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re: Joey Votto Hall of Fame Chances?
Posted on 8/25/17 at 11:25 am to Vicks Kennel Club
Posted on 8/25/17 at 11:25 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Rockies are often underrated in adjusted stats.
True but OPS doesn't lie and Heltons road splits are dramatic.
1
Posted on 8/25/17 at 11:27 am to Baloo
Votto has a game that ages extremely well, that's what I'm most confused about in your post. Unless he goes blind, he's gonna have 3-5 more really strong years.
He's an elite contact hitter who hits home runs because of how fricking good he is, he's not really a traditional power hitter. Don't get me wrong, he has power and those numbers may drop as he ages, but that won't really hurt him as a player. He will end up with 350 HRs, 1000+ RBIs which is a pretty good start since the focus point of his HOF resume is that he's literally the best player (outside of steroid bonds) at getting on base of the last like 60 years. His WAR numbers will easily be within the acceptable HOF range as well.
As for the all star thing, after this year he will have fricking 6 top 7 finishes in MVP voting but only 5 all star games. He missed the all star game three times and finished in the top 7 of MVP voting two of those years (hurt the other year). So I can't seem to find it in me to care about all star games when it comes to votto.
Oh and he's about to win an MVP this year so that probably won't hurt.
He's an elite contact hitter who hits home runs because of how fricking good he is, he's not really a traditional power hitter. Don't get me wrong, he has power and those numbers may drop as he ages, but that won't really hurt him as a player. He will end up with 350 HRs, 1000+ RBIs which is a pretty good start since the focus point of his HOF resume is that he's literally the best player (outside of steroid bonds) at getting on base of the last like 60 years. His WAR numbers will easily be within the acceptable HOF range as well.
As for the all star thing, after this year he will have fricking 6 top 7 finishes in MVP voting but only 5 all star games. He missed the all star game three times and finished in the top 7 of MVP voting two of those years (hurt the other year). So I can't seem to find it in me to care about all star games when it comes to votto.
Oh and he's about to win an MVP this year so that probably won't hurt.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 11:28 am
Posted on 8/25/17 at 11:27 am to barry
I've been following the Rockies this year and one of the announcers made a good point with regard to the home vs away splits for Rockies players. In addition to the thinner air improving batting stats, they get so used to how the ball breaks at altitude that they are at a disadvantage when they go to sealevel.
Not sure if it's true, but I thought it was interesting.
Not sure if it's true, but I thought it was interesting.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 12:53 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
As for the all star thing, after this year he will have fricking 6 top 7 finishes in MVP voting but only 5 all star games. He missed the all star game three times and finished in the top 7 of MVP voting two of those years (hurt the other year). So I can't seem to find it in me to care about all star games when it comes to votto.
All-Star games shouldn't have much bearing on if you get in the HOF. The year he won MVP he didn't even make the All-Star team until the final fan vote. He also didn't make it in 2015 when he finished 3rd in MVP voting (granted, he didn't have a great first half that season, but still). And I definitely agree with you about his skill set aging well. On-base skills typically don't diminish until much later than power. He will also benefit from the fact that in 12 or so years, when he is eligible, voters will probably be much more sabr-friednly than they are now.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 3:35 pm to Baloo
People find Votto unlikable? He isn't outgoing but is incredibly bright. I love hearing him talk about his approach. Anyway, I would say that he has a slightly above average chance at the HOF at this stage and that he has a great chance of aging well--but must avoid injuries that have really hurt his chances so far.
I like reading your posts; this is one of the times I disagree with much of what you wrote.
Votto has a game that ages well as others have said. His power will decline but his hitting skills are elite. Usually bat speed drops and K's rise at his age; Votto's strikeouts have dropped a lot in the past year particularly this season.
What doesn't get brought up enough RE: Votto: Although he is 33 (past prime seasons) with counting stats that are borderline or worse for HOF, the counting stats he has put up are really hurt by him being injured/recovering from injury in his age 28-30 seasons. He was having an all time season in 2012 until he got hurt (his OPS+ is incredible and masks that he was nowhere near the same player when he returned from injury at the end of the year). He was good in 2011 but his injury sapped his power, then he lost almost all of 2014.
He won't keep up what he has done the past 3 years but he will likely make up some of those numbers if he avoids serious injury (easier said than done).
Also, even though he needs to improve his counting stats, that will never be the Votto argument. He is well aware of advanced stats and has modeled his game on them. Those numbers will be his key argument. And while voters haven't changed that much, they have changed and you have expect that they will only change further toward advanced stats in the next 10-15 years when he is on the ballot. His case will be extremely strong here.
He reminds me a lot of Larry Walker with better on base skills and without the Coors Field advantage. Walker's counting numbers are better because of the era and Coors but Votto's advanced stats are better. And Walker's main problem was injuries. If Votto avoids those, I think he will make it in. But no slam dunk at this point.
quote:
Baloo
I like reading your posts; this is one of the times I disagree with much of what you wrote.
quote:
But yeah, he needs to raise his profile and he's 33. How many more years do you think he has left? If he's like this for another few years, then yeah. Much better chance. But that would be a highly unusual aging pattern. Players with Votto's skill set (the old man skills of power and patience) tend to age terribly.
Votto has a game that ages well as others have said. His power will decline but his hitting skills are elite. Usually bat speed drops and K's rise at his age; Votto's strikeouts have dropped a lot in the past year particularly this season.
What doesn't get brought up enough RE: Votto: Although he is 33 (past prime seasons) with counting stats that are borderline or worse for HOF, the counting stats he has put up are really hurt by him being injured/recovering from injury in his age 28-30 seasons. He was having an all time season in 2012 until he got hurt (his OPS+ is incredible and masks that he was nowhere near the same player when he returned from injury at the end of the year). He was good in 2011 but his injury sapped his power, then he lost almost all of 2014.
He won't keep up what he has done the past 3 years but he will likely make up some of those numbers if he avoids serious injury (easier said than done).
Also, even though he needs to improve his counting stats, that will never be the Votto argument. He is well aware of advanced stats and has modeled his game on them. Those numbers will be his key argument. And while voters haven't changed that much, they have changed and you have expect that they will only change further toward advanced stats in the next 10-15 years when he is on the ballot. His case will be extremely strong here.
He reminds me a lot of Larry Walker with better on base skills and without the Coors Field advantage. Walker's counting numbers are better because of the era and Coors but Votto's advanced stats are better. And Walker's main problem was injuries. If Votto avoids those, I think he will make it in. But no slam dunk at this point.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 3:49 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
He needs his career years to happen in 2018 and 2019.
A couple more hr. A batting championship.
Lead majors in something even if its doubles and walks.
Being the 6th guy in mvp voting is nada.
He needs one more even if its debatable which of three guys it should be.
A couple more hr. A batting championship.
Lead majors in something even if its doubles and walks.
Being the 6th guy in mvp voting is nada.
He needs one more even if its debatable which of three guys it should be.
This post was edited on 8/25/17 at 3:50 pm
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