re: what is your ideal 401 K balance at retirement?

Global Rich List

Take a peak where your income ranks you amongst all those in the world. Stop stressing and relax. You'll live longer!

Can’t take a lump sum. Also didn’t mention that is my share and my wife’s share of my pension.

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What % rate of return are y’all using for the estimated retirement nest egg? 6% or so?

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If you want to use the S&P 500 as a benchmark, based on history, plugging in a 7% real return is a safe and realistic figure for long term investors.

Ideal...whatever the balance is at 59 1/2 years of age -- GONE

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If someone has not returned a average of 10-12% investing in equities over the long term like the last 30 years they did something seriously wrong.

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I created a spreadsheet that randomizes returns between 0 and 15% with a gradual drop to 0-8% as I anticipate my approach to be less aggressive. Since this is a planning tool meant to run thousands of times to determine the likelihood of hitting a certain number at a certain age, then I don't want the 20-25% years included. I don't want to ever have to count on those.

ETA: and expecting 12% in equities is simply foolish over that long of a period. The S&P is only at 6% average over the last 22 years.

If debts are paid, today's money at $400k to $500k should be more than sufficient. Assume inflation at 4% and retirement about 30 years from now and then we are looking to need around $1.3M to $1.6M.

Assuming current contributions and a 6% market average growth, then I am projecting $2.7M on top of social security and defined benefit pensions.

I do have cash value life insurance intended to assist with the kids college. But I'm trying to encourage them to go into the military academies (and hopefully use that money towards cars and car insurance). I recognize that this could still put a wrench in the retirement plans. But hopefully, the house will be paid for in 10 years and additional resources for college may be available at that time.

I am married, so I'm carrying the retirement for the two of us.

buy at least one Mega million ticket per week

Why the hell are you responding to me?

You should have your distribution have negative values and just change the mean the the historical average.

Assuming you are using a tool like @RISK to run a Monte Carlo, then use something like a triangular distribution. I think you are being overly aggressive never assuming losses in a given year.