the barriers" is difficult to grasp???
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:20 am to trinidadtiger
Xi will bend the knee faster than jon snow. The agreement with Mexico is near, everybody else will fall in place.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:29 am to KeyserSoze999
The EU already has agreed in principal to lowering tariffs.
I think the main thing we are looking for is for China to stop stealing IP. I suspect that is why EU also is on our side here.
It is just a matter of how much pain China wants at this point. We can deal out a whole lot more than they can deal out.
I think the main thing we are looking for is for China to stop stealing IP. I suspect that is why EU also is on our side here.
It is just a matter of how much pain China wants at this point. We can deal out a whole lot more than they can deal out.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:30 am to KeyserSoze999
Keyser,
Thats what Im hoping for. He gets a bilateral with mejico (not nafta") and it shows the public we can get fair trade, giving them a little confidence that china will fall in line.
The problem is, even when mejico comes around, we wont see the economic benefit for quite some time, meaning chini will be even further out. Just hope the good news of an agreement with mejico will keep momentum through the midterms. If that happens you are right, chini will bend, they cant withstand long term sanctions.
Thats what Im hoping for. He gets a bilateral with mejico (not nafta") and it shows the public we can get fair trade, giving them a little confidence that china will fall in line.
The problem is, even when mejico comes around, we wont see the economic benefit for quite some time, meaning chini will be even further out. Just hope the good news of an agreement with mejico will keep momentum through the midterms. If that happens you are right, chini will bend, they cant withstand long term sanctions.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:37 am to trinidadtiger
There have been papers claiming that the initial rounds of tariffs would lower China's GDP by .1% in the short term, but could lower it by as much as .8% if they stayed in place for longer period. The longer the tariffs run and the larger % they effect, the worse for China. I don't want them permanently, but if they bring down preexisting barriers I'm all for it.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 8:38 am to trinidadtiger
but but tariffs don't work, they are just more taxes, and and they are mean... we are the world and all that shite...
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:21 am to thetempleowl
Templeowl,
I think EU is on our side due to the IP theft as well.
I really wish would plant some viruses on sensitive sites they are hacking and let them take that home and shut down some power grids, etc. And let that sink in....sometimes a good defense is a good offense.
I think EU is on our side due to the IP theft as well.
I really wish would plant some viruses on sensitive sites they are hacking and let them take that home and shut down some power grids, etc. And let that sink in....sometimes a good defense is a good offense.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:29 am to The Maj
The currency markets are what interest me at this point. The dollar keeps strengthening and the Yuan keeps eroding.
Short view it’s just currency fluctuations, long term it’s dangerous for Chinese companies that have debt in US dollars.
Simple exercise; what happens if your overall value shrinks due to a declining market and your currency tumbles vs the dollar in which you owe debt with? Your debt to equity ratio balloons suddenly....
I just don’t think the Chinese companies can keep going like they have been and I expect a major downturn there, and likely globally, in 2019. Not sure how insulated we will be, but we would be in way better shape than everyone else.
Short view it’s just currency fluctuations, long term it’s dangerous for Chinese companies that have debt in US dollars.
Simple exercise; what happens if your overall value shrinks due to a declining market and your currency tumbles vs the dollar in which you owe debt with? Your debt to equity ratio balloons suddenly....
I just don’t think the Chinese companies can keep going like they have been and I expect a major downturn there, and likely globally, in 2019. Not sure how insulated we will be, but we would be in way better shape than everyone else.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:15 am to trinidadtiger
OK which one of you shorted their market? I'm jelly as hell if you did
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:17 am to thetempleowl
quote:
The EU already has agreed in principal to lowering tariffs
And have independently imposed anti-dumping measures against China.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:19 am to fillmoregandt
quote:
Art of the Deal
Can I get an amen brother?
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:29 am to Little Trump
The way I understand it the USA could impose banking restrictions on one or more Chinese banks and that would be game, set, match. The USA may need the Euros help but they may be inclined to join us. I think just the threat would make China realize its time to give a little.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:40 am to trinidadtiger
US market is way down today, and has been stagnant since January... down about 10% since then.
This post was edited on 8/15/18 at 11:42 am
Posted on 8/15/18 at 11:44 am to MrLSU
Expect big time kowtowing from China in the near future, they're burning from the inside out.
The Chinese are hoping and burning incense that the Turkish economy does a high dive and causes a banking panic.
The Chinese are hoping and burning incense that the Turkish economy does a high dive and causes a banking panic.
Posted on 8/15/18 at 12:09 pm to TejasHorn
quote:
US market is way down today, and has been stagnant since January... down about 10% since then.
180 points is not way down. It’s still over 25k, the highest it got to was near 26k. That’s not 10%, not even close. It would have to be around 23k to be 10% down
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