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Message
PREVIEW: LSU vs St Mary's 12/15 10PM ESPNU in Las Vegas
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:16 pm
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:16 pm
I know over the last couple of days, people are NOT excited about the LSU Men's Basketball team...so before I get into an in depth preview, I'll start by dropping just a SMALL bit of perspective...and I know people will be pissed about it.
PERSPECTIVE
Last year, the University of Michigan reached the NCAA Championship game. During their schedule prior to January (Big Ten does it weird because they play a couple of conference games in December), they lost to unranked LSU in which they had a large lead blown late, a blowout loss at UNC, and a 9 point loss at Ohio State. At that point, they were 7-3 on the season. They followed that with wins vs UCLA and on the road at Texas before beating 3 subpar teams to go into January at 12-3.
From there, at one point they were 8-5 in conference and 19-7 overall, including a 20 point loss to Nebraska. From that point forward, they won 14 straight games and reached the Championship.
This is just one example of a team starting slow and heating up towards the end. Also, last season, there were 21...TWENTY-ONE At-Large teams in the Tournament that lost double digit games. This is not Football...you can lose many games and still get into the tournament and make some noise.
LSU has lost to a top 15 team in Florida State, an undefeated team in Houston at a VERY difficult place to play, and I'll admit...an average Oklahoma State team that we played terrible against. Personally, I think we had a hangover from that devastating FSU lost. We have lost to quality opponents, and it is not time to give up on the season.
Onto the Preview...
LSU
Projected Starting Lineup
C Naz Reid- 6'10 250 12.2ppg, 4.8rpg
F Darius Days- 6'7 225 7.3ppg, 5.2rpg
G Ja'vonte Smart- 6'4 200 12.1ppg, 3.4rpg, 3.0apg
G Skylar Mays- 6'4 200 13.2ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.5apg, 42% from 3
G Tremont Waters- 5'10 175 11.3ppg, 5.2apg, 3.0spg
BENCH
F Emmitt Williams- 6'7 220 8ppg, 7rpg
G Marlon Taylor- 5.7ppg, 2.7rpg
C Kavell Bigby-Williams- 7.3ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.5bpg
G Daryl Edwards- 4.6ppg
It will be very interesting to see what Coach Wade decides to do this game. Marlon Taylor was a shot of adrenaline last game, and in the 2nd half his minutes evaporated and LSU lost his athleticism on the boards. Same can be said for Bigby-Williams who only played 6 minutes, and while the Tigers got humiliated on the boards, you have to wonder why he did not receive more minutes. Darius Days matches up well for this type of matchup, but he has not been able to stay out of foul trouble lately. Personally, I would like to see Coach Wade play some guys more minutes and play who has the hot hand more.
St. Mary's
Projected Starting Lineup
C Jordan Hunter- 6'10 230 10.3ppg, 6.4rpg, 64% FG%
F Malik Fitts- 6'8 230 15.1ppg, 7.9rpg, 44.9% from 3
F Elijah Thomas- 6'5 220 6.4ppg, 2.5rpg
G Tommy Kuhse- 6'2 180 5.1ppg
G Jordan Ford- 6'1 175 22.5ppg, 3.2apg, 51.5% FG%, 83.6% FT%, 44% 3P%
BENCH
G Tanner Krebs- 6'6 205 6.9ppg
F Dan Fotu- 6'7 220 4.5ppg, 3.5rpg, 45% from 3
C Jock Perry- 7'1 250
F Matthias Tass- 6'10 240
To say there is a drop off from St Mary's top 2 players is an understatement. Jordan Ford will drive, he will shoot, he will do whatever he wants whenever he wants. He loves to run pick plays with Fitts. Ford has taken 165 shots, Fitts 119, then Krebs and Hunter are at 64. By comparison (LSU has played one less game), LSU has 4 players who have taken 90+ shots, but 0 who have taken over 100. We have 4 guys who have shot between 40-50 shots...8 players in all for LSU have taken over 40 shots. St Mary's has 5 guys who have taken over 40 shots
Just like always, St Marys can shoot the 3. However, they don't just launch them up whenever they feel like it. St Mary's shoots 21.1 3's per contest, LSU shoots 23, to give you an idea.
