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Posted on 5/23/20 at 11:18 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
It’s way too early to tell. Like 50% of these deaths are older than the average life expectancy. Were they just moved up in the “death timeline” by 6 months? We may see a lower than expected death number of the next 6 months.
I was also beginning to wonder if some of these numbers are this high because 2018-2019 was a somewhat light flu season. Flu didn’t get them last year, so this got them this year.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:35 am to tiger91
tiger91, please check the owlie thread at the top of the OT, approx page 46, whereby rouge is asking for higher quality food options for owlie while he is in a rehab facility (sounds like a SNF). Thanks!
Posted on 5/24/20 at 9:02 am to GOP_Tiger
Get this: a new study by an anti-smoking group actually found that smokers in their study in the UK were 36% less likely to become infected.
[Edit: here's the link]
You have to hunt and then calculate to find that, because of course the main emphasis of their paper is that they found that the smokers who did test positive had more symptoms, yada yada yada.
Again, folks, if some people are much more likely to be infected than others, then the threshold for herd immunity drops dramatically and the virus gets very easy to control with the immunity that we already have built up in the system. We've talked about it before, but here's the paper for those of you who haven't seen it.
If this theory is right, then we can continue to open things up and still effectively get rid of COVID-19 this summer.
[Edit: here's the link]
You have to hunt and then calculate to find that, because of course the main emphasis of their paper is that they found that the smokers who did test positive had more symptoms, yada yada yada.
Again, folks, if some people are much more likely to be infected than others, then the threshold for herd immunity drops dramatically and the virus gets very easy to control with the immunity that we already have built up in the system. We've talked about it before, but here's the paper for those of you who haven't seen it.
If this theory is right, then we can continue to open things up and still effectively get rid of COVID-19 this summer.
This post was edited on 5/24/20 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 5/24/20 at 11:30 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
A new study out of Brazil today comparing spread in different cities says that for places where the average temperature was under 78 degrees F, each degree F that temperature increased resulted in a 2.7% decrease in spread.
There is a mounting body of evidence that the virus doesn't really spread outside or in indoor areas that people typically have a short residence time (grocery store, home improvement store, etc). The spread is clustered around office buildings, restaurants, churches, etc. and then those infections result in near saturation in the homes of the infected. There is obviously a seasonality component to the spread of this but I wonder how much the data is being skewed by the various mitigation efforts that have been deployed around the world? We'll find out in a few short months.
I'm in the "there will be a 2nd wave" boat but I feel like most areas have demonstrated the ability to handle the 1st wave. I guess the only wildcard is what does this look like when stacked on top of flu season? Hopefully, the lessons learned from this first wave will result in a commonsense approach to dealing with this and not an emotional overreaction that snaps us back to the excessive mitigation efforts that we have seen over the past few months.
Also, there are a number of wildcards out there that we still don't know enough about. What is the true level of exposure needed for herd immunity? What role does exposure to the other endemic coronaviruses play in the spread? What about schools? Those factors will play a role in what this looks like the Fall.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
The spread is clustered around office buildings, restaurants, churches, etc. and then those infections result in near saturation in the homes of the infected
Have they figured out yet if UV light kills the virus? I've heard conflicting reports.
If it does there's a specific range of UV light (210 to 225 nanos) that kills pathogens but can't penetrate the epidermis. Incorporate that into overhead lights and you don't have to worry about office buildings.
Mass typically lasts about an hour which isn't much more than a trip to Walmart.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:06 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Incorporate that into overhead lights and you don't have to worry about office buildings.
But you would have to worry about a serious sun burn
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:08 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
But you would have to worry about a serious sun burn
That's why you use the 210-225 nano range.
225+ would cause sunburns and skin cancer. 210-225 is harmless.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:20 pm to rds dc
quote:
I guess the only wildcard is what does this look like when stacked on top of flu season?
According to the CDC, this year’s flu season, especially flu A, peaked in February. Flu was still pretty active throughout March. CoviD will likely have peaked most areas in the USA in mid-April.
This already coincided with flu season.
This post was edited on 5/24/20 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 5/24/20 at 12:43 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
That's why you use the 210-225 nano range. 225+ would cause sunburns and skin cancer. 210-225 is harmless.
I would need to see the research. UV light works by breaking the DNA, well in this case the RNA but same principle. You would have to explain to me how it’s going to destroy the viral RNA of virus particles in the air without causing any damage to your DNA or eyes while sitting under it 8+ hours a day.
I’m guessing it’s a gimmick that doesn’t work or is dangerous.
This post was edited on 5/24/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 5/24/20 at 1:26 pm to WaWaWeeWa
There's been a lot of work done with far-UVC. I read up on a lot of it back when President Trump talked about getting UV light into the body and some people claimed that he was talking about a device inserted into the trachea that emitted UV.
Columbia University explains their research here.
And this news article covers a lot of ground as well.
Columbia University explains their research here.
And this news article covers a lot of ground as well.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 1:31 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I would need to see the research. UV light works by breaking the DNA, well in this case the RNA but same principle. You would have to explain to me how it’s going to destroy the viral RNA of virus particles in the air without causing any damage to your DNA or eyes while sitting under it 8+ hours a day.
I’m guessing it’s a gimmick that doesn’t work or is dangerous.
Saw an article about it a while back. I'll have to try to find it.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 1:32 pm to rds dc
quote:
I guess the only wildcard is what does this look like when stacked on top of flu season?
