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re: Crazy construction materials news I learned today
Posted on 3/2/21 at 6:23 am to Eli Goldfinger
Posted on 3/2/21 at 6:23 am to Eli Goldfinger
There’s another steel increase coming this month. Scrap has gone up another $70/ton in the last week.
Should hit us at the melting mills any day now.
Should hit us at the melting mills any day now.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 6:38 am to Eli Goldfinger
what are new home construction costs estimated now? Just 2 years ago it was around $120/so. That was for a good, not great, home.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 6:43 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
probably more cement-based construction.
Going back to brutalism? Would be appropriate considering the communist Govt we have currently
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:11 am to Eli Goldfinger
I have a project at a new boarding school being built. They have been waiting on sheetrock for 3 months now. Another project we are on is multiple months behind as well, all for materials.
My cousin is a residential contractor. He is paying 300% more for lumber now than this time last year, when he's lucky.
My cousin is a residential contractor. He is paying 300% more for lumber now than this time last year, when he's lucky.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:34 am to shawnlsu
Yet GP in their infinite wisdom decided to shut down their dequincy mill last summer due to “market uncertainty”. Laying off everyone including myself when that place would be printing money for them right now. Immediately after we were informed the market skyrocketed and hasn’t slowed down since. Stupid SOB’s, but I digress.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:35 am to Eli Goldfinger
My information is location specific and I can't speak to other regions in the country. I am a manufacturer of building materials, fabricated glass and aluminum specifically, and I serve middle Tennessee, Southern Kentucky, and Northern Alabama. My market is red hot and has been for close to a decade now, which is why I can't speak to other locations.
Float glass prices went up 8-10ish% back in December, which corresponded to about a 12% increase on the final price of fabricated glass products, such as shower doors and insulating glass. Glass supply has generally been pretty good. There's been a couple hiccups, but nothing like we had a few years back when there was a worldwide glass shortage. I luckily have options since it's a global commodity. China, Europe, Israel/Turkey, and US can all get me glass. I prefer to buy "local," but I have been getting a little more imported because of domestic supply lead times and also decreasing domestic quality.
Aluminum is where it gets tricky. Storefront and curtainwall metals are getting longer and longer lead times. What used to be a week is now 4+ weeks. God help you if you have custom doors. The price has gone up about 7% or so in the past year, so not terrible. Our industry is used to getting aluminum orders a week after ordering, so that mentality is having to change. We had some push-back on longer lead times at first, but glass companies and GCs are finally starting to understand as they see this problem industry-wide.
In addition to manufacturing, I also do installation of both residential and commercial glass. I foresee no slowdown in residential work. Frankly, I can't keep up. If you would have asked me 18 months ago if I could get any busier, I'd have had laughed at you because I didn't think I could handle any more. Shows how wrong I was.
I am seeing a slowdown in commercial construction in late spring/early summer. In talking with people smarter than myself, it seems it will be a short slowdown due to architects and clients slowing down right at the start of covid. Just sort of a lull in plans getting produced and clients pulling the trigger.
On a personal anecdotal level, I bought a house five years ago. At the time I thought I was making a mistake because I couldn't see how our local housing market was sustainable. Fast forward to now and my house has gone from $250k to $400k in value and it shows no sign of letting off the gas. Houses are still going for sale and getting multiple cash bids over asking price on the same day. It's stupid. For better or worse, Nashville is hot. It's great for business, but I'm still undecided whether it's good for the city I used to know.
Float glass prices went up 8-10ish% back in December, which corresponded to about a 12% increase on the final price of fabricated glass products, such as shower doors and insulating glass. Glass supply has generally been pretty good. There's been a couple hiccups, but nothing like we had a few years back when there was a worldwide glass shortage. I luckily have options since it's a global commodity. China, Europe, Israel/Turkey, and US can all get me glass. I prefer to buy "local," but I have been getting a little more imported because of domestic supply lead times and also decreasing domestic quality.
Aluminum is where it gets tricky. Storefront and curtainwall metals are getting longer and longer lead times. What used to be a week is now 4+ weeks. God help you if you have custom doors. The price has gone up about 7% or so in the past year, so not terrible. Our industry is used to getting aluminum orders a week after ordering, so that mentality is having to change. We had some push-back on longer lead times at first, but glass companies and GCs are finally starting to understand as they see this problem industry-wide.
In addition to manufacturing, I also do installation of both residential and commercial glass. I foresee no slowdown in residential work. Frankly, I can't keep up. If you would have asked me 18 months ago if I could get any busier, I'd have had laughed at you because I didn't think I could handle any more. Shows how wrong I was.
