re: Tennis 2019 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread

CRACKA TRIGGER WARNING -- READ FURTHER AT YOUR OWN RISK


Knowlzee said during the FAA match that "it was only a matter of time before FAA is #1 in the world". He said it emphatically and without qualification.

And I'm not posting this as some kind of appeal to authority, because it is just Knowlzee's opinion....but I do think Knowlzee is one of the better and more insightful commentators in the game, and give some weight to his thoughts.

And, hell, I really want FAA to go ahead and start winning majors now so that we can dispel with this 'the game is too physical for young guys to win majors' silliness. No no. Young guys simply need to be good enough. And that just hasn't been the case since Novak and Rafa won majors at a young age and a very young age, respectively. Oh, and Delpo too.*

Apologies to Milos Raonic, we ran out of time.


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* I always forget how young he was when he was knocking the damn racquet out of smug's hand with some of the fastest forehands I've ever seen. Damn shame he wasn't able to stay healthy for any extended period. I feel like he should be a 3-4 major guy, but it's prolly not in the cards now.

ETA: such a fun final to watch: 2009 US Open Final Highlights

ETA2: the one at 1-1 in the 4th set. Dear gawd. Had to be over 110.

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CRACKA TRIGGER WARNING

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You may not have noticed, but Felix is the only young player I haven't really argued against, in terms of his future. Does that mean I think he's a lock to win X amount of slams and/or be #1 in X years? Well, no. But I do think he's the truth. He has everything you would want in terms of skill, size, speed, athleticism, work ethic, and (maybe most importantly) attitude and mental toughness.

ETA: If I had to nitpick something... his forehand is currently one of the worst on tour, in my opinion. Is it Benoit-Paire bad? No, but pretty close. It has too much topspin and he struggles when trying to flatten it out to hit winners. Not only is it often landing short, it's landing WAY short. I'm talking service-line short. And on clay that type of ball just sits up perfectly for the top players to demolish.

The good news? In terms of correctability, I would think a forehand is easier to fix than some other strokes or characteristics. Another option is to keep the same grip but improve the pace, either by a dramatic change in racket head speed (unlikely), a racket change (meh), or a drop in string tension (which worked for me).

heck of a final 8 in Madrid, best I've seen in a while

For everyone who is probably wondering why I never shut up about betting, this is a little glimpse into what I do for a living. I'm not looking to hijack the thread. It's tennis related.

I was looking at the props on 5Dimes and came across +245 for Tsitsipas to win in straight sets. It felt a little high so I checked it against all the other sportsbooks and, sure enough, they made a rare miss on the number.

This image below shows an average price of +167 and a "best" price of +187. A 2-0 win is the same bet as -1.5 Sets.



There are a few ways to attack this, which I won't cover here, but I chose what I call the freeroll option. I placed the following bets:

$200 to win $490 on Tsitsipas 2-0
$420 to win $200 on any other result

If he wins in straights, I win $70. If anything else happens, I break even. Basically I'm risking nothing with a decent chance to win something (freerolling). Here are my bets...





Unfortunately 5Dimes adjusted the line to +170 after I bet it. My bad

That's one of the many approaches I use to beat sports betting. The ironic thing is that tennis is my favorite sport, and the sport I know the most about, yet it's the least profitable for me. Any bets I make or mention in this thread are for fun, not business. Believe it or not, the bulk of my money comes from soccer, and I don't know shite about it.

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You may not have noticed, but Felix is the only young player I haven't really argued against, in terms of his future.

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Was just giving you a hard time.

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ETA: If I had to nitpick something... his forehand is currently one of the worst on tour, in my opinion. Is it Benoit-Paire bad? No, but pretty close. It has too much topspin and he struggles when trying to flatten it out to hit winners.

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I was actually thinking that his backhand was too topspin-y. It's of course still better than every American on tour save maybe Fritz. And also better than the one-handed offering of his canuck brethren. I just don't understand why any kid would hit a one-hander. "because Roger Federer does it" is not an acceptable answer imho.

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The good news? In terms of correctability, I would think a forehand is easier to fix than some other strokes or characteristics.

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Probably true. It's a more natural motion. I radically changed my forehand grip a couple years ago and was able to get comfortable with it relatively quickly.* It took me several months to figure out the old grip was better, and when I switched back it was like I had never changed it at all.


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*why did I do this? I was trying to copy the forehand of this guy from my hometown. His forehand is both fairly unorthodox and ridiculously nasty. He basically hits it with a ping pong grip....so take your regular forehand grip and put your index finger along the the length of the grip, and leave the other fingers wrapped around like you normally would. I figured switching to his grip would give me his forehand. It did not. I don't know how he hits his forehand the way he does, but the angles are insane. I think he just has better hand-eye than me.**

**that being said, i could hit some amazing shots when I used that grip, but the consistency wasn't there. Maybe if I'd been using it my whole life... But since I hadn't, I went back to ole semi-western. I rarely hit it for a winner, but I fricking never miss a ball. Well...at least when I was still playing tennis. Haven't played in several months.

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That's one thing I won't be playing. I think Thiem wins, but I won't be laying -250 either.

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I layed it.

Smug is gonna win this match, and MV is gonna be really really pissed.

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jk, I think Thiem has a good shot at winning this set

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This tb is no joking matter

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