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Message
At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:11 am
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
This is assuming Biden can hang on to Minnesota and Nevada, I know Trump has a good chance here but let’s just say Biden holds on. On the flip slide, let’s also assume trump hangs on to Arizona and North Carolina (safer assumption IMO). Trump has to win just one of the 3 above to get to 270. He won all 3 in 2016
Biden just said he’d end fracking and transition from the oil industry. Goodbye Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
This is assuming Biden can hang on to Minnesota and Nevada, I know Trump has a good chance here but let’s just say Biden holds on. On the flip slide, let’s also assume trump hangs on to Arizona and North Carolina (safer assumption IMO). Trump has to win just one of the 3 above to get to 270. He won all 3 in 2016
Biden just said he’d end fracking and transition from the oil industry. Goodbye Pennsylvania
15
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:12 am to Jeb Busch Lite
2 of 3, but still worried about fraud. Dems will Dem.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:14 am to Jeb Busch Lite
If Trump can pick off Nevada or New Hampshire, it puts a lot of pressure on Biden. Trump wins if he would get one of MI, WI or PA, and Biden would have to sweep.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:16 am to Jeb Busch Lite
He will win all 3 again and Arizona. I believe he will win NC but it will be close. I also think Trump makes it very close on the national vote as well.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:17 am to Jeb Busch Lite
The only way Trump loses Pennsylvania is due to fraud. Thanks to Roberts, that is a possible outcome.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 9:18 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:18 am to Tiger on the Rag
quote:
I also think Trump makes it very close on the national vote as well.
The increase in Latino/AA support should vault him ahead in popular vote, so those crying about that won't have it to point to.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:18 am to Jeb Busch Lite
wrong. florida all that matter
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:18 am to Jeb Busch Lite
I am very worried about Arizona
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:25 am to Jeb Busch Lite
Florida is still in play (as always).
This is why both Trump (Pensacola and The Villages) and Pence (Lakeland and Tallahassee) will be in Florida during the next few days. Obama will be in Miami on Saturday.
This is why both Trump (Pensacola and The Villages) and Pence (Lakeland and Tallahassee) will be in Florida during the next few days. Obama will be in Miami on Saturday.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:31 am to Jeb Busch Lite
quote:
(safer assumption IMO).
I hope you're right but your characterizations of your assumptions are objectively wrong. Trump is projected to lose both states you assume he will win and all three states you think he has a shot at.
And 1/3 of all votes have already been cast.
Pennsylvania
Biden +5
Biden +5 Biden +8
Even Precious Trafalgar group Biden +2.5
Michigan
Biden +12
Biden +7
Biden +10
Precious Trafalgar only has Trump up 0.5% (well within margin of error)
Wisconsin
Biden +5
Biden +8
Biden +8
Precious Trafalgar Has Biden +1.3
North Carolina
Trump +1
Biden +3
Biden +3
Biden +3
Biden +4
Arizona
Biden +1
Biden +3
Biden +6
Biden +3
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:35 am to Jeb Busch Lite
Trump wins narrowly with FL, AZ, NC, ME2, NE2, and Wisconsin. Should he lose one or both of the two small districts, then he needs to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania instead of Wisconsin.
This assumes Biden wins NV NH MN, Trump wins TX IN IA OH.
The only poll that counts is the one on November 3.
This assumes Biden wins NV NH MN, Trump wins TX IN IA OH.
The only poll that counts is the one on November 3.
This post was edited on 10/23/20 at 9:38 am
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:35 am to ROPO
quote:
Wisconsin
Biden +5
Biden +8
Biden +8
Precious Trafalgar Has Biden +1.3
Hillary's RCP average entering the election in 2016 was +6.5 and Trump won the state by +0.7
Traditional polling is inherently flawed and only those who follow new (improved) methodologies should be trusted.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:36 am to Tigertracks
Good analysis.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:39 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Traditional polling is inherently flawed and only those who follow new (improved) methodologies should be trusted.
Do you really believe that these polls, who got it wrong in 2016 but got it right in 2018, are reverting back to 2106 methodology? Of course not. But, hey, it's all we've got to hope for a miracle.
Trump lost this election via his tweets, his dog whistles and what he did or didn't due in April.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:40 am to Jeb Busch Lite
quote:
At the end of the day, this election will come down to 3 states
At this point it might come to California, Hawaii, and New York.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:41 am to ROPO
quote:
I hope you're right but your characterizations of your assumptions are objectively wrong. Trump is projected to lose both states you assume he will win and all three states you think he has a shot at.
You just posted in the other thread about posting shite that projects your biases
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:45 am to ROPO
quote:
but got it right in 2018
There was a Presidential Election in 2018?
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:47 am to anc
Why is Trump rallying in NH this weekend?
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:48 am to ROPO
quote:
are reverting back to 2106 methodology?
Yes.
The people conducting these polls are suicide bombers who will do anything to get rid of OMB.
What have these liars done that would make you give them the benefit of the doubt?
They weren't wrong in 2016 by accident, it was an intentional, coordianated effort to get Hildabitch elected....they didn't suddenly become unbiased.
Posted on 10/23/20 at 9:50 am to ROPO
quote:They didn't. They did not pick up on the historic gains in the Senate. Ask governor Gilum and Senators Nelson and Mccaskill.
but got it right in 2018
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