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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:34 pm to shel311
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:34 pm to shel311
quote:
Being down by 8 and pretending you're 100% down 1 possession
I don't get what this means and you keep saying it. It's not "pretending" to be down one possession. You do know what that means, right? It means that in one possession you can not be down anymore. So if you score and convert the 2PC, you are not losing anymore. That's literally what it means and that's literally a fact.
Obviously the conversion is not guaranteed, but that shouldn't come into play here. It's the chance to continue the game instead of losing during regulation. And if you go for two early and don't get it, you frick yourself later and don't even give yourself THE CHANCE to tie the game because you're now added another possession that you need (which relies on scoring as well).
quote:
then are scratching their heads because now they're out of the game with not enough time to catch up, when they could have saved a couple of minutes off the clock had they known they were down by more than 1 possession.
Your argument seems to hinge upon the "knowing." You say that it's better because you KNOW that you need an additional possession and score. And that shouldn't come into play at all IMO, because we're talking about it being so late in the game that adding an additional possession essentially takes you out of the game and guarantees you a loss. Which is why it's smarter to not go for two until you absolutely have to.
quote:
Huh? The 2pt conversion success rate is below 50%, you are more likely to be down 2 possessions than 1, why would you think that's a 1 possession game?
See above. You and I clearly have a different definition of what a one possession game means.
3
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:39 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:It means you're more than likely down 2 possessions when you're down by 8.
I don't get what this means and you keep saying it. It's not "pretending" to be down one possession
quote:Ok, and you're less likely do that, this isn't rocket science here, not sure why you're ignoring that.
So if you score and convert the 2PC, you are not losing anymore. That's literally what it means and that's literally a fact.
quote:And hence, why at least 50% of the time, you are not actually down 1 possession.
Obviously the conversion is not guaranteed, but that shouldn't come into play here
quote:The end result is the same, if you frick up the 2pt conversion you're losing either way if you only have 1 possession left.
And if you go for two early and don't get it, you frick yourself later and don't even give yourself THE CHANCE to tie the game because you're now added another possession that you need (which relies on scoring as well).
quote:Of course that's better, that's a pretty logical statement.
Your argument seems to hinge upon the "knowing." You say that it's better because you KNOW that you need an additional possession and score.
quote:That's not really what we've been talking about, it was never about if you score down 15 and only have time for 1 more possession. That was never the discussion, though again, if you only have 1 possession left, it simply does not matter when you go for 2.
And that shouldn't come into play at all IMO, because we're talking about it being so late in the game that adding an additional possession essentially takes you out of the game and guarantees you a loss.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:48 pm to CocomoLSU
quote:
Which is why it's smarter to not go for two until you absolutely have to.
That's the point of the argument. You're always going to have to go for two. Why is it smarter to do it later than earlier? People will argue that you have momentum, but there can also be nerves that come into play. Going for 2 with 5 minutes left may feel like a normal play to the offense, and they can relax. Going for 2 with 20 seconds left is the game.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 3:31 pm to CocomoLSU
It’s mental gymnastics, these guys are trying to invent a statistical advantage that doesn’t exist out of thin air and pretend it’s some kindve analytics based conclusion. But notice they’re giving false equivalencies and uneven scenarios to try and prove it. The percentage play is to kick first and that’s been proven over and over in this thread. You have one guy saying 8 points isn’t a 1 possession game for crying out loud, it’s nonsense.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 3:35 pm
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