Statistics
LSU:
Offense
PPG: 81.5 (36th nationally)
FG%: 48.5% (38th nationally)
3P%: 32.6% (223rd nationally)
2P%: 58.5% (9th nationally)
APG: 14.8 (96th nationally)
TPG: 14.4 (233rd nationally)
Ast:TO: 1.028 (14th nationally)
ORPG: 11.1 (37th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.106 (32nd nationally)
Defense
PPG: 71.0 (136th nationally)
FG%: 42.2% (105th nationally)
3P%: 36.7% (274th nationally)
2P%: 45.6% (51st nationally)
RPG: 37.6 (91st nationally)
SPG: 9.6 (7th nationally)
Opponents TPG: 15.6 (50th nationally)
Efficiency: .964 (116th nationally)
What the stats say about LSU
LSU is a good scoring team, and actually, a fairly efficient team. However, it is PAINFUL to see that LSU is 223rd in 3P% and 9th in 2P%. Outside of turnovers and 3P%, LSU is one of the better offensive teams we have had in a very long time. If Waters can cut his turnovers down (averaging 4.4 per game), and our team starts taking better shots and closer to the rim, it really could be a special offense...no matter what people think/say.
Defensively, LSU really has gotten better the last few weeks. The competition has not been great, but it has improved. We were a BAD defense and have become an average defense. If the team can figure out rebounding, it can really round into a nice team.
St. Mary's
PPG: 78.0 (78th nationally)
FG%: 49.7% (16th nationally)
3P%: 39.1% (35th nationally)
2P%: 56.2% (38th nationally)
APG: 12.5 (223rd nationally)
TPG: 9.3 (3rd nationally)
Ast:TO: 1.343 (36th nationally)
ORPG: 7.9 (230th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.171 (6th nationally)
Defense
PPG: 67.2 (63rd nationally)
FG%: 44.2% (186th nationally)
3P%: 29.6% (44th nationally)
2P%: 50.9 % (190th nationally)
RPG: 33.5 (249th nationally)
SPG: 5.8 (215th nationally)
Opponents TPG: 10.5 (339th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.009 (183rd nationally)
What the stats say about St. Mary's
St. Mary's is a well coached, well oiled, and great shooting team. They create a lot off of the bounce...mostly Ford. They're top 40 in every meaningful category except offensive rebounds and assists.
Defensively, they're a bit of an enigma. They're fantastic defending the 3, bad at defending the 2, and even worse at creating turnovers. Their lack of turnovers does not allow them to get out into transition and score easy points. However, they make up for this because they're so organized on offense.
PERSPECTIVE
Last year, the University of Michigan reached the NCAA Championship game. During their schedule prior to January (Big Ten does it weird because they play a couple of conference games in December), they lost to unranked LSU in which they had a large lead blown late, a blowout loss at UNC, and a 9 point loss at Ohio State. At that point, they were 7-3 on the season. They followed that with wins vs UCLA and on the road at Texas before beating 3 subpar teams to go into January at 12-3.
From there, at one point they were 8-5 in conference and 19-7 overall, including a 20 point loss to Nebraska. From that point forward, they won 14 straight games and reached the Championship.
This is just one example of a team starting slow and heating up towards the end. Also, last season, there were 21...TWENTY-ONE At-Large teams in the Tournament that lost double digit games. This is not Football...you can lose many games and still get into the tournament and make some noise.
LSU has lost to a top 15 team in Florida State, an undefeated team in Houston at a VERY difficult place to play, and I'll admit...an average Oklahoma State team that we played terrible against. Personally, I think we had a hangover from that devastating FSU lost. We have lost to quality opponents, and it is not time to give up on the season.
Onto the Preview...
LSU
Projected Starting Lineup
C Naz Reid- 6'10 250 12.2ppg, 4.8rpg
F Darius Days- 6'7 225 7.3ppg, 5.2rpg
G Ja'vonte Smart- 6'4 200 12.1ppg, 3.4rpg, 3.0apg
G Skylar Mays- 6'4 200 13.2ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.5apg, 42% from 3
G Tremont Waters- 5'10 175 11.3ppg, 5.2apg, 3.0spg
BENCH
F Emmitt Williams- 6'7 220 8ppg, 7rpg
G Marlon Taylor- 5.7ppg, 2.7rpg
C Kavell Bigby-Williams- 7.3ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.5bpg
G Daryl Edwards- 4.6ppg
It will be very interesting to see what Coach Wade decides to do this game. Marlon Taylor was a shot of adrenaline last game, and in the 2nd half his minutes evaporated and LSU lost his athleticism on the boards. Same can be said for Bigby-Williams who only played 6 minutes, and while the Tigers got humiliated on the boards, you have to wonder why he did not receive more minutes. Darius Days matches up well for this type of matchup, but he has not been able to stay out of foul trouble lately. Personally, I would like to see Coach Wade play some guys more minutes and play who has the hot hand more.
