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Message
Sunbelt COVID-19 Fatality Rate under Age 49
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:12 pm
As many school districts are announcing their plans for the upcoming school year, I think its important to note just how small the fatality rate is up through the age of 49.
**The below fatality rates includes combined data from 8 states (Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, and Texas)
**All total, this group includes just under 797,000 total cases
Here is the current fatality rate based on known, reported cases for Age Groups 0-49:
0.11%- S. Carolina (includes ages up through 50)
0.13%- Alabama
0.14%- N. Carolina
0.15%- Florida (includes ages up through 54)
0.20%- California
0.24%- Georgia
0.27%- Texas
0.32%- Arizona (includes ages up through 54)
------
0.19%- TOTAL of all above states
If anything, the data is likely skewed high for two reasons:
1. People age 50 from South Carolina and people age 50-54 from Florida and Arizona are included in the numbers.
2. This is taking into account only reported cases. Since the symptoms are so minimal for most in this age range, the actual number of cases that go unreported are probably much, much higher
So in reality, the actual fatality rate for people under the age of 50 is likely less than 0.1%
Keep in mind that in 2018, according to the CDC the average mortality rate for people aged 15-54 was 0.2%.
So the mortality rate from COVID is actually smaller than the typical mortality rate for this age group prior to COVID.
Let's also keep in mind that its likely that the vast majority of all of the reported deaths for people in this age group are people who had other underlying health issues.
The point is this: For a healthy person under the Age of 50, the chances of dying from COVID are not all that different than the chance of being struck by lightning. It is unbelievable that we are jeopardizing an entire generation's education and social development when the actual Science on the matter is very clear: This is not a major health issue for healthy people under the age of 50.
**The below fatality rates includes combined data from 8 states (Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, and Texas)
**All total, this group includes just under 797,000 total cases
Here is the current fatality rate based on known, reported cases for Age Groups 0-49:
0.11%- S. Carolina (includes ages up through 50)
0.13%- Alabama
0.14%- N. Carolina
0.15%- Florida (includes ages up through 54)
0.20%- California
0.24%- Georgia
0.27%- Texas
0.32%- Arizona (includes ages up through 54)
------
0.19%- TOTAL of all above states
If anything, the data is likely skewed high for two reasons:
1. People age 50 from South Carolina and people age 50-54 from Florida and Arizona are included in the numbers.
2. This is taking into account only reported cases. Since the symptoms are so minimal for most in this age range, the actual number of cases that go unreported are probably much, much higher
So in reality, the actual fatality rate for people under the age of 50 is likely less than 0.1%
Keep in mind that in 2018, according to the CDC the average mortality rate for people aged 15-54 was 0.2%.
So the mortality rate from COVID is actually smaller than the typical mortality rate for this age group prior to COVID.
Let's also keep in mind that its likely that the vast majority of all of the reported deaths for people in this age group are people who had other underlying health issues.
The point is this: For a healthy person under the Age of 50, the chances of dying from COVID are not all that different than the chance of being struck by lightning. It is unbelievable that we are jeopardizing an entire generation's education and social development when the actual Science on the matter is very clear: This is not a major health issue for healthy people under the age of 50.
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 1:18 pm
12
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:13 pm to BHMKyle
Why do you want people to die??!??
Just wear a mask!
Just wear a mask!
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:30 pm to BHMKyle
Link ?
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:39 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
So the mortality rate from COVID is actually smaller than the typical mortality rate for this age group prior to COVID.
I don’t think that’s a particularly useful but if information.
Although in general I agree With a lot of what you’re saying, especially about schools. People forget that parents work and no school presents a pretty big issue for a lot of working parents.
The issue is can kids spread it? A large portion of our population is over 50
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:40 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
The issue is can kids spread it?
If you believe the experts, no they can't spread it with any type of significance.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:42 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
The issue is can kids spread it?
