Early Voting is trending Republican's way in Nevada

Nevada has 2 weeks of early voting and early voting has become the norm there, about 60-70% of the total vote tends to happen in the early voting period so based on the early voting stats, you can reasonably guess the result.

Historically Dems slowly and steadily build a lead in the early voting period. Republican voters tend to prefer to vote on election day, so every day over the 2 week early voting period, the Dems slowly and steadily build a net ballot lead. They'll add a few thousand a day to their lead.

At the end of early voting in 2016 Democrats had a net state wide margin of 45,000 more votes than Republicans. The final result was Clinton winning the state by 27,000 votes. Republicans turned out more on election day and probably won the independent vote by a small margin as well, but it wasn't enough to overcome the deficit.

This cycle is very different. Dems quickly jumped out to a 50,000 net lead thanks to mail in voting and were celebrating because historically Dems lead in early voting just grows more day by day.

However Republicans are actually winning the early in person vote in Nevada every day. The mail in returns have dried up and the in person voting early voting has favored Republicans, which never happens. The Dem lead statewide has actually been cut to 45K after 5 days of early voting. Republicans are now the ones picking up a few thousand net votes every day. If this trend continues over the next week Nevada will definitely be in play. If the trend reverses and Democrats begin padding their lead again, then Dems will probably hold it.

Regardless, things are trending the right way for now.