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Likelihood of Sopsher to Alabama or LSU? - By the numbers analysis
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:31 pm
Several threads with people freaking out about Sopsher as silent commit to Bama and its a done deal...I don't think so.
Current 2019 Alabama Verbal Commits that will play DL:
Alfano SDE 6-4 / 285 4 star #3 SDE - NY
Eboigbe SDE 6-4.5 / 263 4 star #9 SDE - GA
Young SDE 6-4 / 279 4 star #10 SDE - MS
Dale DT 6-3 / 323 4 star #14 DT - AL
Cheney DT 6-2 / 270 4 star #22 DT - GA
Bama is recruiting four other DTs including:
Sopsher DT 6-3.5 / 334 5 star #1 DT - LA
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Bama will not sign more than 6 DL in 2019...why?
Because they have 21 Verbals and I seriously doubt they don't accept signed LOIs from the DL they have verbally committed as they are all very highly ranked and or geographically sensitive/important. Bama has 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 CB, 1 S, 1 ILB, 2WDE verbally committed.
They need:
1 RB - 1 committed-want & lead for 5 star Trey Sanders #1 RB
1-2 WR - 1 committed
1 DB - 3 committed and they run a 4 DB defense (but, not necessary in 2019)
1 LB - 3 committed and they run a 4 LB defense (but, not necessary in 2019)
1 DT - recruiting 4 hard
1 C - Clay Webb #1 Center from Oxford, AL will commit
That's 4 or 5 players of need and they only have 4 spots left. DB and LB are not a necessity in 2019 with the verbals they currently have and the 2018 class, but if the right recruit wanted to commit, Saban might take LB Dean or Thibodeaux.
RB & Center are sure bets. That's 23. Bama took 6 LBs, 5 CBs, & no true Safetys in 2018, so they are currently good there except maybe safety. They will take one DT and one WR, or 2 WR and no DT. Still only one true Safety in 2 classes. 2 QBs, a kicker, 5 OL (center will commit), 1 TE committed in 2019 and they can't afford to lose any of those.
Bama is not done recruiting DL for the year of 2019...only signed 3 in 2018. With only 3 DL signed in 2018, I seriously doubt AL does not take the signed LOI for the #22 DT. That kid is from Georgia (Cheney)...not likely after accepting the verbal...but, possible. The odds of not accepting a signed LOI from an GA kid and signing two other DTs is not good. Saban cannot afford to renege on a verbal from a GA kid as that would be bad Public Relations in a hot bed of recruiting in a next door state to AL. The other DT is Dale from AL - no way Saban lets #9 in state of AL and #14 DT go from the home state.
However, if Tuitele, Sorrells, or Ika verbally commit before December &/or sign in December, Bama has no room for Sopsher. Saban will move on and lock up his class at 6 DL in December.
Wild Card: what if Kayvon Thibodeaux, the #1 WDE or Nakobe Dean #1 ILB wants to commit? the numbers for Bama become even tighter. Bama only signed two WRs and two APBs that can be used as WRs in 2018s class, one WR is committed for 2019...two spots open after RB and Center sign. The numbers are very tight at Bama now and they need WRs.
Bottom Line: Odds of Sophser ending up at Bama are not good and are in LSU's favor, not in Alabama's. LSU has 5 CBs and zero Safteys committed in 2019. LSU can afford to not accept a LOI from one of the CBs to accept a LOI from Rodney Sopsher and still sign a RB (Emery or Cain), DT (Sopsher), S or WR (Lee), DE/OLB, WR, & QB.
The key is to tell Ishmael Sopsher, "We have spots for you and Rodney, but you must both sign in December". If they don't both sign in December, then LSU is recruiting and taking commits from:
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Williams DT 6-2 / 272 4 star #23 DT - Memphis, TN
and other SDE including Pickering committed to MSU.
The numbers dictate that LSU probably signs Sopsher and Saban is unlikely to hold a spot if one of these other top DT prospects verbally commits or signs in December. Or, Saban is finished recruiting DTs for 2019 unless one of his verbals decommits.
Current 2019 Alabama Verbal Commits that will play DL:
Alfano SDE 6-4 / 285 4 star #3 SDE - NY
Eboigbe SDE 6-4.5 / 263 4 star #9 SDE - GA
Young SDE 6-4 / 279 4 star #10 SDE - MS
Dale DT 6-3 / 323 4 star #14 DT - AL
Cheney DT 6-2 / 270 4 star #22 DT - GA
Bama is recruiting four other DTs including:
Sopsher DT 6-3.5 / 334 5 star #1 DT - LA
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Bama will not sign more than 6 DL in 2019...why?