Actually there is evidence that kids become a "break" in the infection chain because they spread it so little
LINK [0]=AT3n18bbYpTRvCcPZt__9W5BnI-pkkvJcAnnEtfn7EK7cdzHRCrFeViv7yD3u_YmQN8PW3oZutRMj7W2s0dowrdWfFt2ij7fXQXmpxxnjBH6seolfDP7F95INgEMInhnmh-rG7e1VsKEkWaAntBpSg" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Yahoo!
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:45 pm to ShoeBang
Yeah I dont See the issue so much. Especially in school where you have 1 teacher per room and stuff like that.
I mean Take the normal safety steps: sanitizer, masks etc...
I mean Take the normal safety steps: sanitizer, masks etc...
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:45 pm to BHMKyle
Good info. Thanks for posting.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 1:55 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
I mean Take the normal safety steps: sanitizer, masks etc...
Studies show that this is even optional.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:01 pm to BHMKyle
What do you say to the teachers who are over 50 and would be congregating in classrooms with 20 or so kids 5-6 hours a day?
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:06 pm to BHMKyle
Good info. Did you calculate these yourself or is there a site that has this information?
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:07 pm to BHMKyle
Some other points worth noting:
In Alabama, there have been over 13,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-24 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In Georgia, there have been over 7,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In California, there have been over 29,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In South Carolina, there have been over 9,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and just 2 fatalities
In Florida, there have been over 15,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-14 in age, and just 3 fatalities.
Children going back to school is obviously very safe. Science proves this.
Where I can understand some fear is for the teachers... specifically the older teachers. But even still, the chances of death are very low.
In Alabama, there have been just under 25,000 confirmed cases ages 25 to 49.... the fatality rate is just 0.20%
In California, there have been over 207,000 confirmed cases ages 18-49... the fatality rate is just 0.22%.
In Florida, there have been over 156,000 confirmed cases ages 25-54... the fatality rate is just 0.20%.
In North Carolina, there have been nearly 41,000 confirmed cases ages 25-49.... the fatality rate is 0.21%.
In South Carolina, there have been over 32,000 confirmed caes ages 21-50... the fatality rate is just 0.14%
In Arizona, there have been nearly 88,000 confirmed cases ages 20-54.... the fatality rate is just 0.36%.
------------
The answer to the school dilemma is pretty obvious:
1. Give all students the option to e-learn from home, but otherwise open up for normal school for all those who feel comfortable coming
2. Bring in all teachers without underlying health issues who are 50 years old or younger
3. For teachers and administrators who are older than 50, transition them over to teaching the e-learning classes as often as possible, but give all teachers over the age of 50 or those with health issues the option to not have to work in the classroom.
4. Fill in the gaps with substitute teachers who are young and healthy
I mean this really shouldn't be all that difficult or controversial. At some point people have got to realize that nothing in life is perfect so you just have to use your brain to minimize risk but maximize the situation to get the best outcome.
To those saying, "Well statistically a teacher will die.". Yes, and a teacher will statistically die in traffic on the way to work.... yet we don't force all teachers to stay at home to avoid traffic accidents.
In Alabama, there have been over 13,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-24 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In Georgia, there have been over 7,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In California, there have been over 29,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and ZERO fatalities.
In South Carolina, there have been over 9,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-17 in age, and just 2 fatalities
In Florida, there have been over 15,000 confirmed cases for kids 0-14 in age, and just 3 fatalities.
Children going back to school is obviously very safe. Science proves this.
Where I can understand some fear is for the teachers... specifically the older teachers. But even still, the chances of death are very low.
In Alabama, there have been just under 25,000 confirmed cases ages 25 to 49.... the fatality rate is just 0.20%
In California, there have been over 207,000 confirmed cases ages 18-49... the fatality rate is just 0.22%.
In Florida, there have been over 156,000 confirmed cases ages 25-54... the fatality rate is just 0.20%.
In North Carolina, there have been nearly 41,000 confirmed cases ages 25-49.... the fatality rate is 0.21%.
In South Carolina, there have been over 32,000 confirmed caes ages 21-50... the fatality rate is just 0.14%
In Arizona, there have been nearly 88,000 confirmed cases ages 20-54.... the fatality rate is just 0.36%.