St. Mary's
Projected Starting Lineup
C Jordan Hunter- 6'10 230 10.3ppg, 6.4rpg, 64% FG%
F Malik Fitts- 6'8 230 15.1ppg, 7.9rpg, 44.9% from 3
F Elijah Thomas- 6'5 220 6.4ppg, 2.5rpg
G Tommy Kuhse- 6'2 180 5.1ppg
G Jordan Ford- 6'1 175 22.5ppg, 3.2apg, 51.5% FG%, 83.6% FT%, 44% 3P%
BENCH
G Tanner Krebs- 6'6 205 6.9ppg
F Dan Fotu- 6'7 220 4.5ppg, 3.5rpg, 45% from 3
C Jock Perry- 7'1 250
F Matthias Tass- 6'10 240
To say there is a drop off from St Mary's top 2 players is an understatement. Jordan Ford will drive, he will shoot, he will do whatever he wants whenever he wants. He loves to run pick plays with Fitts. Ford has taken 165 shots, Fitts 119, then Krebs and Hunter are at 64. By comparison (LSU has played one less game), LSU has 4 players who have taken 90+ shots, but 0 who have taken over 100. We have 4 guys who have shot between 40-50 shots...8 players in all for LSU have taken over 40 shots. St Mary's has 5 guys who have taken over 40 shots
Just like always, St Marys can shoot the 3. However, they don't just launch them up whenever they feel like it. St Mary's shoots 21.1 3's per contest, LSU shoots 23, to give you an idea.
Statistics
LSU:
Offense
PPG: 81.5 (36th nationally)
FG%: 48.5% (38th nationally)
3P%: 32.6% (223rd nationally)
2P%: 58.5% (9th nationally)
APG: 14.8 (96th nationally)
TPG: 14.4 (233rd nationally)
Ast:TO: 1.028 (14th nationally)
ORPG: 11.1 (37th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.106 (32nd nationally)
Defense
PPG: 71.0 (136th nationally)
FG%: 42.2% (105th nationally)
3P%: 36.7% (274th nationally)
2P%: 45.6% (51st nationally)
RPG: 37.6 (91st nationally)
SPG: 9.6 (7th nationally)
Opponents TPG: 15.6 (50th nationally)
Efficiency: .964 (116th nationally)
What the stats say about LSU
LSU is a good scoring team, and actually, a fairly efficient team. However, it is PAINFUL to see that LSU is 223rd in 3P% and 9th in 2P%. Outside of turnovers and 3P%, LSU is one of the better offensive teams we have had in a very long time. If Waters can cut his turnovers down (averaging 4.4 per game), and our team starts taking better shots and closer to the rim, it really could be a special offense...no matter what people think/say.
Defensively, LSU really has gotten better the last few weeks. The competition has not been great, but it has improved. We were a BAD defense and have become an average defense. If the team can figure out rebounding, it can really round into a nice team.
St. Mary's
PPG: 78.0 (78th nationally)
FG%: 49.7% (16th nationally)
3P%: 39.1% (35th nationally)
2P%: 56.2% (38th nationally)
APG: 12.5 (223rd nationally)
TPG: 9.3 (3rd nationally)
Ast:TO: 1.343 (36th nationally)
ORPG: 7.9 (230th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.171 (6th nationally)
Defense
PPG: 67.2 (63rd nationally)
FG%: 44.2% (186th nationally)
3P%: 29.6% (44th nationally)
2P%: 50.9 % (190th nationally)
RPG: 33.5 (249th nationally)
SPG: 5.8 (215th nationally)
Opponents TPG: 10.5 (339th nationally)
Efficiency: 1.009 (183rd nationally)
What the stats say about St. Mary's
St. Mary's is a well coached, well oiled, and great shooting team. They create a lot off of the bounce...mostly Ford. They're top 40 in every meaningful category except offensive rebounds and assists.
Defensively, they're a bit of an enigma. They're fantastic defending the 3, bad at defending the 2, and even worse at creating turnovers. Their lack of turnovers does not allow them to get out into transition and score easy points. However, they make up for this because they're so organized on offense.
9
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:16 pm to LSUButt
PREDICTION
LSU is coming off an extremely difficult game on the road, and an extremely physical game. Add in the fact that they lost in heartbreaking fashion, it really is difficult to know what to expect. Hopefully for Tiger fans, the demolition the team received against Oklahoma State after losing to FSU will be fresh in their minds.
