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Started By
Message
re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread
Posted on 1/14/19 at 8:18 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 1/14/19 at 8:18 pm to bayoubengals88
OH, LAWD...
About 9" in Austin!!!
LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
About 9" in Austin!!!
LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
0
Posted on 1/14/19 at 8:51 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
What could happen: The middle of next week (I'm talking 240 hrs out) currently looks epic for central to north Louisiana.
Clearly you’re not familiar with how unreliable the GFS gets after 4-5 days lol
Posted on 1/15/19 at 12:19 am to bayoubengals88
Ohh shite
Posted on 1/15/19 at 12:26 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 1/15/19 at 6:45 am to bayoubengals88
Austin looking like it going to get smacked 
Posted on 1/15/19 at 9:48 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Additionally there's another winter system wayyy out.
If we start getting hit with a bunch of cold fronts AFTER duck season ends I will be quite upset.
Posted on 1/16/19 at 6:48 am to bayoubengals88
What websites do you use?
Does it show systems out across the pacific?
Does it show systems out across the pacific?
Posted on 1/17/19 at 10:12 am to bayoubengals88
Sorry bruh, no snow coming here next week.
Posted on 1/19/19 at 8:06 am to bayoubengals88
From storms to snow
Posted on 1/24/19 at 10:47 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 1/26/19 at 9:29 am to bayoubengals88
Hey, if it gets me a day off of work, I’m all for it.
Posted on 1/26/19 at 9:20 pm to bayoubengals88
From the Chicago NWS forecast discussion...good thing it is not going to dip this far south.
.LONG TERM...
158 PM CST
Tuesday through Saturday...
Record breaking to perhaps historic cold outbreak still on track
for mid week.
Medium range models remain generally in good agreement in bringing
in a period of record breaking cold, though there are some minor
differences in the details in the models. For days now, the GFS
and GFS-FV3 have remained on the cold end of the spectrum with 2m
advertising fairly widespread -30F temps Wed morning across the
northern CWA and keeping temps at or below -20 all day Wednesday.
These readings don`t just break records, but in some cases shatter
the all-time records. The ECMWF has been and the latest continues
to be more reasonable with 2m temps but still advertises
widespread temps at or below -20F Tues night/Wed AM and again Wed
night/Thur AM.
The ECMWF, GEM, FV3, and GFS all continue advertise all time
record cold 850mb temps and 500mb heights based on the SPC
sounding climo tool. These forecast values have shown some slight
variability from run to run over the past several days, but the
variability has mainly all been within record territory and just a
matter of how much lower than records the values progged are.
Given the run to run consistency and the consistency among the
various medium range models and their respective ensembles, it is
growing increasingly difficult to refrain from forecasting near
all time record temperatures.
Generally speaking, raw 2m temps from the various models
outperform any MOS type products during periods of extreme
temperatures. Have continued to gradually trend the forecast
closer to the model consensus of 2m temps, but still stayed a bit
warmer than the mean and much warmer than the coldest guidance
(GFS & FV3). While remaining warmer than the mean of 2m temp
guidance, we still are now officially forecasting record tying
all time cold high temps Wed at both RFD and ORD. Wind chills
should easily drop into the -35 to -45 range with some -50 degree
wind chills possible, especially Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM...
158 PM CST
Tuesday through Saturday...
Record breaking to perhaps historic cold outbreak still on track
for mid week.
Medium range models remain generally in good agreement in bringing
in a period of record breaking cold, though there are some minor
differences in the details in the models. For days now, the GFS
and GFS-FV3 have remained on the cold end of the spectrum with 2m
advertising fairly widespread -30F temps Wed morning across the
northern CWA and keeping temps at or below -20 all day Wednesday.
These readings don`t just break records, but in some cases shatter
the all-time records. The ECMWF has been and the latest continues
to be more reasonable with 2m temps but still advertises
widespread temps at or below -20F Tues night/Wed AM and again Wed
night/Thur AM.
The ECMWF, GEM, FV3, and GFS all continue advertise all time
record cold 850mb temps and 500mb heights based on the SPC
sounding climo tool. These forecast values have shown some slight
variability from run to run over the past several days, but the
variability has mainly all been within record territory and just a
matter of how much lower than records the values progged are.
Given the run to run consistency and the consistency among the
various medium range models and their respective ensembles, it is
growing increasingly difficult to refrain from forecasting near
all time record temperatures.
Generally speaking, raw 2m temps from the various models
outperform any MOS type products during periods of extreme
temperatures. Have continued to gradually trend the forecast
closer to the model consensus of 2m temps, but still stayed a bit
warmer than the mean and much warmer than the coldest guidance
(GFS & FV3). While remaining warmer than the mean of 2m temp
guidance, we still are now officially forecasting record tying
all time cold high temps Wed at both RFD and ORD. Wind chills
should easily drop into the -35 to -45 range with some -50 degree
wind chills possible, especially Wednesday morning.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 5:39 pm to bayoubengals88
as we know from the past, we either get no snow or 3 inches+ in baton rouge
Posted on 1/28/19 at 6:26 am to bayoubengals88
Here’s the updated forecast from James Spann and the Alabama Weather Blog Network
LINK
LINK
Posted on 1/28/19 at 7:22 am to bayoubengals88
Shreveport is getting between 0-85 inches of snow and the high will be somewhere between 35-72 today.
Damn, I should have been a Meteorologist.
Damn, I should have been a Meteorologist.
Posted on 1/28/19 at 9:50 am to bayoubengals88
Looks like it's not happening in SLA
Around Alexandria:
Around Alexandria:
This post was edited on 1/28/19 at 9:52 am
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:16 pm to bayoubengals88
"extremely cold arctic airmass"
NWS is only forecasting 28 for a low on wednesday morning in BR
that doesn't seem "extremely cold"
NWS is only forecasting 28 for a low on wednesday morning in BR
that doesn't seem "extremely cold"
Posted on 1/28/19 at 1:26 pm to bayoubengals88
Can someone help explain this one to me?
not really sure what is going on here. For Baton Rouge, weather.com has it raining and 47 degrees at 3am on the hourly and WAFB has a wintry mix and 35 degrees at 3am.
How can they be forecasting a difference of 12 degrees at that time this close to the event?
not really sure what is going on here. For Baton Rouge, weather.com has it raining and 47 degrees at 3am on the hourly and WAFB has a wintry mix and 35 degrees at 3am.
How can they be forecasting a difference of 12 degrees at that time this close to the event?
Posted on 1/28/19 at 3:46 pm to bayoubengals88
HRRR liking BR more
Posted on 1/28/19 at 4:06 pm to bayoubengals88
winds are going to be SCREAMING out of the north
67deg at 4pm mon
33deg 6am tue
That's a plunge of 34 degrees in 14 hours
67deg at 4pm mon
33deg 6am tue
That's a plunge of 34 degrees in 14 hours
This post was edited on 1/28/19 at 4:09 pm
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