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Started By
Message
re: I just don't think Eddie can keep JBE from that extra 4%
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:31 pm to OleWarSkuleAlum
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:31 pm to OleWarSkuleAlum
quote:
JBE is a strong choice.
idiot
quote:
Pro-life, Pro-2A
does not over ride his damage to economy. see my post above.
frick HIM
quote:
He corrected all of Jindal’s wrongs!
you are too stupid to converse with
0
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:32 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
1) abusing immigrants, illegal or not, is what is wrong, and being against immigration for people running from danger is wrong, (2) flying ours and neighbors flags should be no problem - you don't have to pick one or the other and also, no one is taking down american flags for others - except for perhaps the president for a russian one - and (3) protests are not riots (4) blind adherence to someone because they are "the president" is dangerous. There is evidence that individual is working on behalf of other nations - even the pentagon is extremely alarmed. not exactly a bastion of liberal protesters there in the pentagon. Think for a moment that you may be unduly influenced by people who want to do wrong.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:40 pm to BeepNode
quote:He doesn't have to get any of Abraham's votes. He just needs 20% of them to stay home.
JBE would have to get 15% of Abraham's votes
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:47 pm to BeepNode
quote:if I read the math right, another way to have Rispone lose, is to have 30% of Abraham's voters just decline to vote altogether.
JBE would have to get 15% of Abraham's votes. I don't see that happening.
If you think that's a high number, then consider it this way- Rispone has to convince over 7 out of every 10 Abraham voters to come out and vote again, and this time vote for him.
How many Abraham voters were in it because "he's their guy" from North La, and could give a rat's arse about R vs D? Like a couple other people have pointed out, JBE panders to get the black vote, but he's Pro Life and Pro 2nd Amendment. He's a crooked good ol boy, not a modern SJW like you see out of Cali.
You only need 3 out of 10 guys to see Rispone as another crook that caters more to the South La crowd, and that ambushed "their" guy's chances, and stay at home next time.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:48 pm to blueboy
Turn out is everything in the runoff. Republicans did so well across the board, I'd be slightly more surprised if Rispone doesn't pull it off.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:50 pm to NaturalBeam
quote:
He doesn't have to get any of Abraham's votes. He just needs 20% of them to stay home.
True, but that's a significant number. I think most people that voted for Abraham didn't feel strongly about it one way or another. They just wanted a Republican. Republican voters are generally more consistent in terms of voter turn-out.
The 2015 election was an anomaly because Vitter didn't get the majority of Republican votes in the primary, and then enough people refused to vote for him based on morality reason, or because they thought he would bring shame to us.
You don't have that dynamic this time around.
My prediction is 52-48, Rispone.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:53 pm to Scoob
That’s if every single JBE voter goes out and votes for him, too. You can talk yourself in and out of these stars all day. It will be a close race regardless.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 9:57 pm to Scoob
You’re not totally wrong here. I talked to my Mom in North Louisiana tonight and she is pissed at “that hateful Rispone” for lying about a good Christian man like Dr. Abraham. According to her, he looks like “a shifty crook”. She never misses a vote and at least I don’t think she’ll vote for JBE. She has a month to calm down.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 10:16 pm to BigJim
quote:
The next election will be a lower turnout one.
I keep seeing people post this but in the last 5 Governor races that went to runoff the voter turnout increased an average of 5%, and in none of the last 5 did the voter turnout go down.
Can you explain why you think it will be different?
Posted on 10/13/19 at 10:18 pm to The Rodfather
quote:
Can you explain why you think it will be different?
I prefer "Incumbent hasn't won when facing a runoff" stats.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 10:23 pm to blueboy
Eddie Rispone is the single, weirdest Republican candidate for governor I’ve ever seen. The incumbent is no day at the beach either, but he’s in the party where 40 % of the registered voters will vote 95% Democrat.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 10:26 pm to blueboy
here's the deal. If the R's vote for their ticket it's a done deal. They could had voted for Honor Code Saturday but they didn't. Libs are very good at rallying around their ilk even if it's not the candidate of choice. I personally didn't near the gap between Eddie and Abe as I do both vs gubna Roberto Boucher.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 11:14 pm to Scoob
quote:
You only need 3 out of 10 guys to see Rispone as another crook that caters more to the South La crowd, and that ambushed "their" guy's chances, and stay at home next time.
Looks like he best get busy and he best mean it. Aint nothing in front of him but air and opportunity.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 11:19 pm to The Boat
Only 38% turnout in Orleans and Caddo parishes. 45%+ in rispone areas. If that 38% moves up a mere 3 points, Edwards wins.
Posted on 10/13/19 at 11:20 pm to blueboy
quote:
and Eddie is perhaps even less photogenic than google-eyed Edwards.
So this is honestly an issue for you?
Posted on 10/13/19 at 11:22 pm to blueboy
I hope you are wrong too, but I think you are right. If JBE got less than 45% Rispone might have had a chance, but at 47% I don't see how he doesn't get re-elected.
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