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re: Am I the only one who thinks the market's reaction to the coronavirus outbreak is...
Posted on 1/30/20 at 7:14 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 1/30/20 at 7:14 pm to LSURussian
of course it's overblown. The coronavirus is a glorified cold virus.
1
Posted on 1/31/20 at 5:34 am to LSURussian
Just like Ebola I’ve made money on LAKE. Every news story that comes out it jumps 3-4 percent
Posted on 1/31/20 at 6:14 am to Golfer
quote:
I think the market reaction is due to the largest middle class population in the world under a quarantine...during their busiest spending period of the year.
This.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 6:19 am to arcalades
Market bounced off the overnight futures dip. Once again showing remarkable strength that it displayed during the Iran showdown.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 6:50 am to southernelite
Agree knee jerk reaction to something that most likely won’t be an issue by June. I’m happy with it though, easy buying opportunity.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:08 am to TigerinOkieHell
quote:
Agree knee jerk reaction to something that most likely won’t be an issue by June. I’m happy with it though, easy buying opportunity.
A buying opportunity not seen since three weeks ago. We are still positive on the year.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:15 am to lsu13lsu
quote:I bought some more JPM this morning.
A buying opportunity not seen since three weeks ago.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:43 am to GenesChin
Doesn’t materially impact the long term valuation of the market, IMO.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:04 am to lynxcat
More Americans have died from vaping than from the new coronavirus...
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:00 pm to LSURussian
The Fed is using the virus news as an excuse to pull back their cash floats and stop their "Not QE". The market reaction you are seeing is a result of that.
Track the Fed's repo holdings and you will see the whole story. They have been steadily increasing since late summer/early fall and then they started a pull back a couple of weeks ago.
Track the Fed's repo holdings and you will see the whole story. They have been steadily increasing since late summer/early fall and then they started a pull back a couple of weeks ago.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 1:43 pm to BamaAlum02
quote:Overnight Fed funds rates are virtually unchanged over the last month and well within the Fed's 1.50 - 1.75% target range.
The Fed is using the virus news as an excuse to pull back their cash floats and stop their "Not QE". The market reaction you are seeing is a result of that.
Track the Fed's repo holdings and you will see the whole story. They have been steadily increasing since late summer/early fall and then they started a pull back a couple of weeks ago.
What you said may be true about the Fed decreasing its overnight repo balances but it appears that rates have not changed to reflect any drastic change.
That tells me the Fed is continuing to do its job to keep overnight rates within their policy range even if it is now requiring less repo volume rather than reacting to flu virus news.
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 1/31/20 at 1:53 pm to LSURussian
I think it's really overblown right now. Thinking about increasing my position in a few stocks.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 2:07 pm to LSURussian
quote:It may be. You're far more expert on "black swans" or appropriate market response, than I.
Am I the only one who thinks the market's reaction to the coronavirus outbreak is...
...way overdone?
But I can address the medical end. This corona virus saga is medically unique.
(1) It is a new strain.
(2) China has been unusually dishonest and secretive about the episode.
(3) Given 1 & 2, both epidemiology and virulence are very poorly understood.
In fact, I've not seen the CDC/NIH this poorly informed or confused about a CAI in a long time. We're finally catching up. Based on our understanding now, I don't expect the thing to be contained to China. Odds are significant it gets widespread. In the end, I'd guess virulence and spread to approximate Flu. . . . i.e., ~500,000 deaths worldwide.
How would that translate in market response terms?
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 1/31/20 at 2:35 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:You know I respect you and your informational posts so I probably don't fully comprehend what you're saying.
I'd guess virulence and spread to approximate Flu. . . . i.e., ~500,000 deaths worldwide.
Everything I read, such as in this article LINK published today seems to say the coronavirus is much less deadly than the everyday influenza that the world faces every year.
quote:I have a close relative who works at a large Baton Rouge hospital and she tells me her hospital is doing nothing special for preparing for the corona virus flu. They are at full-go for the annual influenza outbreak but the new coronavirus is not getting any special attention.
Sheridan Memorial Hospital’s chief medical officer Dr. John Addlesperger, shares the same view that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu [Sheridian Memorial] noting that influenza killed 35,000 people in the U.S. last year.
An emergency physician with the Hospital Corporation of America, Dr. Cole Sondrup, stated that the Wuhan coronavirus will be less fatal than the flu: My guess is when the season is over coronavirus will have killed far fewer people than influenza.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 2:35 pm to LSURussian
My initial impression was not big deal but the travel restrictions probably won't help.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 3:06 pm to LSURussian
This shite is so dumb. Dow down 600 pts today over a story the media keeps trying to spin as "we're all gonna die." frick the media for trying to create hysteria over this.
And yes, all of my options are going to expire worthless bc of this.
And yes, all of my options are going to expire worthless bc of this.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 3:51 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Overnight Fed funds rates are virtually unchanged over the last month and well within the Fed's 1.50 - 1.75% target range.
Didn't say anything about the rates, just that they are trying to pull back their positions and it has an effect on markets.
quote:
What you said may be true about the Fed decreasing its overnight repo balances but it appears that rates have not changed to reflect any drastic change.
Looks kinda drastic to me.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 4:03 pm to BamaAlum02
quote:
it appears that rates have not changed to reflect any drastic change.
quote:The graph you posted does not depict rates, only repo agreement volume.
Looks kinda drastic to me.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 4:23 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The graph you posted does not depict rates, only repo agreement volume.
Agree. I've never once mentioned rates.
I thought when you said there was no drastic change you were referring to Fed volume. Misunderstood your point.
Stand by my belief that the Fed has gotten themselves in a pickle and they are looking for an out. As they pull back it is going to cause a downturn. The current decreases in markets are a result of the Fed and has nothing to do with a virus.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 4:28 pm to BamaAlum02
quote:
and has nothing to do with a virus
Come on. Admit that it has to have a little effect at least.
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