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ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts 9-3 Regular Season for LSU
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:12 pm
LSU Tigers FPI - 2019 Prediction
vs. GASO . . . 96.7% . . . 0.967
at TEX . . . . . .74.4% . . . 0.744
vs. NWST . . . 99.8% . . . 0.998
at VAN . . . . . .84.0% . . . 0.840
vs. USU . . . . .97.9% . . . 0.979
vs. FLA . . . . . 70.3% . . . 0.703
at MSST. . . . . 65.3% . . . 0.653
vs. AUB . . . . . 71.8% . . . 0.718
at ALA . . . . . . 25.2% . . . 0.252
at MISS . . . . . 82.7% . . . 0.827
vs. ARK . . . . . 94.2% . . . 0.942
vs. TA&M . . . . 73.4% . . . 0.734
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.357
9-3 Regular Season
LSU Tigers FPI - 2019
vs. GASO . . . 96.7% . . . 0.967
at TEX . . . . . .74.4% . . . 0.744
vs. NWST . . . 99.8% . . . 0.998
at VAN . . . . . .84.0% . . . 0.840
vs. USU . . . . .97.9% . . . 0.979
vs. FLA . . . . . 70.3% . . . 0.703
at MSST. . . . . 65.3% . . . 0.653
vs. AUB . . . . . 71.8% . . . 0.718
at ALA . . . . . . 25.2% . . . 0.252
at MISS . . . . . 82.7% . . . 0.827
vs. ARK . . . . . 94.2% . . . 0.942
vs. TA&M . . . . 73.4% . . . 0.734
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.357
9-3 Regular Season
LSU Tigers FPI - 2019
20
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:13 pm to Salviati
9-3 should lead to heads rolling.
Sick of this shite. We have an experienced QB coming back with talent all over the field and a nasty defense.
Sick of this shite. We have an experienced QB coming back with talent all over the field and a nasty defense.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:14 pm to Salviati
Just attempt to look before posting.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:15 pm to Salviati
That would be an 11-1 record right there.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:16 pm to Salviati
Texas is ranked 24, Miss St. 16?
At state is our 2nd hardest game?
Wut?
At state is our 2nd hardest game?
Wut?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:16 pm to Salviati
How do you get a projection of 9-3 when LSU is favored in every game except one? Am I missing something?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:17 pm to Salviati
quote:
9-3 Regular Season
People's lack of understanding of statistics is getting a bit old.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:19 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
The FPI projection is 9.5 wins 2.8 losses, which dum dum rounded down to strengthen his agenda. It takes into account chance of winning and chance of losing and averages it out over the year.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:19 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
9-3 should lead to heads rolling.
Nah
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:21 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
9-3 should lead to heads rolling.
Notwithstanding OP’s possible misinterpretation of these stats I agree 9-3 SHOULD lead to heads rolling. I just don’t know that it would.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:25 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Sick of this shite. We have an experienced QB coming back with talent all over the field and a nasty defense.
Since the season is still 2 months away I’m not sure what you are sick of. Pre season predictions?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:33 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
9-3 should lead to heads rolling.
Nah
There are not 3 acceptable losses on this schedule.
He'd be in hot water with 3 losses.
Assuming Bama and Texas are the two he's either
1. Responsible for the first home loss to Auburn in forever
2. Getting schooled by Mullen once again
3. Losing in back-to-back visits at MSU
4. Losing again to Jimbo
The other possible losses are just inconceivable.
This post was edited on 7/8/19 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:34 pm to Salviati
quote:
Salviati
You dumb
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:34 pm to Goldrush25
Agreed.... but things like this happen in the SEC.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:35 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
9-3 should lead to heads rolling
All L's aren't created equal.
Do the three come from getting punished by Bama and getting beat by two other teams you shouldn't have?
Or does Burrow go down for a good bit of the season and LSU drops 3 toughly contensted games, but looks good with a healthy QB?
In scenario one, then there are some major issues. In scenario two, there is some unfortunate luck.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:38 pm to Salviati
quote:
at MSST. . . . . 65.3% . . . 0.653
I know that State whipped our arse two years ago, but there are MAJOR questions about that team this season. No way that's our second hardest game.
These are the only four that really concern me:
1) @ Bama
2) @ UT
3) Florida
4) A&M
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:49 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
How do you get a projection of 9-3 when LSU is favored in every game except one? Am I missing something?
Yes. An understanding of the concept of expected value.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:51 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Am I missing something?
Most posters are. The expected value of our win total is what Salviati calculated, which incorporates the difference in information between a 99% chance of winning and a 51% chance of winning. It tends to fool people in this context, but I think most people understand that having a 51% chance to win each of 12 games does not mean that 12-0 is the most likely record. We would have a 49% chance of losing each of those games, which is substantial.
Looking at our FPI projection and translating it to an 11-1 projected record is losing the fractional differences that make this tool more information-rich than a blogger slapping a binary prediction (W/L) next to each game on our schedule.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:56 pm to TheTexasTiger7
quote:
That would be an 11-1 record right there.
No, it isn't. Try it out; it's an easy experiment. Get three playing cards - two Aces and one King. Place them face down and draw one. Let's say an Ace = a win and a King = a loss. Draw one 12 times mixing them up after each draw. According to you that would lead to a 12-0 season. Try it, and see if you go 12-0.
To elaborate, it would obviously lead to a 8-4 season in all probability.
This post was edited on 7/8/19 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 1:57 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:It's pretty simple. Add the percentages.
How do you get a projection of 9-3 when LSU is favored in every game except one? Am I missing something?
Just because LSU is favored to win all but one game does not mean that winning all but one is the statistically probable result.
For example, if LSU had an 70% chance to win 5 games and a 90% chance to win 5 games, it is statistically more likely to win 8 games than all 10 games even though it is favored in all 10 games.
.7 + .7 + .7 + .7 + .7 + .9 + .9 + .9 + .9 +.9 = 8
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