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Started By
Message
The lumber bubble has popped
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:39 am
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:39 am
Good news for those looking to build. The lumber bubble has popped and the air is slowly leaving the inflated prices.
Yesterday lumber prices dropped below $1,000 per 1,000 board feet.
Chart
That’s a price not seen since late March
The cost of the average home (est 400,000) saw it’s limber package hit as high as $70,000 from what I’ve heard. That should ease by at least 20% by my estimation but maybe even more! Still relatively high though.
Lumber prices need to get around $500 per 1,000 boat foot to get back to a more normal level. No telling when that happens but the trend is headed that way.
I’m still holding out though.
Yesterday lumber prices dropped below $1,000 per 1,000 board feet.
Chart
That’s a price not seen since late March
The cost of the average home (est 400,000) saw it’s limber package hit as high as $70,000 from what I’ve heard. That should ease by at least 20% by my estimation but maybe even more! Still relatively high though.
Lumber prices need to get around $500 per 1,000 boat foot to get back to a more normal level. No telling when that happens but the trend is headed that way.
I’m still holding out though.
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 5:40 am
6
Posted on 6/15/21 at 6:11 am to SlidellCajun
The new sawmills coming on line will help, as will Mississippi and Alabama refusing the Federal payouts incenting their citizens to stay home and not work
Posted on 6/15/21 at 6:12 am to SlidellCajun
When are prices going to be realized though. I’d imagine if you go to a contractor right now you will pay a premium still.
Posted on 6/15/21 at 6:19 am to SlidellCajun
Glad that’s out the way. Now if we could just do something about the shortage of PVC resins
Posted on 6/15/21 at 7:43 am to diat150
Not sure if price at the market has made it’s way to the consumer. I’m sure it varies from store to store.
Many small operators lack storage capacity.
I have no way of knowing the pace of sale for Lowe’s or Home Depot but I can guess that it’s been slowing down.
If they have lumber sitting on the rack that was bought weeks ago, it’ll still be expensive. It takes time for the lumber bought at today’s price to get through to the store shelf and I have no way of knowing how long that will take for every retailer.
One thing is for certain, lumber is being bought you the wholesaler and retailer for much less today than it was just a few weeks ago.
Many small operators lack storage capacity.
I have no way of knowing the pace of sale for Lowe’s or Home Depot but I can guess that it’s been slowing down.
If they have lumber sitting on the rack that was bought weeks ago, it’ll still be expensive. It takes time for the lumber bought at today’s price to get through to the store shelf and I have no way of knowing how long that will take for every retailer.
One thing is for certain, lumber is being bought you the wholesaler and retailer for much less today than it was just a few weeks ago.
Posted on 6/15/21 at 8:17 am to diat150
quote:
When are prices going to be realized though. I’d imagine if you go to a contractor right now you will pay a premium still.
Probably not soon enough to affect the 2 decks I gotta have in the next couple of weeks.
Posted on 6/15/21 at 1:26 pm to h0bnail
The price of a treated 2x4x8 at my local Home Depot is down $1 (11%) from yesterday. That's something 
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:58 pm to carpetbagger
quote:
carpetbagger
quote:
1 post
You ain't from around hyea, are ya baw?
Posted on 6/15/21 at 9:15 pm to SlidellCajun
It will trickle down. Plywood still strong and actually rising.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 7:19 am to SlidellCajun
Knock on wood
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:02 am to PurpleCrewe
Hopefully it will keep dropping because I would like to start sooner than later...
Posted on 6/16/21 at 10:21 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
One thing is for certain, lumber is being bought you the wholesaler and retailer for much less today than it was just a few weeks ago.
Like I said back on May 8th...
quote:
quote:
Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months. You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.
and your reply to me...
Bold statement
I’d say that if you don’t put your money where your mouth is, you could also be in the same boat as the folks you claim to be idiots...
So... you willing to make that bet?
Lumber is going to be under $600 per 1K board feet before end of year. Take that to the bank.
This post was edited on 6/16/21 at 10:23 am
Posted on 6/16/21 at 11:38 am to Tridentds
quote:
Lumber is going to be under $600 per 1K board feet before end of year. Take that to the bank.
Yes this wasn’t a mystery. But we are still going to see some product continue to be hard to get. The resin used for plywood glue and apparently same used for vinyl will continue to increase prices on those items. Probably also affects engineered items like beams and Ijoist. Metal won’t come down for a while. So don’t expect to see a big drop in that new home cost
Also don’t expect to see lumber ever again in the 2-3 hundreds. They’ll take this time to adjust 30 years of inflation that the lumber mills never increased.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:43 pm to Art Vandelay
3 inch pvc conduit was $54.88 for a 10' stick at lowes yesterday. What the frick?
Posted on 6/17/21 at 6:58 am to SlidellCajun
The copper bubble sure as frick hasn't burst.
12/2 romex is $160/250 ft.
Dafuq?
It should normally be about $50-$60.
I've had to start adding a wire surcharge to my jobs that require lots of wire.
12/2 romex is $160/250 ft.
Dafuq?
It should normally be about $50-$60.
I've had to start adding a wire surcharge to my jobs that require lots of wire.
Posted on 6/17/21 at 10:31 am to bee Rye
quote:
Glad that’s out the way. Now if we could just do something about the shortage of PVC resins
Had to get 'em from somewhere to make the BILLIONS of hypodermic needles for the "vaccines"...
Posted on 6/17/21 at 5:24 pm to Tridentds
quote:
Lumber is going to be under $600 per 1K board feet before end of year. Take that to the bank.
So did you put your money where your mouth is?
It’s not too late
Posted on 6/26/21 at 12:46 pm to SlidellCajun
Anyone seeing any lower prices yet at the yards or box stores?
Posted on 6/26/21 at 3:18 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
It takes time for the lumber bought at today’s price to get through to the store shelf and I have no way of knowing how long that will take for every retailer.
Just the opposite of gasoline prices
Posted on 6/26/21 at 9:17 pm to Greenseed
Nope. I checked today and a 2x4x8 was almost $9 T Lowe’s.
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