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re: Winter thread: 3.5" officially in BR on the 8th day of meteorological winter!!
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
Lufkin is reporting snow.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:35 pm to Janky
It's starting to stick here in Austin
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:48 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
New Orleans LA
745 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION... Still an over-running pattern sounding but with some significant features that are lending clues to what may unfold. Temperature 41F at the surface only cools to 38F at 1200 ft, then remains at 38F to 2700ft, which is sub-cloud dry air. Saturated inversion layer from 850mb/4300ft, 31F at base warms to 39F at 720mb/9000ft. Then moist adiabatic lapse rate to tropopause found at 100mb with a temperature of -70C. Winds NE 20-30kt surface to 4900ft, SW 10-108 kt above 4900ft. Peak wind 226/108kt at 40.0kft.
Some winter micro-meteorology...a top down approach for precipitation determination shows snow formation from 20kft falling into a dry layer between 14kft and 11.5kft as snow virga that melts in the warm layer from 9kft down. A 7 degree dewpoint depression at 2600ft would yield a wet-bulb around 2C/35F, which means a cold rain but still too warm to support sleet or snow. How tough is the call right now? Currently 3 freezing levels noted, the primary one at 12.9kft where the bright band melting level is noted on radar, then a lower level shallow freezing layer between 4999ft and 4852ft - a mere 147 ft of depth for any warm raindrop to transition into an ice pellet. As more rain aloft falls into the column, it will slowly deepen the depth of the freeze zone to support better sleet production later tonight. It will still take more cold air advection in the low and sub-cloud layer to support snow production, which may still arrive by daybreak Friday.
Surface analysis shows 40s surface temps for much of LA and south MS at this time. Dual Pol radar hydrometeor classification loop does show a transition zone aloft aligned from roughly McComb to Lafayette, LA with dendritic snow north of this zone and liquid rain south of the zone. This is the more favored corridor for any wintry precipitation in time, but cold air advection will have to become more pronounced and agressive to cool the lower part of the sounding. Did receive a report of rain mixing with sleet near Easleyville in St Helena Parish and this does match well with the dual pol data.
National Weather Service
New Orleans LA
745 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION... Still an over-running pattern sounding but with some significant features that are lending clues to what may unfold. Temperature 41F at the surface only cools to 38F at 1200 ft, then remains at 38F to 2700ft, which is sub-cloud dry air. Saturated inversion layer from 850mb/4300ft, 31F at base warms to 39F at 720mb/9000ft. Then moist adiabatic lapse rate to tropopause found at 100mb with a temperature of -70C. Winds NE 20-30kt surface to 4900ft, SW 10-108 kt above 4900ft. Peak wind 226/108kt at 40.0kft.
Some winter micro-meteorology...a top down approach for precipitation determination shows snow formation from 20kft falling into a dry layer between 14kft and 11.5kft as snow virga that melts in the warm layer from 9kft down. A 7 degree dewpoint depression at 2600ft would yield a wet-bulb around 2C/35F, which means a cold rain but still too warm to support sleet or snow. How tough is the call right now? Currently 3 freezing levels noted, the primary one at 12.9kft where the bright band melting level is noted on radar, then a lower level shallow freezing layer between 4999ft and 4852ft - a mere 147 ft of depth for any warm raindrop to transition into an ice pellet. As more rain aloft falls into the column, it will slowly deepen the depth of the freeze zone to support better sleet production later tonight. It will still take more cold air advection in the low and sub-cloud layer to support snow production, which may still arrive by daybreak Friday.
Surface analysis shows 40s surface temps for much of LA and south MS at this time. Dual Pol radar hydrometeor classification loop does show a transition zone aloft aligned from roughly McComb to Lafayette, LA with dendritic snow north of this zone and liquid rain south of the zone. This is the more favored corridor for any wintry precipitation in time, but cold air advection will have to become more pronounced and agressive to cool the lower part of the sounding. Did receive a report of rain mixing with sleet near Easleyville in St Helena Parish and this does match well with the dual pol data.
This post was edited on 12/7/17 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:52 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
I think the models kind of missed the mark in central Texas. Here's the forecast discussion from NWS AUS/SAT from 3pm:
quote:
There are some HiRes models that suggest few snow flurries across the Hill Country tonight as a pulse of energy moves across the area. Therefore, even though is not mentioned for the tonight weather forecast period, don`t be surprised if you see some flurries this evening. No snow accumulation expected.
This post was edited on 12/7/17 at 7:56 pm
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:53 pm to LSUJuice
LINK
quote:
LSU will be closed tomorrow, Friday, Dec. 8, until 10 a.m., at which time all activities, including final exams, will resume.
Exams scheduled prior to 10 a.m. will be held at 8 p.m., in the same room as originally assigned. Those students with conflicts should contact their professor.
All university essential employees should report to work at their usual time, unless otherwise directed by their supervisor.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
shite. That doesn't sound good. frick.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:55 pm to the paradigm
quote:
Just spoke to my stepson in North Austin. He said no snow, just sleet
Im in North Austin and got a good 2 hours of snow. Accumulation on cars, grass and plants.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:56 pm to Bunta
Being closed until 10 am is about as useful as a shite flavored lollipop
This post was edited on 12/7/17 at 7:56 pm
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:57 pm to bayoubengals88
LSU says sunny and dry roads at 10am
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:59 pm to Bunta
Holy shite 8pm final. So glad I am not in school.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 7:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
from what i gather from the discussion is that the window for snow is extremely small and they are still not 100% sure if it happens or not, so basically snow forecasting in SE LA!
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:00 pm to Mudminnow
quote:
LSU says sunny and dry roads at 10am
Lol...so commuters are fricked that are traveling before then?
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:03 pm to GeauxTigers2525
Jay Grimes just said 1-2" in BR with a few models showing more. Nothing in New Orleans.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:05 pm to Clark W Griswold
quote:
Jay Grimes just said 1-2" in BR with a few models showing more
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:05 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
so commuters are fricked that are traveling before then?
..its an inch of snow that will melt once it hits the road
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:05 pm to Clark W Griswold
Recently or at 6PM?
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:06 pm to rocket31
The ice/sleet is the problem champ.
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:07 pm to chicano12
quote:
Recently or at 6PM?
Just now WAFB Facebook Live
Posted on 12/7/17 at 8:08 pm to LaBR4
Excellent! Just show me the snow bro!
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