Because they have 21 Verbals and I seriously doubt they don't accept signed LOIs from the DL they have verbally committed as they are all very highly ranked and or geographically sensitive/important. Bama has 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 CB, 1 S, 1 ILB, 2WDE verbally committed.
They need:
1 RB - 1 committed-want & lead for 5 star Trey Sanders #1 RB
1-2 WR - 1 committed
1 DB - 3 committed and they run a 4 DB defense (but, not necessary in 2019)
1 LB - 3 committed and they run a 4 LB defense (but, not necessary in 2019)
1 DT - recruiting 4 hard
1 C - Clay Webb #1 Center from Oxford, AL will commit
That's 4 or 5 players of need and they only have 4 spots left. DB and LB are not a necessity in 2019 with the verbals they currently have and the 2018 class, but if the right recruit wanted to commit, Saban might take LB Dean or Thibodeaux.
RB & Center are sure bets. That's 23. Bama took 6 LBs, 5 CBs, & no true Safetys in 2018, so they are currently good there except maybe safety. They will take one DT and one WR, or 2 WR and no DT. Still only one true Safety in 2 classes. 2 QBs, a kicker, 5 OL (center will commit), 1 TE committed in 2019 and they can't afford to lose any of those.
Bama is not done recruiting DL for the year of 2019...only signed 3 in 2018. With only 3 DL signed in 2018, I seriously doubt AL does not take the signed LOI for the #22 DT. That kid is from Georgia (Cheney)...not likely after accepting the verbal...but, possible. The odds of not accepting a signed LOI from an GA kid and signing two other DTs is not good. Saban cannot afford to renege on a verbal from a GA kid as that would be bad Public Relations in a hot bed of recruiting in a next door state to AL. The other DT is Dale from AL - no way Saban lets #9 in state of AL and #14 DT go from the home state.
However, if Tuitele, Sorrells, or Ika verbally commit before December &/or sign in December, Bama has no room for Sopsher. Saban will move on and lock up his class at 6 DL in December.
Wild Card: what if Kayvon Thibodeaux, the #1 WDE or Nakobe Dean #1 ILB wants to commit? the numbers for Bama become even tighter. Bama only signed two WRs and two APBs that can be used as WRs in 2018s class, one WR is committed for 2019...two spots open after RB and Center sign. The numbers are very tight at Bama now and they need WRs.
Bottom Line: Odds of Sophser ending up at Bama are not good and are in LSU's favor, not in Alabama's. LSU has 5 CBs and zero Safteys committed in 2019. LSU can afford to not accept a LOI from one of the CBs to accept a LOI from Rodney Sopsher and still sign a RB (Emery or Cain), DT (Sopsher), S or WR (Lee), DE/OLB, WR, & QB.
The key is to tell Ishmael Sopsher, "We have spots for you and Rodney, but you must both sign in December". If they don't both sign in December, then LSU is recruiting and taking commits from:
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Williams DT 6-2 / 272 4 star #23 DT - Memphis, TN
and other SDE including Pickering committed to MSU.
The numbers dictate that LSU probably signs Sopsher and Saban is unlikely to hold a spot if one of these other top DT prospects verbally commits or signs in December. Or, Saban is finished recruiting DTs for 2019 unless one of his verbals decommits.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 12:29 am
21
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:41 pm to NoPandGglasses
Saban would instantly pull an offer from an already committed DLineman to get Sopster in this class.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:43 pm to NoPandGglasses
Great to see an insightful analysis with positive slants. So sick of the vomitful He gone comment.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:47 pm to TriDitty
quote:
Saban would instantly pull an offer from an already committed DLineman to get Sopster in this class.
Which one the AL or GA DT commits does he not accept?
Both are geographically sensitive and important to keep the pipeline going in those areas and he needs 6 DL in 2019...not likely he doesn't accept LOI in 2019 from a DT. Only recruited 3 in 2018 and all these verbals will sign LOI in December...same situation Orgeron is in...sign in December or Saban is moving on. Saban will be commited to all 5 DL prospects in December when they sign...he will only have room for 1 more DL after December.
Contrary to popular opinion, Saban is not a god and he does not get every recruit he wants. He is still subject to the recruiting laws of geography and personal reputation. Maybe to a lesser extent, but he knows they still matter and affect him.
