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Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:11 pm
Wife and I are building our dream home at the end of the year but these lumber prices are making me rethink until next year. Are there any indication that it will go down by years end? I am not talking about pre China flu levels. I am talking about 600-700 per 1000 board feet. Any signs or hope would be appreciated. I know there have been numerous threads about lumber prices but none about the future of it. Appreciate the replies.
13
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:12 pm to shoelessjoe
No
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:19 pm to shoelessjoe
They’re getting that price now so why would they ever go down?
Posted on 5/7/21 at 11:05 pm to shoelessjoe
No to much frickery going on
Posted on 5/7/21 at 11:23 pm to shoelessjoe
A guy told me they've been smuggling in 2x4s hidden in cocaine.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 8:37 am to shoelessjoe
Yes, prices are going to start coming down before end of year. Likely to plummet by end of year or in 2022. For some reason any mention of lumber prices falling brings the negative votes on this board. 
but it is going to happen.
From Bloomberg:
I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet so a price drop of over 50% to 60% is coming. It's just pure economics and supply/demand. Lumber prices are high and the industry is responding on the supply side. Supply is going to overtake demand and prices will plummet. Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months.
You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.
but it is going to happen. From Bloomberg:
quote:
All told, we forecast that the price of U.S. lumber will plummet to $600 and $550 per 1,000 broad feet by end-2021 and end-2022,
I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet so a price drop of over 50% to 60% is coming. It's just pure economics and supply/demand. Lumber prices are high and the industry is responding on the supply side. Supply is going to overtake demand and prices will plummet. Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months.
You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 12:10 pm to shoelessjoe
Nah, what we are seeing is the effects of increasing the money supply by 4 trillion dollars.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 12:32 pm to shoelessjoe
Rates are going to have an impact, so if we see a pretty good rate hike by year’s end, something will give.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 1:35 pm to shoelessjoe
They are not. Houses will still be built. Build your home.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 3:50 pm to shoelessjoe
I need to replace a decent amount of wood on the exterior of my house. Thinking of replacing it all with 7/8 inch concrete siding. Anyone used that?
Posted on 5/10/21 at 4:16 pm to shoelessjoe
Everyone needs to stop building them it will come down. There’s no reason for them to lower the prices If people are buying it.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 6:48 pm to shoelessjoe
Lol a roll of romex is 120 dollars, its not just lumber everything is to the fricking moon.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 4:59 pm to shoelessjoe
Don’t want to jinx it but prices are ticking lower lately. The futures as well is trading much lower the last few days. Hope the trend continues.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:17 pm to shoelessjoe
I've put off all projects involving lumber until next year. Just don't see it getting back to 2019 levels in 2021. Too far to go. I think it'll start to slide a good bit, but still be cost prohibitive for most people.
We have a good friend that was under contract to build a house which they signed in early 2020. The builder just broke the contract because he was going to lose a ton of money at the agreed upon price. Our friends just filed a lawsuit. Apparently it is happening a lot right now, builders would rather take their chances in court than lose their arse on a home.
We have a good friend that was under contract to build a house which they signed in early 2020. The builder just broke the contract because he was going to lose a ton of money at the agreed upon price. Our friends just filed a lawsuit. Apparently it is happening a lot right now, builders would rather take their chances in court than lose their arse on a home.
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