We unquestionably need a very strong push for everyone to get the flu vaccine this year. The flu creates "noise" that makes it difficult to fight COVID-19. We undoubtedly "wasted" tens of thousands of tests on people who just had the flu.
And I saw something somewhere that indicated that a fair amount of our early COVID-19 mortality was from people who were co-infected with both COVID-19 and the flu.
The good news is that we can prevent those problems from happening in a potential 2nd wave just by making sure that enough people get the flu vaccine.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 1:47 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Not the article I saw but here's a PDF
LINK
Apparently the shorter wavelengths can't penetrate far enough into mammals to cause harm, but pathogens are small enough for the UV to destroy.
LINK
Apparently the shorter wavelengths can't penetrate far enough into mammals to cause harm, but pathogens are small enough for the UV to destroy.
Posted on 5/24/20 at 4:22 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
Posted on 5/25/20 at 8:56 am to GOP_Tiger
A banking study comparing consumer spending in Denmark (which shut everything down early) to Sweden (which only had mild restrictions) shows that the arrival of the virus dropped spending 25% in Sweden and 29% in Denmark.
There are so many people who have argued viciously that "the government shut down the economy." It wasn't true in Europe and it wasn't true here either. The freaking virus shut down the economy.
The countries that shut down the fastest are going to end up being the ones with the least economic damage, because they will be the ones who recover and reopen fastest.
LINK
There are so many people who have argued viciously that "the government shut down the economy." It wasn't true in Europe and it wasn't true here either. The freaking virus shut down the economy.
The countries that shut down the fastest are going to end up being the ones with the least economic damage, because they will be the ones who recover and reopen fastest.
LINK
Posted on 5/25/20 at 10:22 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The freaking virus shut down the economy.
Yep. I tried to say this months ago. The idea that we could have just continued on as if nothing was happening was a ridiculous idea. People aren’t stupid, if the hospitals are filling up and people are dying that alters behavior. Not to mention a large portion of the country is considered high risk from either age or comorbidities.
Posted on 5/25/20 at 10:30 am to WaWaWeeWa
I understand that, but as we all know, Lowes and Home Depot sure didn't show a reduction in customers.
Posted on 5/25/20 at 10:36 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
People aren’t stupid, if the hospitals are filling up and people are dying that alters behavior
Not argumentative, but how many people witnessed any of this?
What about government agencies and quasi government agencies throwing out 3% death rates?
I imagine 90% of the population was going off what they were being told and it was doomsday.
Of course economic activity slowed down, people weren't given well thought out and reasoned information to act upon. Though folks may have freaked regardless, but we won't know that now.
This post was edited on 5/25/20 at 10:42 am
Posted on 5/25/20 at 10:42 am to GOP_Tiger
Is this a new talking point; mandatory closures and stay at home orders didn't actually hurt the economy? I'll have to 100% disagree with that theory, some statistics from Sweden and Denmark notwithstanding. When the govt forces millions of businesses to close their doors and lay off all their employees, and issues stay at home orders for all except essential activities (with law enforcement standing by to punish violators), the impact of that goes far beyond what would have otherwise occurred with this particular virus outbreak. Throw in constant fearmongering in the mainstream media and an already overleveraged financial system and you get a crash.
Pandemics are not that uncommon and they can have an economic impact, but that normally depends on the virulence of the disease which in turn affects the level of fear in the general population. Covid-19 poses low risk in the large majority of cases, is predominantly a threat to the elderly and a significant chunk of overall mortality is occuring in elder living facilities. Not the sort of thing that has historically caused great economic disruption, because people are resilient and pragmatic about continuing their lives and earning their upkeep in the face of uncertainty. There would have been fear, but it would've been quickly replaced by business as usual when people realized that there was no mass die-off happening.
This time the govt response and media have magnified and accelerated the toll. So instead of a mild recession, the economic impact of this one will reverberate for a long time as many of these small businesses never return. Disruptions in delivery of even govt related services like healthcare and education will have a long lasting impact on our future health and prosperity. Central banks will end up monetizing tens of trillions dollars equivalent of debt, destroying whatever vestige of free market price signals remained from their previous distortions. The economic impact from all of that will eventually make the actual Covid-19 disease a footnoted prelude to something much worse.
Pandemics are not that uncommon and they can have an economic impact, but that normally depends on the virulence of the disease which in turn affects the level of fear in the general population. Covid-19 poses low risk in the large majority of cases, is predominantly a threat to the elderly and a significant chunk of overall mortality is occuring in elder living facilities. Not the sort of thing that has historically caused great economic disruption, because people are resilient and pragmatic about continuing their lives and earning their upkeep in the face of uncertainty. There would have been fear, but it would've been quickly replaced by business as usual when people realized that there was no mass die-off happening.
This time the govt response and media have magnified and accelerated the toll. So instead of a mild recession, the economic impact of this one will reverberate for a long time as many of these small businesses never return. Disruptions in delivery of even govt related services like healthcare and education will have a long lasting impact on our future health and prosperity. Central banks will end up monetizing tens of trillions dollars equivalent of debt, destroying whatever vestige of free market price signals remained from their previous distortions. The economic impact from all of that will eventually make the actual Covid-19 disease a footnoted prelude to something much worse.
This post was edited on 5/25/20 at 12:13 pm
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