And, Sopsher isn't signing until February "so he says"...
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 3:55 pm to NoPandGglasses
Tl;dr
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:00 pm to NoPandGglasses
A few things
When will people learn that numbers, both total class and positional, are irrelevant when it comes to Bama. Kids go regardless of numbers. They always make total class numbers work.
They are already planning for the Cheney kid from GA not signing so that eliminates one.
Both Sopshers were in Bama yesterday. You can bet if they can finagle a way to get Rodney in they will. Watch the blueshirt rule. They take advantage of it better than anyone.
Ishmael isnt gonna get turned away no matter whos in or who else commits. The visit to Bama for Missouri over a previously planned trip to LSU for UGA is very telling. It doesnt mean its over or anything like that but it doesnt look good. They didnt make that decision the week of the games with Rodney in tow for no reason. Something is being worked out and it doesnt bode well for us. Our staff has to stop getting blindsided or just flat out outdone by others with these kids.
The key, put it all on the line for Sopsher but also for the Utah kid and every other DL recruit we like until signing day. We have no pass rush now and the kids returning could be lesser if a couple of DL leave. Our current class has nothing in the way of improving the pass rush so where do we generate one from? Are we truly gonna put it all on Chiasson coming back and being the inly real threat? I hope not.
When will people learn that numbers, both total class and positional, are irrelevant when it comes to Bama. Kids go regardless of numbers. They always make total class numbers work.
They are already planning for the Cheney kid from GA not signing so that eliminates one.
Both Sopshers were in Bama yesterday. You can bet if they can finagle a way to get Rodney in they will. Watch the blueshirt rule. They take advantage of it better than anyone.
Ishmael isnt gonna get turned away no matter whos in or who else commits. The visit to Bama for Missouri over a previously planned trip to LSU for UGA is very telling. It doesnt mean its over or anything like that but it doesnt look good. They didnt make that decision the week of the games with Rodney in tow for no reason. Something is being worked out and it doesnt bode well for us. Our staff has to stop getting blindsided or just flat out outdone by others with these kids.
The key, put it all on the line for Sopsher but also for the Utah kid and every other DL recruit we like until signing day. We have no pass rush now and the kids returning could be lesser if a couple of DL leave. Our current class has nothing in the way of improving the pass rush so where do we generate one from? Are we truly gonna put it all on Chiasson coming back and being the inly real threat? I hope not.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:11 pm to NoPandGglasses
A very good post, and I had researched that some.
Another question to consider is this: Is Saban trying to recruit Sophser so that LSU won't get him?
I wish it would mean something for Sophser to realize he is a much more important recruit for LSU than he is for Bama.
Another question to consider is this: Is Saban trying to recruit Sophser so that LSU won't get him?
I wish it would mean something for Sophser to realize he is a much more important recruit for LSU than he is for Bama.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:14 pm to NoPandGglasses
OMG the use of rational thought on this board???? Is that allowed???
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:22 pm to lsufanva
quote:
A few things When will people learn that numbers, both total class and positional, are irrelevant when it comes to Bama. Kids go regardless of numbers. They always make total class numbers work. They are already planning for the Cheney kid from GA not signing so that eliminates one. Both Sopshers were in Bama yesterday. You can bet if they can finagle a way to get Rodney in they will. Watch the blueshirt rule. They take advantage of it better than anyone. Ishmael isnt gonna get turned away no matter whos in or who else commits. The visit to Bama for Missouri over a previously planned trip to LSU for UGA is very telling. It doesnt mean its over or anything like that but it doesnt look good. They didnt make that decision the week of the games with Rodney in tow for no reason. Something is being worked out and it doesnt bode well for us. Our staff has to stop getting blindsided or just flat out outdone by others with these kids. The key, put it all on the line for Sopsher but also for the Utah kid and every other DL recruit we like until signing day. We have no pass rush now and the kids returning could be lesser if a couple of DL leave. Our current class has nothing in the way of improving the pass rush so where do we generate one from? Are we truly gonna put it all on Chiasson coming back and being the inly real threat? I hope not.
LINK
"Blueshirting wasn't used until recently, and it still isn't common, but it's essentially another loophole to get around oversigning.
The blueshirt rule allows schools to put "unrecruited" athletes on scholarship once they arrive on campus, but count them against the next year's scholarship total, as long as they don't play. Here's what it means to be "recruited," according to the NCAA:
Was provided an official visit to the campus;
Had arranged, in-person, off-campus contact with a coach; or
Was sent an NLI or other written scholarship offer.