Talent-wise, LSU is head and shoulders better. St. Mary's does a great job recruiting Australia/NZ/Overseas. St. Mary's has size, but they're a finesse team that likes to spread the floor, and get their playmakers...well, playmaker...the ball. St. Mary's scores lots of points, but does it in a very different way than the Tigers. They run, as coach Wade calls it, a European offense. Lots of on-ball screens, cutting through the lane, etc. LSU must focus on Ford and Fitts. I would force others to beat me, and really key on those guys.
Hunter is a big guy for SMC that does not shoot. This should be a SLAM DUNK great matchup for KBW and Reid. With Fitts, it will come down to Days and Williams. This is a guy that averages 15, but could go for 30 if we allow him to. Offensively, LSU needs to stay aggressive. They do not challenge shots at the rim, and allow dribble drives and post entries. The 2 wing players for the Gaels are non-existent on the offensive end. There is no excuse for us not to win this rebounding matchup by 10+.
I think LSU bounces back, has ups and downs, but the talent wins out. I don't want to say this is a must win...but it almost is. SMC will be a solid top 100 NET team, so this win would look very good in a few months. Even outside of our tournament resumè, it would be a big boost for our young team's confidence.
LSU 84
SMC 75
LSU is coming off an extremely difficult game on the road, and an extremely physical game. Add in the fact that they lost in heartbreaking fashion, it really is difficult to know what to expect. Hopefully for Tiger fans, the demolition the team received against Oklahoma State after losing to FSU will be fresh in their minds.
Talent-wise, LSU is head and shoulders better. St. Mary's does a great job recruiting Australia/NZ/Overseas. St. Mary's has size, but they're a finesse team that likes to spread the floor, and get their playmakers...well, playmaker...the ball. St. Mary's scores lots of points, but does it in a very different way than the Tigers. They run, as coach Wade calls it, a European offense. Lots of on-ball screens, cutting through the lane, etc. LSU must focus on Ford and Fitts. I would force others to beat me, and really key on those guys.
Hunter is a big guy for SMC that does not shoot. This should be a SLAM DUNK great matchup for KBW and Reid. With Fitts, it will come down to Days and Williams. This is a guy that averages 15, but could go for 30 if we allow him to. Offensively, LSU needs to stay aggressive. They do not challenge shots at the rim, and allow dribble drives and post entries. The 2 wing players for the Gaels are non-existent on the offensive end. There is no excuse for us not to win this rebounding matchup by 10+.
I think LSU bounces back, has ups and downs, but the talent wins out. I don't want to say this is a must win...but it almost is. SMC will be a solid top 100 NET team, so this win would look very good in a few months. Even outside of our tournament resumè, it would be a big boost for our young team's confidence.
LSU 84
SMC 75
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:24 pm to LSUButt
Great stuff, my last couple of previews have not been as detailed so I apologize for that. If you would like to take over by all means with school and everything else it is tough. Great preview and really liked all of the stat info on where LSU stands.
I think LSU bounces back as well
I think LSU bounces back as well
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:29 pm to LSUButt
quote:
This is just one example of a team starting slow and heating up towards the end.
I've posted this a couple times about what Calipari of his 2017 team and comparing it to his 2014 team...
quote:
"This is a totally different deal. This is kind of like we had in 2014 where you have a good group of kids, you have a talented group of kids, but they're not ready to win basketball games. They're exchanging baskets. That's where this team is.
That 2014 team made the Final Four. Sometimes it takes true freshman longer to figure out the college game. I'm no way saying that LSU is destined to make the Final Four. But, these tough losses to quality teams are only helping to shape and mold this team into what they can become in conference play and in March. It's a long season and we're just getting started.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:32 pm to TigerLunatik
I still think this team is still somewhere in between a a first round exit and a sweet 16 exit. It would depend on the draw but they seem at times to just not have that killer instinct which for a lot of young teams is understandable in high school/aau you get up on a team most either fold or do not have the ability to come back.
ETA Both Fla State and Houston were games we should have won and were up by too much at various points in the second half to let those slip. Florida State is the difference between an 8/9 seed and a 6 or 7.
ETA Both Fla State and Houston were games we should have won and were up by too much at various points in the second half to let those slip. Florida State is the difference between an 8/9 seed and a 6 or 7.
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:37 pm to CoastTrashTiger
That's probably an accurate tournament assessment. Hopefully they learned what kind of effort and intensity it takes to win a game like that. Houston had an extra gear that LSU wasn't ready for and the kids just couldn't match it. Maybe they've learned that lesson now and can take it up a notch tomorrow night. I think we need at least one of these guys to take over in pressure situations, if not 2. Looks like Smart may be beginning to show that he's that guy. If we can get a big to compliment that, it will go a long way to winning some tough games.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:14 pm to CoastTrashTiger
quote:
Great stuff, my last couple of previews have not been as detailed so I apologize for that. If you would like to take over by all means with school and everything else it is tough. Great preview and really liked all of the stat info on where LSU stands.
