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Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:08 am to kingbob
quote:
Dude went bankrupt after SWB had BRPD basically hassle his bar customers until all his business dried up and the Alcohol board went in dry on all his shady business practices.
It's moments like that where it's important to have good friends and especially the right friends.
And delgado had no friends because he pissed off the producers and taxpayers in South BR and called St. George supporters terrorists. And the folks in the hood of North BR wasn't certainly going to stick their necks out for a white male republican even if he's a RINO.
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 11:10 am
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:11 am to Sentrius
quote:
It's moments like that where it's important to have good friends and especially the right friends.
And delgado had no friends because he pissed off the producers and taxpayers in South BR and called St. George supporters terrorists. And the folks in the hood of North BR wasn't certainly going to stick their necks out for a white male republican even if he's a RINO.
I initially really liked Delgado, but the more I saw of him the more I realized he's a loose cannon a-hole. He has no future in EBR politics.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:13 am to Mickey Goldmill
My friends and I used to hang out at a couple of the bars he fronted downtown, so I ran into him a few times. Just oozed sleazy d-bag. I didn’t appreciate how Broome weaponized city government to injure a political rival as reprisal for Delgado starting a recall effort against him, but he certainly wasn’t worth defending. He had earned the scorn and apathy of everyone who could have helped him out. He had burned every bridge.
As my father once said, “you can’t pick EVERY hill to die on!”
Who are the other two men in the race? I only know about Watson, Wicker, and Broome?
As my father once said, “you can’t pick EVERY hill to die on!”
Who are the other two men in the race? I only know about Watson, Wicker, and Broome?
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 11:17 am
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:20 am to kingbob
quote:
Who are the other two men in the race? I only know about Watson, Wicker, and Broome?
Those are the only ones I've read about too
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:22 am to Mickey Goldmill
Some guy with first name of Byron is thinking of running. A business owner? Not much I can dig up. Just what I have heard from that vixen Bess Casserleigh.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:27 am to Spyhunter3
Just found this article: https://www.wafb.com/2020/06/09/look-whos-running-mayor-president-east-baton-rouge-parish/
quote:
WAFB has heard rumors that Jordan Piazza, C. Denise Marcelle, and Byron Sharper are considering a run. We reached out to them, but have not heard back yet.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:35 am to Mickey Goldmill
Denise running would mean Broome is DOA. Denise has the radical black coalition, and it was her support that got Broome over the top in the previous election. Broome had already alienated most of the white collar professional whites and business crowd, if the BLM folks desert her too, she won’t make a runoff.
Denise is the worst possible candidate that could win.
Sharper is DOA due to his previous sexual assault allegations from last year. The charges were dropped, but that means nothing in the #MeToo era.
This election will come down to which candidate can get the most Chamber of Commerce honkeys to break for them in the primary. Due to Bodi’s desire to completely defund downtown, they ALL went Broome the last go around. It will be interesting to see how many stick with Broome or go to Marcelle out of fear of reprisals (Gravy drumming up fake racism allegations against their businesses) vs those who decide that Watson isn’t too “backwards” a republican to stomach. Bodi was just...the worst.
Denise is the worst possible candidate that could win.
Sharper is DOA due to his previous sexual assault allegations from last year. The charges were dropped, but that means nothing in the #MeToo era.
This election will come down to which candidate can get the most Chamber of Commerce honkeys to break for them in the primary. Due to Bodi’s desire to completely defund downtown, they ALL went Broome the last go around. It will be interesting to see how many stick with Broome or go to Marcelle out of fear of reprisals (Gravy drumming up fake racism allegations against their businesses) vs those who decide that Watson isn’t too “backwards” a republican to stomach. Bodi was just...the worst.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:38 am to redfish99
Even though his council district overlaps BR and St. George, the race is going to come down to whether or not the white people of BR are going to vote in protest against someone who also represents people living in St. George. The black vote is going to be monolithic behind the black candidates. That's a given. But the parish as a whole still has slightly more white residents than black residents. Assuming Wicker and Broome would split the black/democrat vote AND there are no real "spoilers" to siphon off white/republican votes from Wilson, then he COULD win in the general election...if the white BR proper voters get behind him.
The anti-St. George white BR voters got Broome elected the first time. Maybe they thought Broome would just be a continuation of a relatively good Kip Holden tenure. Four years late with St. George already having been passed and Broome CLEARLY being no Kip, do they change their tune?