Coaches can contact players and have them on campus for unofficial visits — when the recruits pay their ways — without technically recruiting them. Essentially, as long as a recruit doesn't take an official visit or host one of that school's coaches, he wasn't "recruited" by that school."
A few things:
#1 you don't understand the Blue Shirt Rule
#2 Rodney is disqualified from Blue Shirt Rule because it was an official visit and he was hosted
#3 Numbers are not irrelevant to Bama or any other School - its 25 per year
#4 if Bama tries to Blue Shirt Rodney - LSU will object to SEC and NCAA
#5 Ogeron will not let Bama steal a LA kid/kids without objection if Bama tries the Blueshirt rule with Sopshers
#6 Saban will lead recruits on - Sopshers may see through him.
#7 Sopsher's want a LOI committable offer in 2019 for "both of them", not a promise for a 2020...they know how unethical and slippery Saban is: They know his nickname is "Tricky Nicky". They won't bite on Blue Shirt...
quote:
They are already planning for the Cheney kid from GA not signing so that eliminates one.
Link?
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:25 pm to NoPandGglasses
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Williams DT 6-2 / 272 4 star #23 DT - Memphis, TN
I would take any of these 2 over Sopsher and his brother right now. Nothing against the guy but 2 birds in the hand is better than not getting anyone. 
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Williams DT 6-2 / 272 4 star #23 DT - Memphis, TN
I would take any of these 2 over Sopsher and his brother right now. Nothing against the guy but 2 birds in the hand is better than not getting anyone.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 4:56 pm to NoPandGglasses
quote:
Which one the AL or GA DT commits does he not accept?
He doesn't necessarily have to pull a DL offer. Why wouldn't he just pull an offer from that Washingon DC RB?
Saban's not going to pass on an elite talent. If the guy wants in he'll find room.
In any event, one surefire way to lose him is to give him an ultimatum on when to sign. He wants to sign on NSD, then that's his prerogative. He's earned it.
My personal opinion is that he should be viewed as a luxury signing at this point. They need to prepare as if they won't get him, and if they do get him anyway, great.
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:11 pm to tigersbb
quote:
So sick of the vomitful He gone comment.
Agreed!
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:22 pm to rickyh
quote:
I would take any of these 2 over Sopsher and his brother right now.
Same here. I don't want a 2 for one deal. Recruiting numbers are too tight these days to do that IMO. But you can bet Sopsher will end up at Bama because his brother will suddenly walk on because the family will have come into the money to pay for his schooling. Maybe Bama cuts a check to another school to pay for the brothers education.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:35 pm to NoPandGglasses
First since you like linking things, link where rodneys visit was an official. Ishmaels wasnt.
Its well known by all Bama recruitniks that they plan to not sign Cheney. Its called research.
Now to the numbered items
1,2,4,5,7
I do understand the blueshirt rule. If Rodneys visit wasnt official then his unofficial clearly fits under the blueshirt exception as stated in your post. Also ever heard of a redshirt? Rodney goes on schloarship immediately upon entering, which in this case would be fall 19. He redshirts and has 2 years to play. Pretty simple. Only his scholarship goes to the 20 class not his entrance into school. Therefore if Rodney doesnt take an official or host Bama and does go under the blueshirt rule then O and LSU can object and bitch all they want. It would be meaningless.
3
Spout about 25 all you want but somehow Bama has plans to take more than 25 along with many other schools. You dont understand the numbers limits rule. Nothing has changed other than nonqualifiers still count whether they qualify or not unlike the past. There have been many, many links on this page explaining this.
Only part i agree with is the Saban leading kids on thing. However it doesnt seem to matter much does it.
I stand by my original post. Ill wait for that link of Rodneys visit being official. If provided then i will gladly come back and state that the blueshirt doesnt apply to Rodney.
As Les would say "Have a great day"
Its well known by all Bama recruitniks that they plan to not sign Cheney. Its called research.
Now to the numbered items
1,2,4,5,7
I do understand the blueshirt rule. If Rodneys visit wasnt official then his unofficial clearly fits under the blueshirt exception as stated in your post. Also ever heard of a redshirt? Rodney goes on schloarship immediately upon entering, which in this case would be fall 19. He redshirts and has 2 years to play. Pretty simple. Only his scholarship goes to the 20 class not his entrance into school. Therefore if Rodney doesnt take an official or host Bama and does go under the blueshirt rule then O and LSU can object and bitch all they want. It would be meaningless.
