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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 4/23/19 at 11:29 am to castorinho
Posted on 4/23/19 at 11:29 am to castorinho
He still has a chance, we just need a 55% drop in 7 weeks
Posted on 4/23/19 at 12:02 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I’ve been waiting for this bump lol.
Posted on 4/23/19 at 4:03 pm to jimbeam
We did it baws, new record highs
Posted on 4/24/19 at 9:36 am to LSUtoOmaha
I firmly expect the fed to indicate rate hikes in the very near future but i dont see that slowing equities.
Posted on 4/24/19 at 9:37 am to Mr.Perfect
quote:
firmly expect the fed to indicate rate hikes in the very near future but i dont see that slowing equities.
You are essentially the only person predicting this
Posted on 4/24/19 at 11:26 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
You are essentially the only person predicting this
just wait
Posted on 4/24/19 at 12:27 pm to Mr.Perfect
Every time they have raise rates, the market has pulled back
They’ve essentially said they won’t be raising rates again anytime soon.
Your 2 statements don’t jive
They’ve essentially said they won’t be raising rates again anytime soon.
Your 2 statements don’t jive
Posted on 4/24/19 at 4:28 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
Every time they have raise rates, the market has pulled back They’ve essentially said they won’t be raising rates again anytime soon. Your 2 statements don’t jive
First of all this is just my opinion
Second, the fed paused and the markets are roaring. This is a massive week for earnings and basically everything is great and forward guidance is increasingly positively. I think the fears of US and global recession are fading fast and we will see a hint at increasing rates again very soon.
Posted on 4/24/19 at 7:52 pm to thatguy
quote:
Today was a good day
Expect many more
Posted on 4/26/19 at 5:19 pm to leoj
Yes, we haven’t seen a lot of retail money come in yet. That should start pouring in here shortly as the MSM celebrates new market highs, which will push the market up another ~5%?
Then smart money will begin to take gains and I would expect a pullback. Lol if only it were all that easy though.
Then smart money will begin to take gains and I would expect a pullback. Lol if only it were all that easy though.
Posted on 4/29/19 at 6:15 pm to Doc Fenton
I was dreading the approach of this day.
The previous 2,940.91 high from 9/21/2018 has been surpassed. Egg on my face. I was wrong.
I still maintain my main thesis about current overvaluation and how bad the severity of the end of this bull market is going to be, and I still see gigantic never-before-seen divergences and other historical oddities. I still have a very large portion of my portfolio in cash (i.e., cash + short-term bonds), I took decent precautions regarding my allocations, and I don't feel bad about missing out on gains this year.
Still, there's no excusing the losses I've incurred over the first 4 months of this year. I entered too hard in late January on the faintest of signals of increasing VIX without waiting for more evidence that the next leg down had actually commenced, or that unemployment had actually bottomed.
On the brighter side, I think I've learned a valuable lesson, and I still have tons of dry powder to make money once this whale of a rally finally flips course. But I'll be more humble about it, and try to just take what the market's giving me, rather than trying to be such a front-runner. I will live to see better days ahead, hopefully sooner rather than later.
For those who have been bullish or else just passively invested in equities this year, congrats. You've eaten my lunch for the first 1/3 of the year.
quote:
If the markets go another 5% or so higher and exceed the Fall 2018 peak, then that will certainly be egg on my face
The previous 2,940.91 high from 9/21/2018 has been surpassed. Egg on my face. I was wrong.
I still maintain my main thesis about current overvaluation and how bad the severity of the end of this bull market is going to be, and I still see gigantic never-before-seen divergences and other historical oddities. I still have a very large portion of my portfolio in cash (i.e., cash + short-term bonds), I took decent precautions regarding my allocations, and I don't feel bad about missing out on gains this year.
Still, there's no excusing the losses I've incurred over the first 4 months of this year. I entered too hard in late January on the faintest of signals of increasing VIX without waiting for more evidence that the next leg down had actually commenced, or that unemployment had actually bottomed.
On the brighter side, I think I've learned a valuable lesson, and I still have tons of dry powder to make money once this whale of a rally finally flips course. But I'll be more humble about it, and try to just take what the market's giving me, rather than trying to be such a front-runner. I will live to see better days ahead, hopefully sooner rather than later.
For those who have been bullish or else just passively invested in equities this year, congrats. You've eaten my lunch for the first 1/3 of the year.
Posted on 4/29/19 at 6:36 pm to Doc Fenton
Do you brother, but I’m buying more on this next “crash”. Wish I was in a spot in 2008 to make bank bro!!!
Posted on 4/29/19 at 8:19 pm to Doc Fenton
Have you noticed how light the volumes are in equities?
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