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re: I'm being offered Mike Evans for Greg Zuerlien lol, should I?
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:47 am to GynoSandberg
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:47 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Marshon Lattimore's historic season is well documented, check it out
I know. But was Marshon shadowing Evans every play? Or is Marshon staying on one side of the field?
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:51 am to jimithing11
quote:
The easy response is guys like Butker, Prater and Forbath of late have all been extremely value in terms of 15-20 point outbursts So guess that means i should go trade AJ Green for Forbath because AJ is “underperforming”
That’s not my argument at all. Almost any receiver or running back or any other position player is worth more than an average starting kicker. Even kickers 2-5. Because kickers generally are tough to predict and score close to the same amounts over a season. But Greg is having a historic season and is in a completely different category in points above replacement. It’s like Dustin Hopkins vs AJ Green. Go look at their points per game differentials. It’s massive. Greg is the only kicker worth anything though
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 10:53 am
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:57 am to Upperdecker
You are still talking about a kicker that averages 2 to 3 points more than others of that position vs a top 10 WR.
A top 10 WR sliding right into your flex spot? Depending on his flex you could be talking 5 to 8 or more points per game with the potential of very large scores 20+ points in a game. And you're choosing a kicker that averages 2 to 3 points per game more than other kickers?
A top 10 WR sliding right into your flex spot? Depending on his flex you could be talking 5 to 8 or more points per game with the potential of very large scores 20+ points in a game. And you're choosing a kicker that averages 2 to 3 points per game more than other kickers?
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 11:02 am
Posted on 11/8/17 at 10:59 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
You're also basing your value on 10 team leagues and arbitrarily assigning a flex value range. This can be spun in many different directions, like someone said, it doesnt exist in a vacuum. There are so many moving parts and factors that simply cannot be accounted for
Yes I did assume a 10 team league, since that’s the standard. Many leagues are larger, but I’m going with the standard here. And the flex value range is pretty standard. In a 10 team league, your average flex is a RB or WR ranked in the top 25 of their position. Assuming every team has a standard spread of players in their skill positions. That’s an assumption yes, but we know nothing about this guy’s team, and he could be WR rich or WR poor or average
The main point I’m making with this is Greg has some value and this isn’t as laughable a trade as it sounds when you don’t know anything about their stats. It’s not “lol this guy wants to trade me a WR1 for a random kicker”
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:00 am to Upperdecker
quote:
But was Marshon shadowing Evans every play?
yes
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:03 am to noonan
quote:
You are still talking about a kicker that averages 2 to 3 points more than others of that position vs a top 10 WR.
4 points more. But go look at the difference in points per game between an avg WR1 and a flex WR. It’s less than 4. I’ve already shown all of that. It doesn’t matter where you get your points, this guy is giving you 4 more than the other team’s kicker. Evans in your flex is only giving you 2.5 on avg more than your opponent’s flex (in a 10 team league)
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:05 am to Upperdecker
quote:
And the flex value range is pretty standard. In a 10 team league, your average flex is a RB or WR ranked in the top 25 of their position.
I don't think that is right.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:05 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
yes
Ok, then you throw that out. Unless your team has championships in week 17 (pretty sure 16 is standard last week now though), in which case Evans gets shut down by Lattimore again
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:07 am to noonan
quote:
don't think that is right.
In a 10 team league, based on averages, each team has 1 top 10 RB, 1 top 10 WR, 1 RB between 11-20, 1 WR between 11-20, and one RB or WR between 20-25 at their position. That’s an average. It’s simple dividing evenly amongst teams available
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:09 am to Upperdecker
You're right, I glossed over the "at their position" part.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:12 am to noonan
This is gonna go down as a legendary Fantasy board thread.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:19 am to Upperdecker
quote:
In a 10 team league, based on averages, each team has 1 top 10 RB, 1 top 10 WR, 1 RB between 11-20, 1 WR between 11-20, and one RB or WR between 20-25 at their position. That’s an average. It’s simple dividing evenly amongst teams available
Um, this logic is flawed. That spread may be true based on projections after the draft, but very rarely, if ever, does it work that way. I just looked quickly at my league and not a single team in it has this spread of players.
A few teams have multiple top 10 WRs or multiple top 10 RBs. Others don't have a top 10 player at any position. Others have a bunch of players ranked in the teens, etc...
But over the course of the season it's very very unlikely that multiple teams will have a true RB1, true RB2, true WR1, true WR2, and a true FLEX.