I am seeing a slowdown in commercial construction in late spring/early summer. In talking with people smarter than myself, it seems it will be a short slowdown due to architects and clients slowing down right at the start of covid. Just sort of a lull in plans getting produced and clients pulling the trigger.
On a personal anecdotal level, I bought a house five years ago. At the time I thought I was making a mistake because I couldn't see how our local housing market was sustainable. Fast forward to now and my house has gone from $250k to $400k in value and it shows no sign of letting off the gas. Houses are still going for sale and getting multiple cash bids over asking price on the same day. It's stupid. For better or worse, Nashville is hot. It's great for business, but I'm still undecided whether it's good for the city I used to know.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:42 am to BottomlandBrew
Metal decking is where I'm seeing the most increase.
Structural steel and re-bar as well, but not as much.
I always factor inflation into my project estimates, but lately it's overboard.
Structural steel and re-bar as well, but not as much.
I always factor inflation into my project estimates, but lately it's overboard.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:50 am to LSUBoo
We recently did some structural steel modifications to one of our facilities to accommodate some new equipment. What should have been $20k and a month to complete has cost about $25k and taken a couple months because we had to wait on some steel. It's not terrible for us as we had the time and money, but it makes me empathize with the bigger projects coming out of the ground right now.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 7:57 am to armsdealer
quote:
You would hope market forces would make some corrections
There's only so many sawmills still open. It would take too long to build any new sawmills before the market is corrected. Same with steel mills. The costs to restart and run the old mills is high, but are the potential sales high enough to overcome this cost to make it worth while.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:02 am to J Murdah
quote:
Just quoted a project where I had to hold price for 720 days, so we had to figure out escalation for essentially 2 years
That ain't no shite. If you're starting up an EPC project right now, you're in a bind. Bid something over a year ago, finally get drawings about now to order materials, and you don't have the money in your budget to cover the extra costs. Contractors getting fuuuuuuuucked.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:06 am to East Coast Band
quote:
what are new home construction costs estimated now? Just 2 years ago it was around $120/so
Stick-frame commercial with decent appointments, excluding land and design, is running >$210/sf.
We're seeing steel fabricators validating quotes for ten days.
Insulated metal wall panels are anywhere from six to eight months after approved shops.
I've heard stories about volatility of pricing in the mid 70's, but with the exception of steel in the early 2000's during China's building boom, I have never see across the board volatility like this.
This post was edited on 3/2/21 at 8:13 am
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:07 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Scenario 1
$20K down on a $200K house @30 years.
~$1,200/mo payment.
For the first 10 years, you will lose $800/mo on escrow & interest.
House updates, maintenance & repairs will probably avg $250/mo
Scenario 2
Rent a similar house for $1000 until market cools off.
No escrow, interest, maintenance or repairs.
The idea of “throwing your money away on rent” doesn’t seem to be appropriately applied to interest, escrow, maintenance, etc.
One of these things is not like the other. lol. You must not be renting a similar house if you're only paying $1000/month. $1000 will likely only get you a shack in a shady part of town. You're looking at paying $1800+/month for a house you would be paying $1200 note on or the landlord wouldn't waste his time.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:07 am to J Murdah
Don’t worry, President* Xiden will have that Chinese steel coming soon...as long as you profess your love for glorious China.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:08 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
I have a theory about the cost of things whether it’s housing, college tuition, stock market and now building materials- when everyone’s talking about the high cost, it’s a sign that things are about to crash.
I don’t think there will be a crash. But it can’t sustain at these levels. But it’s crazy the amount of people that buy anyway.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:10 am to wizard1183
quote:
Plastic houses.....the future.
I realize that’s a joke - but it’s probably going to happen, isn’t it?
Modern houses will get even cheaper, build quality will get worse, they’ll be even more disposable - more soulless.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:10 am to keks tadpole
quote:
Stick-frame commercial with decent appointments, excluding land and design, is running >$210/sf.
That seems way too high.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:11 am to Jim Rockford
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:11 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I realize that’s a joke - but it’s probably going to happen, isn’t it?
Modern houses will get even cheaper, build quality will get worse, they’ll be even more disposable - more soulless.
Just wait until Amazon gets into the pre-fab home business.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 8:12 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Modern houses will get even cheaper, build quality will get worse, they’ll be even more disposable - more soulless.
Doesn't necessarily mean weaker. You can do some good things with PVC nowadays.
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