The anti-St. George white BR voters got Broome elected the first time. Maybe they thought Broome would just be a continuation of a relatively good Kip Holden tenure. Four years late with St. George already having been passed and Broome CLEARLY being no Kip, do they change their tune?
Posted on 6/16/20 at 11:41 am to Spyhunter3
No, a vote for Watson just means he might have a chance to make the runoff. After that, anything can happen...I think the folks in St George, Zachary, Central, etc are so pissed off that they will show up in bigger numbers than they have the last several elections
Posted on 6/16/20 at 1:38 pm to jrobic4
If C. Denise is in, then Watson could very well win. Right?
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:14 pm to Spyhunter3
It’s all about who makes the runoff.
See, the primary is really screwy because it’s at the same time as the presidential election and thus usually has a MUCH higher turnout than the runoff. Thus, who makes the runoff is determined by name recognition, Presidential enthusiasm, and how many names are splitting the votes. The more people there are on the ballot, the more enthusiasm becomes important and the less important it becomes to have a broad coalition because a lower threshold of the vote will get you second place and a spot in the runoff (there is no vote if someone gets 51% in the primary, but that is very unlikely unless Watson is the only white candidate and Trump pulls in crazy amounts of votes while dems stay home).
So, a crowded primary field helps a polarizing candidate with a small coalition but very vocal and dedicated followers like Marcelle. A field with just 3 prominent candidates favors someone with a broad coalition who appeals to a lot of different kinds of voters with less strong feelings who are showing up to vote mostly due to the presidential election.
The general is determined entirely by turnout and coalitions as turnout is typically WAAAAAAAY lower unless there’s a competitive senate race on the ballot. In the last go-round, the field was crowded in the primary. Trump brought big turnout, but Bodi was a polarizing candidate that alienated many in the city. Many whites were told Broome was a continuity candidate who would follow in Kip’s footsteps, so they went with her. Gissel had no name recognition outside Spanish Town, Delgado had name recognition for all the wrong reasons, and Marcelle had the radical black vote. Broome’s coalition of moderate blacks and business folks got her into the runoff with Bodi. Broome then managed to absorb and consolidate the Marcelle radicals and the liberal gentrification whites from Gissel to have a wider coalition in the general and beat Bodi who no longer had the support of a ton of white Trump voters.
Watson: poor name recognition, but currently the only white candidate on the ballot as well as the only republican. Due to not being a moron like Bodi, he could get the business class to break for him in the runoff if matched against Broome or Marcelle.
Broome: incumbent who came in as a business-friendly moderate, but ended up disappointing everyone. She likely loses the bulk of her black support to Marcelle, the bulk of her moderate white support to Watson, and the woke liberal support to Wicker. She’s kinda stuck like Delgado was last go around.
Wicker: decent name recognition, moderate black woman rep, she will likely try to pitch herself as being the candidate Broome pretended to be last time.
Marcelle: radical racist communist activist. She has great name recognition and a strong organization, but limited capacity to build coalitions outside of that due to her hardline views and just being a really hard person to get along with in general. She could be a big time spoiler in the primary, but lacks the coalition building skills to survive a general. She would be the worst thing to ever happen to any city in Louisiana if elected, she’s make Latoya look like Rudy Giuliani.
This go-around, I think this race comes down to two factors:
1. Will another white Republican/independent splitter enter the race to leach votes from Watson?
2. Will the liberal and moderate whites and moderate white collar black democrats turn out to vote for Joe Biden?
If there’s no white splitter and Trump enjoys a significant enthusiasm and turnout gap over Joe, Watson wins in the primary.
If there’s a white splitter with Trump advantage, then we likely have Wicker v. Watson in the runoff which Wicker likely wins.
If there’s a white splitter with big black turnout for Biden, we probably have two black candidates in the runoff. The winner will be the one that can get the most white votes.
No splitter with large black turnout for Biden matches Watson likely against Marcelle, which Watson should win handedly in the runoff.
In my opinion, Wicker wins if she’s in a runoff, Marcelle cannot win a runoff, and Watson has a great shot to win unless matched against Wicker, then it’s a coin flip.
See, the primary is really screwy because it’s at the same time as the presidential election and thus usually has a MUCH higher turnout than the runoff. Thus, who makes the runoff is determined by name recognition, Presidential enthusiasm, and how many names are splitting the votes. The more people there are on the ballot, the more enthusiasm becomes important and the less important it becomes to have a broad coalition because a lower threshold of the vote will get you second place and a spot in the runoff (there is no vote if someone gets 51% in the primary, but that is very unlikely unless Watson is the only white candidate and Trump pulls in crazy amounts of votes while dems stay home).
