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Message
I’m not saying Rasmussen is intentionally misleading but
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:15 am
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:15 am
You don’t go from Trump down by 12% to Trump down by 5% in one week.
Trump was never down and he’s not 5% below Biden.
LINK
Trump was never down and he’s not 5% below Biden.
LINK
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 9:02 am
12
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:17 am to FlexDawg
All of these pollsters are going to start correcting course within the next 2 weeks. Nobody wants to be the big loser in that game after 2016.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:19 am to FlexDawg
I agree. "Fool me once" with the polls (2016).. it won't happen again. They are going to slowly tighten up as we get closer and closer to 11/3. If they're going to be wrong again, they don't want to be wrong by such a large margin.
ETA:
Assuming the majority of that 23% votes for Trump - or at least doesn't vote for Biden - this thing won't even be close. That is a HUGE number.
ETA:
quote:
Still Holds 23% Approval with Black Voters
Assuming the majority of that 23% votes for Trump - or at least doesn't vote for Biden - this thing won't even be close. That is a HUGE number.
This post was edited on 10/15/20 at 8:24 am
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:20 am to FlexDawg
Like Biden has ever been up 12 points outside of CA and NY
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:20 am to FlexDawg
What is LA Times saying b/c they were one of the few that were correct in 2016.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:21 am to FlexDawg
quote:they are intentionally misleading
I’m not saying Rasmussen is intentionally misleading
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:21 am to RollTide4Ever
Were they accurate in the past as well? Are they using the same polling service?
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:23 am to FlexDawg
Rasmussen was very accurate last time.
They have changed ownership. Not sure what effect that has caused.
They have changed ownership. Not sure what effect that has caused.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:25 am to RollTide4Ever
I looked and can't find the LA Times tracking poll.
I wonder if they stopped doing it.
I wonder if they stopped doing it.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:29 am to bird35
Actually, they were to accurate in 2016 so they changed how they are conducting the poll.
The new polling method has Biden up by 11.
Why would one of the few accurate polls change??
The new polling method has Biden up by 11.
Why would one of the few accurate polls change??
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:30 am to FlexDawg
For arguments sake I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say their "projection" models re: turnout may have been off when compared to what is actually happening in early voting. I think the pollster firmly believe the 2018 election will be reflective of what happens in 2020. And maybe they will ultimately be right. But Trump wasn't on the 2018 ballot. People don't show up for mid-term elections like they do in presidential elections. The pollsters are assuming that younger voters will show up in droves somewhat like they did in 2018...ignoring the fact that the same people who showed up in 2016 to support Trump will do so again. Plus, there may be that hidden group that "lean conservative" who didn't trust Trump enough to vote for him in 2016 that are now all in.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:44 am to FlexDawg
Listened to Dr. Turley on the poll with a 12 point advantage. He quoted a pollster that stated one of the underlying assumptions in the results was that only 75% of republicans would vote Trump.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:44 am to Alt26
What's their endgame here? They think showing Biden up 12 in PA will somehow discourage and decrease voter turnout for Trump?
If I'm sitting at home thinking "he can probably win without me" and you tell me he's down that much, I'm RUNNING to the polls to try and help out
If I'm sitting at home thinking "he can probably win without me" and you tell me he's down that much, I'm RUNNING to the polls to try and help out
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:50 am to Alt26
quote:
hidden group that "lean conservative" who didn't trust Trump enough to vote for him in 2016 that are now all in.
I voted 3rd party in 2016 because I didnt trust Trump, so it was purely a protest vote. Almost immediately following the election i made sure to have myself fitted for a coat and will most certainly be voting for the President this time.
I suspect there are a fair number of people that share my experience.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 8:59 am to bird35
quote:
The new polling method has Biden up by 11.
He’s only “up” 5 now. Which is what I’m talking about. You don’t go from down 12% to down 5% in one week.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:00 am to FlexDawg
Pollsters will start trying to be accurate the closer we get to the election. So many of them screwed up in 2016. They can't afford to do it again in 2020 and retain credibility.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:04 am to FlexDawg
But all the other news outlets tell me that Biden has his biggest double digit lead that he has ever had over Trump. 
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:20 am to FlexDawg
quote:
You don’t go from Trump down by 12% to Trump down by 5% in one week.
A lot of screwy things have been happening with polls.
Watch Narcos Mexico and see if you've seen this episode before. During the Mexican election, reports showed 1 candidate is up, which wasn't true, in an attempt to discourage their opponents' supporters from coming to vote. Sounds awfully familiar.
Trump isn't down. The dems are using tactica to discourage and demoralize the turnout for Trump supporters. If people think Trump has no chance they won't show up to the polls. Just like back in 200p when Florida was called too soon for Gore and it took SCOTUS to end it.
If the democrats truly had a unsurmountable lead, they wouldn't need every dirty trick like that, they wouldn't need mail in ballot harvesting and they surely wouldn't need illegal aliens to vote.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:37 am to FlexDawg
quote:
I’m not saying Rasmussen is intentionally misleading but
The closer you get to election day, the more accurate the polls try to be. Meaning - they lie less because they need to be hired in future cycles and no one is going to jire a poll that claims Biden has a 14 point lead on election day.
Posted on 10/15/20 at 9:38 am to ItzMe1972
quote:
They have changed ownership
Are you kidding me?
and I have been talking about how they were accurate last time?
shite
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