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Message
I was killed for saying the House would go blue in 2018
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm
2018 prediction
I'll say this, I feel much, much better about Trump's re-election chances this year than I did about the house 2 years ago, but some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
Let's say Trump takes all of these swing states -
Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nebraska 2, and Maine 2. He's only sitting at 260 electoral votes.
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
As of right now, it's too early to tell until we get more accurate polling the closer we get to election day (the days leading up to Nov 8 in 2016 showed very narrow tightening in the final days).
I'll say this, I feel much, much better about Trump's re-election chances this year than I did about the house 2 years ago, but some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
Let's say Trump takes all of these swing states -
Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nebraska 2, and Maine 2. He's only sitting at 260 electoral votes.
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
As of right now, it's too early to tell until we get more accurate polling the closer we get to election day (the days leading up to Nov 8 in 2016 showed very narrow tightening in the final days).
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm
11
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm to Stidham8
You have forgotten that Nevada and New Hampshire are on the board as well.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:52 pm to Stidham8
What if he loses Texas?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:54 pm to Stidham8
quote:
True. Nevada's only 6 votes though and New Hampshire is 4.
He could pair Nevada with New Hampshire and not need to win any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:54 pm to Stidham8
quote:
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
Trump has to get one of the states he won in 2016. Biden would have to sweep all four states, and 3 of the four were Red in 2016.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to Stidham8
Trump conceded the House in 2018 and went after the Senate. I think 3 candidates that were under the poll water ended up winning.
History was on the side of the House flipping. Incumbent presidents hold an impressive record of winning a second term. The notable exception GB 1. Ross Perot cost the win over slick Willie.
History was on the side of the House flipping. Incumbent presidents hold an impressive record of winning a second term. The notable exception GB 1. Ross Perot cost the win over slick Willie.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to Stidham8
quote:
some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
fat chance.
i voted for Jo Jorgenson but i still see Biden winning this.
i do think it's gonna be very messy because so many people are passionate about Trump. at some point people will have to realize that even though Trump has not been treated fairly by the media, he still has also done a lot of damage to himself. it's easy for me to see from an outside perspective, but my close friends that are Trump supporters seem to pin it all on the media while ignoring Trumps rantings on twitter that do nothing except reinforce the people that are already behind him while driving others further away.
in an election that will most likely have the largest turnout percentage-wise in a long time, he should have worked harder the past 2 years expanding his base rather than solidifying the base he already had. (not like congress was getting much done in a gridlock anyway)
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:12 pm to Stidham8
You weren't killed, your still posting. (or are you a Dem?)
You listed 4, he will take 2, maybe 3. Minnesota IS in play.
quote:
a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
You listed 4, he will take 2, maybe 3. Minnesota IS in play.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:21 pm to Stidham8
Thank you for your concern...
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:21 pm to Stidham8
the house going blue in 18 wasnt some sage prediction 
Posted on 10/29/20 at 6:36 pm to Stidham8
You're spot on. People forget or refuse to acknowledge just how close he won those rust belt states by. He won them legitimately, but they were definitely in fluke territory. I certainly hope he wins, but it's going to be an uphill battle that goes on for a few weeks after the 3rd.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 6:38 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia,
Labeling them swing states doesn’t make them swing states. Trump loses zero of these states.
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