So, a crowded primary field helps a polarizing candidate with a small coalition but very vocal and dedicated followers like Marcelle. A field with just 3 prominent candidates favors someone with a broad coalition who appeals to a lot of different kinds of voters with less strong feelings who are showing up to vote mostly due to the presidential election.
The general is determined entirely by turnout and coalitions as turnout is typically WAAAAAAAY lower unless there’s a competitive senate race on the ballot. In the last go-round, the field was crowded in the primary. Trump brought big turnout, but Bodi was a polarizing candidate that alienated many in the city. Many whites were told Broome was a continuity candidate who would follow in Kip’s footsteps, so they went with her. Gissel had no name recognition outside Spanish Town, Delgado had name recognition for all the wrong reasons, and Marcelle had the radical black vote. Broome’s coalition of moderate blacks and business folks got her into the runoff with Bodi. Broome then managed to absorb and consolidate the Marcelle radicals and the liberal gentrification whites from Gissel to have a wider coalition in the general and beat Bodi who no longer had the support of a ton of white Trump voters.
Watson: poor name recognition, but currently the only white candidate on the ballot as well as the only republican. Due to not being a moron like Bodi, he could get the business class to break for him in the runoff if matched against Broome or Marcelle.
Broome: incumbent who came in as a business-friendly moderate, but ended up disappointing everyone. She likely loses the bulk of her black support to Marcelle, the bulk of her moderate white support to Watson, and the woke liberal support to Wicker. She’s kinda stuck like Delgado was last go around.
Wicker: decent name recognition, moderate black woman rep, she will likely try to pitch herself as being the candidate Broome pretended to be last time.
Marcelle: radical racist communist activist. She has great name recognition and a strong organization, but limited capacity to build coalitions outside of that due to her hardline views and just being a really hard person to get along with in general. She could be a big time spoiler in the primary, but lacks the coalition building skills to survive a general. She would be the worst thing to ever happen to any city in Louisiana if elected, she’s make Latoya look like Rudy Giuliani.
This go-around, I think this race comes down to two factors:
1. Will another white Republican/independent splitter enter the race to leach votes from Watson?
2. Will the liberal and moderate whites and moderate white collar black democrats turn out to vote for Joe Biden?
If there’s no white splitter and Trump enjoys a significant enthusiasm and turnout gap over Joe, Watson wins in the primary.
If there’s a white splitter with Trump advantage, then we likely have Wicker v. Watson in the runoff which Wicker likely wins.
If there’s a white splitter with big black turnout for Biden, we probably have two black candidates in the runoff. The winner will be the one that can get the most white votes.
No splitter with large black turnout for Biden matches Watson likely against Marcelle, which Watson should win handedly in the runoff.
In my opinion, Wicker wins if she’s in a runoff, Marcelle cannot win a runoff, and Watson has a great shot to win unless matched against Wicker, then it’s a coin flip.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:27 pm to Spyhunter3
I heard Chief Leduff is running.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:28 pm to 4evrlsu
A police chief whose own BIL gets killed while he is chief can’t really run on a law and order platform.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:31 pm to Spyhunter3
Broom is going to win again. No point in anyone else even running
It is what it is
It is what it is
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:32 pm to kingbob
quote:
Marcelle
She would not stand a chance to win, but she would be a factor. She would take votes from SWB for sure. Wicker would be affected but she is on the right of that particular spectrum with Broome in the middle and Denise at the end. It would hurt SWB much more. Possibly creating a runoff between Wicker and Watson (can you imagine the polar scenario with Broome and Marcelle in a runoff? Holy hell it would hurt to press either name in the booth).
If Watson would run 1 damn TV spot. I do not think he really gives a shite.
This post was edited on 6/16/20 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:35 pm to Spyhunter3
It’s early. We haven’t even gotten to qualifying season, and I don’t think he has a very large war chest.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:36 pm to Golfer
quote:
Bodi White lost by ~4,000 votes. 5% increase in republican turnout and he wins.
The runoff also had a US Senate race on the ballot. Albeit a blowout it did help improve black turnout slightly. This years runoff shouldn’t be on the ballot with anything else that’s important.
Posted on 6/16/20 at 2:38 pm to Spyhunter3
quote:
If Watson would run 1 damn TV spot. I do not think he really gives a shite.
State and local elections are weird. You don’t have to camping for a year. They’re pretty much one or two month sprints.
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