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What does the line + betting trends tell us?
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:49 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:49 am
Seems like the line opened and is still lower than would have expected. Isn’t that a bit concerning? How is the sharp money looking?
13
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:50 am to Draconian Sanctions
You are worried that on a neutral field lsu would likely be a 9-10 pt favorite over #4? Damn
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:52 am to Draconian Sanctions
You seem to be a little scared judging by your last few threads? Relax, Joe got this! The big games is where he shines
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:52 am to Draconian Sanctions
Stay away.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:59 am to Draconian Sanctions
nobody trusts our defense
thats it
thats it
Posted on 12/5/19 at 8:13 am to Draconian Sanctions
Man you sure are nervous.
We are playing a very good team on defense. They could beat us.
This isn't Ohio State playing cream puffs like Michigan, Penn State or Wisconsin.
But, the Tigers are dialed in and on a mission. We will win and cover the spread.
We are playing a very good team on defense. They could beat us.
This isn't Ohio State playing cream puffs like Michigan, Penn State or Wisconsin.
But, the Tigers are dialed in and on a mission. We will win and cover the spread.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 8:15 am to Draconian Sanctions
UGA is probably the right side at -7.
The -4 made absolutely no sense to me. Seems like Vegas was leaning heavy on the power ratings that mostly have the game around 3.5. I wish I could have gotten the -4 even though I hardly bet LSU.
If I have to hear to term “opponents adjusted” one more time, I am lose it. UGA is getting created for mizzou being better when kelly Bryant played in other weeks.
The -4 made absolutely no sense to me. Seems like Vegas was leaning heavy on the power ratings that mostly have the game around 3.5. I wish I could have gotten the -4 even though I hardly bet LSU.
If I have to hear to term “opponents adjusted” one more time, I am lose it. UGA is getting created for mizzou being better when kelly Bryant played in other weeks.
This post was edited on 12/5/19 at 8:18 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 8:30 am to Draconian Sanctions
Though they have their weaknesses, UGA is probably the most balanced team LSU will have played this year. The offense is nowhere near as explosive as Alabama, but they have a very experienced QB, a VERY talented RB and a great OL. LSU's defense has had it's moments (and certainly is capable of a big game), but the total body of work tells us this isn't one of the best LSU defenses in recent years
On the other side UGA is a really good defense. Most think they are at least on par with, if not better than Auburn, who held LSU to its lowest point total this season. The logic, I'm sure is that UGA similar to AU, only with a much better QB (who has played well in this game twice before) and RB. Throw in the fact that it is being played at a slightly less than "neutral" site, and the "low" line has some logic.
To me, the wildcard is LSU's defense. Have they turned a corner since the Ole Miss game? Or was their performance more a part of playing against relatively weak offensive lines at home? The talent level is there (at least 4 future 1st round picks) for big performance. Will they deliver one?
On the other side UGA is a really good defense. Most think they are at least on par with, if not better than Auburn, who held LSU to its lowest point total this season. The logic, I'm sure is that UGA similar to AU, only with a much better QB (who has played well in this game twice before) and RB. Throw in the fact that it is being played at a slightly less than "neutral" site, and the "low" line has some logic.
To me, the wildcard is LSU's defense. Have they turned a corner since the Ole Miss game? Or was their performance more a part of playing against relatively weak offensive lines at home? The talent level is there (at least 4 future 1st round picks) for big performance. Will they deliver one?
Posted on 12/5/19 at 8:42 am to Draconian Sanctions
I am confident we win by at least 10.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:18 am to Draconian Sanctions
Tons of money came in on LSU.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:19 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Seems like the line opened and is still lower than would have expected. Isn’t that a bit concerning? How is the sharp money looking?
They have a tremendous defense. That's the reason the line is as close as it is. We would be favored by 10.5 at home.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:48 am to Draconian Sanctions
Stay away is what my answer to the question above is, just mine. I was just answering your question which is what I thought you wanted from anyone that responded.Theres only 3 choices right?
LSu may wipe the floor with them for all I know.
We've had LSU and the over all year, but we arent betting either this weekend.
The opening line surprised us and all the money pouring in on LSU has us on the sideline for this one.Vegas rarely takes a bath, but this LSU team could do it to them.
Time will tell.
LSu may wipe the floor with them for all I know.
We've had LSU and the over all year, but we arent betting either this weekend.
The opening line surprised us and all the money pouring in on LSU has us on the sideline for this one.Vegas rarely takes a bath, but this LSU team could do it to them.
Time will tell.
This post was edited on 12/5/19 at 10:02 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:58 am to Draconian Sanctions
I'll take a stab at it.
GA and A&M p;ayed recently in a one score game that could have gone either way.
LSU has played their best opponents to a 2 score lead late, with the opponent scoring in the last minute plus to make it a one score game.
We were a 2 plus score favorite (16-17) over A&M, but were at home. So, minus the home for us and give it to GA. That's 10-11, but not a true home for GA, so let's say 11-12.
I think Vegas is saying GA is that team that will score late to make it a one score game, so make it 4-5. The line moving to 7 comes from the fact that GA has everything on the line to remain in the playoff, whereas LSU could likely lose and still remain.
Personally, GA hasn't seen a spread with these athletic skills. They will be challenged to provide pressure and cover at the same time. I think AU's DL was better at getting to Burrow than GA will be, and we had 500 yards vs AU. Unless we have to settle for FGs and turn the ball over, there's a good chance we can score more on GA than their offense, without some key guys and others playing not at 100%, can on ours.
GA and A&M p;ayed recently in a one score game that could have gone either way.
LSU has played their best opponents to a 2 score lead late, with the opponent scoring in the last minute plus to make it a one score game.
We were a 2 plus score favorite (16-17) over A&M, but were at home. So, minus the home for us and give it to GA. That's 10-11, but not a true home for GA, so let's say 11-12.
I think Vegas is saying GA is that team that will score late to make it a one score game, so make it 4-5. The line moving to 7 comes from the fact that GA has everything on the line to remain in the playoff, whereas LSU could likely lose and still remain.
Personally, GA hasn't seen a spread with these athletic skills. They will be challenged to provide pressure and cover at the same time. I think AU's DL was better at getting to Burrow than GA will be, and we had 500 yards vs AU. Unless we have to settle for FGs and turn the ball over, there's a good chance we can score more on GA than their offense, without some key guys and others playing not at 100%, can on ours.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 10:18 am to Draconian Sanctions
Tigers 31-24. O/U is 55 points and 7point spread. Line can change for injuries or a lopsided amount of betting on one team.
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