Appreciate it, but I have no problem chipping in when I can. Had lots of down time today so was able to crush it, not sure on a day to day basis what my life holds
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:51 pm to LSUButt
Until WW proves that he can beat a quality team I cannot pick this Tiger Team. LSU Should win, St. Marys will win due to coaching.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:53 pm to ArcticTiger
Guess you didn't watch much last year or at the beginning of this season.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:54 pm to ArcticTiger
quote:
Until WW proves that he can beat a quality team I cannot pick this Tiger Team.
Posts like this are so incredibly ignorant
We beat tourney teams last year. We even beat the National Runner-Up. But hey man, keep living in your narrative
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:01 pm to ArcticTiger
quote:
Until WW proves that he can beat a quality team I cannot pick this Tiger Team.
Until WW proves that he can defend a quality 3 point shooting team I cannot pick this Tiger Team.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:39 pm to LSUButt
quote:
3P%: 32.6% (223rd nationally) 2P%: 58.5% (9th nationally)
Huh, you would think something like this would stick out at them and tell them to stop shooting dumbass 3 pointers and get the ball inside
Posted on 12/14/18 at 9:53 pm to ElectricWizard0
Right? Actually called my friend and told him how shocking that stat is. It is MIND BOGGLING
Posted on 12/14/18 at 10:28 pm to LSUButt
Thanks Butt! Your previews are always inciteful and informative. I’ve honestly had to reasses my expectations (based on recruiting rankings of our bigs for this season) and put things into perspective. The 2nd Half of games this year have been brutal to watch. The big question for me is what is going on with Waters? I was looking for him to run this group like a maestro but the opposite has happened. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt only 10 games in but we need him to step up if we’re going to make a run. Or turn it over to Smart & let him run the show. TW’s turnovers and shot selection has been mind boggling. Don’t get me started on Reid. (Talk about expectations) I’m just hoping some way they do enough to sneak in as a 10 - 12 at large. After Wades statement, I’m not sure they even take an NIT bid if invited.
Posted on 12/14/18 at 11:25 pm to teeMike
I really don’t want to openly bash Waters. I think his size creates a problem for him offensively and defensively. I just feel at times he’s a bit lazy and doesn’t try to create or attack enough. I don’t want to put too much blame on him, but he was supposed to be our focal point. He’s supposed to make things happen, but 4.4 turnovers and shooting 27% from 3 with as many as he takes...it seriously is like 8-9 wasted possessions, it absolutely kills us.
Wade has to either a) drastically cut down Tremont’s minutes and manage his confidence from there or b) Waters HAS to figure it out. This team right now will go nowhere. If this is the Waters we continue to get, we won’t go further, it’s that simple.
Wade has to either a) drastically cut down Tremont’s minutes and manage his confidence from there or b) Waters HAS to figure it out. This team right now will go nowhere. If this is the Waters we continue to get, we won’t go further, it’s that simple.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 9:27 am to LSUButt
Shameless bump
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:09 am to LSUButt
I'm excited to go tonight. Haven't been to a game in a few years.
I will be drinking at the beer garden outside T Mobile early today. Hope to see some fellow Tiger fans.
I will be drinking at the beer garden outside T Mobile early today. Hope to see some fellow Tiger fans.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:32 am to TigerLunatik
quote:
I've posted this a couple times about what Calipari of his 2017 team and comparing it to his 2014 team
Calipari also has no problem benching 5 star recruits if they aren't playing how he wants them to play.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 10:33 am to LSUButt
quote:
I think LSU bounces back, has ups and downs, but the talent wins out. I don't want to say this is a must win...but it almost is. SMC will be a solid top 100 NET team, so this win would look very good in a few months. Even outside of our tournament resumè, it would be a big boost for our young team's confidence. LSU 84 SMC 75
If LSU beats St. Mary's by 9, I will feel a lot better about the team. It's hard to see that, though, given our last 4 games.
Posted on 12/15/18 at 11:12 am to Manswers
quote:
If LSU beats St. Mary's by 9, I will feel a lot better about the team. It's hard to see that, though, given our last 4 games.
Let's not overlook how up and down St Mary's is either. This is a team that got destroyed by Utah State, lost to Harvard and UC Irvine. All of those teams are solid but none of them are world beaters.
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