------------
The answer to the school dilemma is pretty obvious:
1. Give all students the option to e-learn from home, but otherwise open up for normal school for all those who feel comfortable coming
2. Bring in all teachers without underlying health issues who are 50 years old or younger
3. For teachers and administrators who are older than 50, transition them over to teaching the e-learning classes as often as possible, but give all teachers over the age of 50 or those with health issues the option to not have to work in the classroom.
4. Fill in the gaps with substitute teachers who are young and healthy
I mean this really shouldn't be all that difficult or controversial. At some point people have got to realize that nothing in life is perfect so you just have to use your brain to minimize risk but maximize the situation to get the best outcome.
To those saying, "Well statistically a teacher will die.". Yes, and a teacher will statistically die in traffic on the way to work.... yet we don't force all teachers to stay at home to avoid traffic accidents.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:08 pm to Turbeauxdog
I just went to the various state websites and put all the data together in an excel spreadsheet.
Tennessee, Louisiana, and other states don't have great data, and Texas' is obviously incomplete based on their small numbers.
Tennessee, Louisiana, and other states don't have great data, and Texas' is obviously incomplete based on their small numbers.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:16 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Link ?
Don't know where that data comes from, but the CDC has noted that, of the 121,000 people dead either OF or WITH Covid-19, 8,650 were under the age of 55. That's 7.14%.
LINK
See Table 1, page 2
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:26 pm to LSUnKaty
quote:
What do you say to the teachers who are over 50 and would be congregating in classrooms with 20 or so kids 5-6 hours a day?
Which 14 year-old are you banging today?
Is that the right answer?
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:35 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
This is not a major health issue for healthy people under the age of 50.
We know. They don't care.
orange
man
bad..
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:36 pm to BHMKyle
Nearly 70 million over 60
112 million over 50
112 million over 50
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:37 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
The issue is can kids spread it? A large portion of our population is over 50
Studies show kids very rarely have symptomatic cases and also very rarely spread the disease.
I do agree that if some kids have parents with health issues or if they live with a grandparent, then in-person school may not be worth the risk. Let them stay home and e-learn then.
But for those who are healthy, they shouldn't be forced to e-learn (such as in LA and SD counties), and kindergartners shouldn't be forced to wear masks and stay 6' apart.
For kids ages 5-8, this is a time period in which social development is crucial. They must be allowed to play and interact with other kids if the risk is small. The mental and development risks of strict social distancing for these young kids appears to be much greater than the actual health risks.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:45 pm to Warheel
quote:
Good info. Did you calculate these yourself or is there a site that has this information?
Calculated it myself.
The issue is that some states do not post the data. And most of the states that do post their data do so in varying age ranges. For example, some states have one age category of 60-69, while others report 60-64 and then also 65-69.
It would be nice if all states were required to update their demographic info and make sure the public had access to it, and it would also be nice if they were reporting data in a uniform manner so we could get a much more detailed demographic picture for the entire country.
It seems like this would be right up Nate Silver's alley and with the resources of the NYT, he could probably make it happen. The only issue is the media is not interested in reporting these numbers because a 0.2% death rate or lower for anyone under the age of 50 doesn't strike fear.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:03 pm to OccamsStubble
quote:
Don't know where that data comes from, but the CDC has noted that, of the 121,000 people dead either OF or WITH Covid-19, 8,650 were under the age of 55. That's 7.14%.
These are two different statistics.
You are taking all Covid DEATHS and dividing out how many occurred for people under the age of 55.
My stats are taking those same deaths of people under the age of 55 and diving them among all CASES for people under the age of 55.
Secondly, the few stats we have for National Demographic statistics are skewed because of how massively terrible of a job Cuomo and DeBlasio did in New York. Literally every age demographic fared far worse in New York than all other states.
For instance for Ages 0-49, the states of Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, and Texas all have a case fatality rate that ranges from 0.11% up to 0.32%.... for an average of 0.19%.
In New York City, for ages 0-44 (taking out the people aged 45-49 and in some cases even up to age 54 included above), the case fatality rate is 0.84%. That's quadruple the death rate of those eight Sunbelt states listed above.
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