3
Spout about 25 all you want but somehow Bama has plans to take more than 25 along with many other schools. You dont understand the numbers limits rule. Nothing has changed other than nonqualifiers still count whether they qualify or not unlike the past. There have been many, many links on this page explaining this.
Only part i agree with is the Saban leading kids on thing. However it doesnt seem to matter much does it.
I stand by my original post. Ill wait for that link of Rodneys visit being official. If provided then i will gladly come back and state that the blueshirt doesnt apply to Rodney.
As Les would say "Have a great day"
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:37 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
He doesn't necessarily have to pull a DL offer. Why wouldn't he just pull an offer from that Washingon DC RB? Saban's not going to pass on an elite talent. If the guy wants in he'll find room.
Anything is possible. I'm not saying Sopsher doesn't end up at Bama. He could end up there. However, to predict the likelihood of something, you look at trends. In my experience in following recruiting, the trend analysis shows Bama is short on WRs and needs 2 "true" RBs in this class. In 2018 they took 2 APBs and 2 WRs.
This year they have 1 WR and 1 RB verbally committed. They need 2 RBs in 2019 and 2 more WRs in 2019 at a minimum if you follow most rosters and the trends.
We think (I assume like others) we are operating under the perameters that Ish Sopsher has laid out. "I'm not signing until NSD in February." With the December signing day, no coach is going to turn down a LOI of the recruits they want. In fact, as a coach, you better lock-up who you want on that day or you may not get a second chance.
This benefits recruits and coaches. If a kid won't sign in December, you better make a contingency plan as a coach. If a coach won't accept your LOI in December, you better look at another school.
If all 5 of Saban's DL prospects sign in December and Sopsher has not committed to either program, LSU is likely to have more room for him and his brother. That is all I am saying.
Furthermore, Saban cannot sign both Sopsher's in December or February...not enough room. LSU can and it's up to Orgeron to seal the deal with them in December with two signed LOIs from the Sopshers. After that, who knows what happens. But, if Saban signs 6 DL in December ( one of the uncommitted 4 above) and none are Sopsher, Sopsher will not end up at Bama. You can take that to the Bank...I Garonttee!!!
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 5:45 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 5:54 pm to NoPandGglasses
Honestly I would rather Get Sopsher by himself. If thats not doable, no hard feelings. Hopefully Getting lee would get our foot back in the door. Beating bama would help a ton obviously.
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:05 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
is sopsher that good or are we just keeping the fence up?
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:12 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
quote:
Honestly I would rather Get Sopsher by himself. If thats not doable, no hard feelings. Hopefully Getting lee would get our foot back in the door. Beating bama would help a ton obviously.
In an ideal world, I agree. But, LSU is not the LSU of the 2000s. Bama is recruiting nationally and competing for NCs every year. LSU has to keep instate top tear kids home if it hopes to compete with Bama and become a top 5 program again perrenially. That was the key to Saban's and Miles' success at LSU. Put a fence around Louisiana, win, and attract 40% to 50% of roster needs from out of state.
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:20 pm to Bayoutigre
quote:
is sopsher that good or are we just keeping the fence up?
consensus #1 DT in Nation in 2019...obviously the answer is yes to both questions.
Two of the top 2 DTs we are hot after are from the west...geographically speaking, an area LSU has had very little success recruiting successfully. The other is from FL...
When recruiting, you have to look at how many D1 football programs are between your school and the recruit. The more there are between your school and the recruit, the harder it is to get a signed LOI. Terry Bowden said this in an interview one time. He is a former HC at Auburn. It is a recruiting axiom that holds true most of the time - even Saban has to deal with geography.
This post was edited on 10/14/18 at 6:27 pm
Posted on 10/14/18 at 6:40 pm to rickyh
quote:I will take the first 2 DTs that commit, regardless of who they are. Sopsher is good, but not signing him isn't going to destroy LSU.
Faatui Tuitele DT 6-4 / 299 5 star #3 DT - HI
Jaquaze Sorrells DT 6-1.5 / 292 4 star #7 DT - FL
Siaki Ika DT 6-3 / 351 4 star #11 DT - UT
Williams DT 6-2 / 272 4 star #23 DT - Memphis, TN
I would take any of these 2 over Sopsher and his brother right now. Nothing against the guy but 2 birds in the hand is better than not getting anyone.
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