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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:47 am to
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:47 am to
With all the data frickery going on, the only thing we can do is to just watch the trends in the 7 day averages.

It is inevitable that there will be data issues when you are dealing with so many public health systems across the country. What they need is a set of rules and guidelines for how to report data dumps.

They need to do what NJ recently did after a major dump of death data...go back and align that data with the dates it should have been reported on, that will prevent these trend skewing dumps that obscure whats actually happening.
Posted by Crimsonians
Member since Nov 2019
1596 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:49 am to
I agree except 4,000 additional cases will affect the 7-day average for Florida. Could likely be the difference from a falling 7-day to a rising 7-day.

Especially with school starting up. Convenient.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89677 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

With all the data frickery going on, the only thing we can do is to just watch the trends in the 7 day averages.


However frustrating it may be, your logic is unassailable, here.

quote:

these trend skewing dumps that obscure whats actually happening.


I mean, it makes all the difference in the world if these deaths are within the past 7 days, past 30 days or are 60 to 90 days old. That's not a conspiracy theory - it's the God's honest truth.
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1217 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:44 pm to
Georgia has been heavily criticized in some circles for actually matching cases and deaths to date of occurrence. To your point, the story once data is matched to actual dates paints a much different picture than watching date of reporting. Naturally, the local and national news focuses on date of reporting numbers. Just changing a single filter on the DPH page tells two entirely different stories about what's actually happening in this state.

Multiply that story by 50 and you have the recipe for a terribly misleading picture.
Posted by Tallyman
Member since Jul 2020
20 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:20 pm to
FL DOH said their 4,000-case data dump dated back to June 26, so not sure how much effect it will have on the 7-day ave.
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1217 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 2:25 pm to
Backdating cases over 1.5 months old. Sigh, and they wonder why people complain about the quality of the data we're making life changing decisions with.
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:06 pm to
COVID Tracking Project just tweeted this;

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1293684375423340544



North Carolina removed 220K tests from their totals today.
This post was edited on 8/12/20 at 6:27 pm
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8141 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:21 pm to
Very interesting MIT article on herd immunity:

LINK
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1217 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:21 pm to
Spikes the positivity percentage for today through the roof too. About 12.5% nationally, simply due to a data quirk. FFS. Two separate data BS items today and you are up on cases WOW and way up on positivity WOW.
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:24 pm to
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:26 pm to
Given the implications of the decisions made based on the data being reported, poor data reporting is approaching criminal levels IMHO.

No one will ever hold these public health officials responsible for this.
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
11680 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 6:58 pm to
Recently raised all kind of hellfire with our County Judge and Public Health District for refusing to comply with CDC's quarantine release protocols. Talk about unfounded house arrest.
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1217 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 7:49 pm to
I'm with you Chrome. If we've fallen down anywhere in this response, it's in data reporting consistency. Private industry would be out of business if we managed and reported data like this. And that awful reporting isfeeding the monster known as the media.
Posted by BamaPig
Gulf Coast,Alabama
Member since Jan 2020
1314 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

With all the data frickery going on


It'll all end in November

Posted by gatorsimz
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
8135 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 6:26 am to
quote:

And that awful reporting isfeeding the monster known as the media.


Ain’t that the truth. CNBC is running this headline this morning:

“Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases”

It’s amazing they can put these articles out with a straight face. Let’s ignore the rise in cases due to increased testing but once we decrease in cases, we’ll say it’s skewed/flawed data.

Posted by Crimsonians
Member since Nov 2019
1596 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 11:48 am to
Florida numbers back to normal. Looking good.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119146 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 12:32 pm to
Can you remove the linear trend lines from the "Growth rate of Cases vs. Deaths" chart? The linear trend line tells us very little. With that said a poly trend curve will be a closer fit. You just have to experiment with the order. The higher the order the closer the fit. Excel only goes up to polynomials up to a degree of 6.

I wish excel would curve fit with trig functions for data sets like this.
This post was edited on 8/13/20 at 12:34 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 4:10 pm to
Done...
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1217 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 5:42 pm to
Looks like we returned to the trend today after the data disaster that was yesterday. Tests up over 150k over last week, cases and even deaths down over last week, 5.9% positivity.
This post was edited on 8/13/20 at 5:43 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 8/13/20 at 7:32 pm to
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases
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