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Hypothetical: Trump Wins ln 2020; How Many SCOTUS Selections Will He Get?
Posted on 1/14/19 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 1/14/19 at 10:41 pm
I would appreciate any and all input. Here's my analysis, which I will break down into 3 categories:
1) Old and/or Ill Health
A) Ruth Bader Ginsburg (Age 85 Years 10 Months) - Even the most ardent Democrat knows that President Trump will have the opportunity to choose RBG's successor. Enough said.
B) Stephen Breyer (Age 80 Years 5 Months) - Being a liberal, my guess is that Breyer will not voluntarily step down while Trump is President. But, let's say that the GOP retain the Senate and Trump's last year to successfully get a nominee confirmed is 2024. Breyer will be 85-86 years old in 2024. Will his health hold up that long?
C) Sonia Sotomayor (Age 64 Years 6 Months) - As SCOTUS Justices go, Sotomayor is not that old. However she is a Type 1 diabetic. I don't have a medical background, but this woman does not look well to me. She's gained considerable weight, and looks to me to be in failing health.
2) Fairly Old/Republican
A) Clarence Thomas (Age 70 Years 6 Months) - Odds are that Thomas could probably make it past Trump's tenure in office. But, does he want to do that? For one thing, there have been rumors that he wants to retire fairly soon. For another thing, does Thomas really want to keep going past 2024 and risk making the same mistake that RBG has made?
B) Samuel Alito (Age 68 Years 9 Months) - Much like Clarence Thomas, would Alito want to step down while there is a Republican in the White House? Unlike Thomas, I never see or hear any rumors about Alito.
C) John Roberts (Age 63 Years 11 Months) - I'll include Roberts here, although I personally don't think he has any allegiance to President Trump. I think Roberts is a wildcard, because imo he seems to have been compromised. I have less of a read on him than any of the others.
3) Almost Certainly Staying Past Trump's Tenure
A) Elana Kagan
B) Neil Gorsuch
C) Brett "The Hit Man" Kavanaugh
All 3 of these Justices are under 60. Two are Trump appointees, and Kagan certainly will not want to voluntarily allow Trump to choose her successor.
So, how many more picks does President Trump get assuming that he wins reelection in 2020? My best guess is that Trump will have the chance to choose the successor for 1) RBG 2) Thomas 3) Sotomayor, and 4) either Breyer or Roberts (I just have a feeling that there's some dirt on Roberts).
Added to Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, that would mean that the Supreme Court would be comprised of 6 Trump appointees by late 2024. Frankly, I think it will be a total of 5 Trump justices at the very least.
Any thoughts (and actual substantive responses are always appreciated)?
1) Old and/or Ill Health
A) Ruth Bader Ginsburg (Age 85 Years 10 Months) - Even the most ardent Democrat knows that President Trump will have the opportunity to choose RBG's successor. Enough said.
B) Stephen Breyer (Age 80 Years 5 Months) - Being a liberal, my guess is that Breyer will not voluntarily step down while Trump is President. But, let's say that the GOP retain the Senate and Trump's last year to successfully get a nominee confirmed is 2024. Breyer will be 85-86 years old in 2024. Will his health hold up that long?
C) Sonia Sotomayor (Age 64 Years 6 Months) - As SCOTUS Justices go, Sotomayor is not that old. However she is a Type 1 diabetic. I don't have a medical background, but this woman does not look well to me. She's gained considerable weight, and looks to me to be in failing health.
2) Fairly Old/Republican
A) Clarence Thomas (Age 70 Years 6 Months) - Odds are that Thomas could probably make it past Trump's tenure in office. But, does he want to do that? For one thing, there have been rumors that he wants to retire fairly soon. For another thing, does Thomas really want to keep going past 2024 and risk making the same mistake that RBG has made?
B) Samuel Alito (Age 68 Years 9 Months) - Much like Clarence Thomas, would Alito want to step down while there is a Republican in the White House? Unlike Thomas, I never see or hear any rumors about Alito.
C) John Roberts (Age 63 Years 11 Months) - I'll include Roberts here, although I personally don't think he has any allegiance to President Trump. I think Roberts is a wildcard, because imo he seems to have been compromised. I have less of a read on him than any of the others.
3) Almost Certainly Staying Past Trump's Tenure
A) Elana Kagan
B) Neil Gorsuch
C) Brett "The Hit Man" Kavanaugh
All 3 of these Justices are under 60. Two are Trump appointees, and Kagan certainly will not want to voluntarily allow Trump to choose her successor.
So, how many more picks does President Trump get assuming that he wins reelection in 2020? My best guess is that Trump will have the chance to choose the successor for 1) RBG 2) Thomas 3) Sotomayor, and 4) either Breyer or Roberts (I just have a feeling that there's some dirt on Roberts).
Added to Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, that would mean that the Supreme Court would be comprised of 6 Trump appointees by late 2024. Frankly, I think it will be a total of 5 Trump justices at the very least.
Any thoughts (and actual substantive responses are always appreciated)?
Posted on 1/14/19 at 10:53 pm to KCT
You will trigger leftist with this thread.
Posted on 1/14/19 at 11:12 pm to arcalades
I just hope RBG is out soon. Not by death but retirement. Would love to see the liberal melt. Something tells me Thomas will retire before this term is up just to guarantee that a conservative replaces his spot. After that anything is possible. Too far out to predict.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 12:02 am to KCT
Could you imagine if over half the court is Trump appointed. My god the melt would be unreal 
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:18 am to Pelican fan99
1. Clarence Thomas will be the next Justice to leave the Court.
2. DT is not getting re-elected in 2020, so it's a moot point.
2. DT is not getting re-elected in 2020, so it's a moot point.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:26 am to GeorgeWest
Keep melting. 6 more years!!
Posted on 1/15/19 at 1:34 am to shoelessjoe
I think a safe bet is at least 2 with RBG and Thomas
Posted on 1/15/19 at 2:13 am to KCT
I wouldn't be surprised of Thomas retires after this term. He's already made it clear he doesn't want to end up like Scalia and die on the bench. He's almost served 30 years
Posted on 1/15/19 at 6:37 am to KCT
Without RE-election one more. With re-election he will get that one plus one or two more.
It will definitely be the Trump court for a long time.
It will definitely be the Trump court for a long time.
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:44 am to Pelican fan99
quote:
Could you imagine if over half the court is Trump appointed. My god the melt would be unrea
Well, warm up the microwave because that will absolutely happen. If nothing else, the pace President Trump is already on suggests it will become a reality. He's already placed 2 people on the Supreme Court in his first 2 years.
But not only that, RBG will not even make it thru Trump's 1st term. God bless her, but we all know she's a "breaking news" story that could happen any day now. I also believe that Clarence Thomas will step down in 2020 (if not earlier) in order to ensure that Trump gets to choose his successor. Thomas will not make the same mistake that RBG made.
That will be 4 Supreme Court selections in President Trump's 1st term. Anybody think there won't be at least one more in Trump's 2nd term? If so, I have some nice oceanfront property in Bunkie, Louisiana that's for sell at a great price.
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