If your team does work out that way, it's probably one of the best in the league and definitely not the average.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:23 am to Upperdecker
quote:
That’s not my argument at all. Almost any receiver or running back or any other position player is worth more than an average starting kicker. Even kickers 2-5. Because kickers generally are tough to predict and score close to the same amounts over a season. But Greg is having a historic season and is in a completely different category in points above replacement. It’s like Dustin Hopkins vs AJ Green. Go look at their points per game differentials. It’s massive. Greg is the only kicker worth anything though
Since you are hung up with recency bias with Mike Evans, lets look at GZ's last 4 games
3
11
17
17
By comparison, Kai Forbath over the past 4 weeks
8
13
24
16
If my math is OK, that's 61-48 advantage.
I can keep going all day if you'd like
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:24 am to Tigereye10005
quote:
over the course of the season it's very very unlikely that multiple teams will have a true RB1, true RB2, true WR1, true WR2, and a true FLEX. If your team does work out that way, it's probably one of the best in the league and definitely not the average.
One, I did say it’s an average. But it definitely is an average, assuming your league isnt leaving startable players on the waiver wire. Some teams will be rich or poor, but in a 10 team league it’s going to average out to the spread I said when everyone gives an effort
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:24 am to Tigereye10005
That's what I was getting at. Your flex is not typically going to be a top 30 player at their position. In some cases sure. But unless there are never injuries and nobody misses on their draft this is not going to be typical.
This might be the case for the top teams in a league and they probably have a couple top 30 players on their bench. But the average team only wishes this was the case.
This might be the case for the top teams in a league and they probably have a couple top 30 players on their bench. But the average team only wishes this was the case.
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 11:31 am
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:26 am to jimithing11
quote:
Since you are hung up with recency bias with Mike Evans, lets look at GZ's last 4 games 3 11 17 17 By comparison, Kai Forbath over the past 4 weeks 8 13 24 16 If my math is OK, that's 61-48 advantage. I can keep going all day if you'd like
Post the full season and account for bye weeks. I’m not using any bias here. Full season for every player, using average score for their games played. ESPN posts those, it’s pretty simple.
Here’s some help:
Zuerlein avgs 14.1 ppg
Forbath avgs 10.9 ppg
Forbath is the 3rd ranked kicker
Difference of 3.2 ppg
And here’s an example with Evans:
Evans avgs 12.2 ppg
Nelson Agholor (WR 30 in avg ppg) avgs 9.7 ppg
Difference of 2.5 ppg
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 11:33 am
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:30 am to Upperdecker
You keep changing your narrative
Don't get defensive when someone calls you out for your own words
You came in here trying to play defense lawyer, citing Evans' poor play of late and the fact that he is suspended and has an injured quarterback
You are taking into account what he's done lately, thus recency bias
All I did was take that same recent POV and apply it to your kicker argument.
Don't get defensive when someone calls you out for your own words
You came in here trying to play defense lawyer, citing Evans' poor play of late and the fact that he is suspended and has an injured quarterback
You are taking into account what he's done lately, thus recency bias
All I did was take that same recent POV and apply it to your kicker argument.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:32 am to Upperdecker
Exactly take away the bye week and replaces it with Greg’s 27 point week 4 game
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:34 am to Upperdecker
quote:
But it definitely is an average, assuming your league isnt leaving startable players on the waiver wire. Some teams will be rich or poor, but in a 10 team league it’s going to average out to the spread I said when everyone gives an effort
But no, no it's not going to work out that way. I mean I guess if you're in that league from this thread where like the whole league is tied at 5-4 it might .
But in most leagues, it's not going to work out where most of the teams average out that way. Some teams will be good and others will suck. Again, you're welcome to go do the calculations. But I'll bet that in most leagues, a team that has it's positions average out to have 2 TOP 10 players, 2 TOP 20 players, and another TOP 25 player all at the RB/WR position is going to be one of the best teams in the league.
This brings back to the argument about position scarcity. Because, I bet most teams in most leagues start a top 10 QB, top 10 TE, and top 10 K most weeks. Why? because you only start one of those and people don't generally hold on to ones that drop far outside that range - this isn't true for RB/WR.
Posted on 11/8/17 at 11:34 am to jimithing11
quote:
You came in here trying to play defense lawyer, citing Evans' poor play of late and the fact that he is suspended and has an injured quarterback
I said that after I cited statistics showing Zuerlien’s value. Read the thread man. The majority of posts in the thread are about season averages
This post was edited on 11/8/17 at 11:35 am
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